Last week the government announced new guidelines for pap smears and mammograms. In short, the recommendations are – women don’t need to have the tests as early or as often.

Last evening I heard a doctor state that the Medical board – appointed under President Bush – that reached these conclusions, recognizes that if their recommendations are followed, more women will die of cancer.

SO WHAT GIVES?

This is a prime example of how government run health care will work. Treatment and diagnostic tests will be administered based on statistics and the advice of accountants.

I don’t know the exact numbers, but – for the sake of argument – let’s say that only 10% of pap smears come back with a positive result – meaning there are cancerous cells present. That means 90% of the tests were a waste of time and money. Think of all the money that can be saved by delaying the beginning of testing and reducing the frequency… and only ten percent of the women tested will have a problem due to the money-saving measures.

The same scenario would hold for mammograms. Why waste all the time and money if most of the test results are negative?

Come on America! It’s time to save money.

We sincerely send our regrets to those who die because your cancer wasn’t discovered soon enough to save you.

Let’s hear it for Government Run Health Care!

Good morning!

Today in class you’ll be working on a Fathom activity to practice using the software and making graphs. If you don’t finish in class you’re homework will be to finish it tonight.

Tomorrow be ready for a ch. 12 quiz and another Fathom activity.

France Telecom employees gather in memory of a colleague who committed suicide last July. Photograph: Anne-christine Poujoulat/AFP/Getty Images

(source)

A morbid one in our ongoing series on mistakes and lies in statistics, from a news report some weeks ago:

French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde Thursday voiced her support for France Telecom’s chief executive, who is coming under increased pressure from French unions and opposition politicians over a recent spate of suicides at the company.

Ms. Lagarde summoned France Telecom CEO Didier Lombard to a meeting after the telecommunications company confirmed earlier this week that one of its employees had committed suicide. It was the 24th suicide at the company in 18 months.

In a statement released after the meeting, Ms. Lagarde said she had “full confidence” that Mr. Lombard could get the company through “this difficult and painful moment.”

The French state, which owns a 27% stake in France Telecom, has been keeping a close eye on the company, following complaints by unions that a continuing restructuring plan at the company is putting workers under undue stress.

The suicide rate among the company’s 100,000 employees is in line with France’s national average. Still, unions say that the relocation of staff to different branches of the company around France has added pressure onto employees and their families.

On Tuesday, a spokesman for France’s opposition Socialist Party called for France Telecom’s top management to take responsibility for the suicides and step down. Several hundred France Telecom workers also took to the streets to protest against working conditions.

In the statement released after Thursday’s meeting, France’s Finance Ministry said Mr. Lombard had set up an emergency hotline aimed at providing help to depressed workers. The company has also increased the number of psychologists available to staffers, according to the statement. (source)

More on the problems caused by averages is here.

198342     สถิติเบื้องต้น     Introduction to Statistics

แนวคิดและระเบียบวิธีการทางสถิติ วิธีการเก็บรวบรวมข้อมูล การแจกแจงความถี่การวัดแนวโน้มเข้าสู่ส่วนกลาง และการกระจาย การเสนอข้อมูล การทดสอบสมมติฐาน การวิเคราะห์ ความถดถอยและสหสัมพันธ์เบื้องต้น สถิติชีพ ตลอดจนการประยุกต์ทางการพยาบาล

(Concepts and methodology of statistics, methods of data collection, frequency distribution, measurements of central tendency and dispersion, data presentation, hypothesis testing, analysis of regression and simple correlation, vital statistics, and application of statistics into nursing.)

(198342 มหาวิทยาลัยเกษตรศาสตร์)

199391     สถิติเพื่อการวิจัยทางสาธารณสุข     Statistics for Public Health Research

การทดสอบสมมุติฐานการวิจัยทางสาธารณสุข การแปรผลและการนำเสนอผลการวิเคราะห์ข้อมูล การทดสอบคุณภาพเครื่องมือการวิจัย การใช้โปรแกรมสำเร็จรูปเพื่อวิเคราะห์ข้อมูลในงานวิจัยสาธารณสุข

(Hypothesis testing, interpretation and presentation validity and reliability, testing of instrument. Using statistical package to analyze data in the public health research work.)

(199391 มหาวิทยาลัยเกษตรศาสตร์)

The past 12 to 18 months for our economy and that of the world has been unlike any we have seen for a generation.  It is probably understandable then that the property market is not is also not following the well worn path of previous years.

Traditionally Spring and the early Summer months provide an abundance of listings and new stock.  Stock levels normally peak either side of the Christmas holidays and then slowly dwindle down to the middle of winter before rising again, but this year is a little different.  New listings are still coming on the market, just not at the rate they normally do at this time of the year.

Nerang First National monitors the stock levels of all property for sale in the district, irrespective of what agent it is listed with. This provides us significant market intelligence and allows us to analyse the whole market, not just what we see as the highest selling agent in the district. Every week we take a snapshot of how many properties are on the market for sale and how many are marked as under contract.

Nerang

We can see  the property “for sale” levels have increased in recent months but not even to the levels experienced post GFC levels of last summer. It seems unlikely that we will ever have more than 200 properties actively for sale in the suburb of Nerang for quite awhile.

Carrara

Properties for sale in Carrara have dropped from the peaks of last summer to winter and we have not seen any Spring and Summer increase at all. The levels are holding fairly stable.

Highland Park

Highland Park has been the only local suburb that appeared to be following the traditional trend with new property listings increasin g from mid winter however the traditional Spring and Summer rush seemed to stop in its tracks in August and since then for sale levels have been on the decline.

All Three Suburbs Combined

When we combine all three primary suburbs in our trade area we see that stock levels have steadily fallen about 20% from their peaks of last summer. Last summers levels were down on previous years as it was immediately after the GFC meltdown which peaked at September 2008.  There is seems to be very little indication anything will turn the trend around over the next few months. Under normal market conditions this graph would have the for sale rate increasing over the past couple of months back up to 600 or more properties.

The level of property for sale is effectively the supply side of a the typical supply and demand relationship in real estate. With supply at such low levels relatively and under contract levels remaining steady there is a potential for an imbalance and for demand to start outstripping supply.  This in turn  could be why many  industry commentators are suggesting we might continue to see significant increases in property values over the next few years.

Overview

Real Estate is just like many other industries and 80% of the business is being done by 20% of the agents. In contrast to many in the industry Nerang First National has actually had an amazing 12 months including being selected as the REIQ Queensland Agency of the Year and a Finalist in the REIA Australian Agency of the Year in the medium agency category. Despite the economic downturn that reduced industry turnover by as much as 50 and 60% Nerang First National was able to increase sales numbers, increase revenue and even expand the sales team. 2009 has been a fantastic year!

Traditionally as the market tightens up property owners are far more selective in which agent they choose.  This has helped keep our stock levels relatively high even as property for sale levels in the district have dropped. This has resulted in many a real estate agent window filled with “Sold” properties only because they have no new listings to replace them with. Some agents are being forced to display the same property up to 3 or 4 times in their window with different photos.

Real Estate is like many other industries in that you cant make sales without stock. With so many agents out there at the moment who are running very low for available listings to sell over the next few months you can expect to see your letterboxes jam packed with salespeople “begging for listings”.

Headings like “Homes Wanted Urgently”, “Help.. I need more listings” will be familiar catch cries like never before.  Some agents will have special flyers printed up like a post card commemorating each sale and inviting you to take advantage of the buyers who missed out.  Just like always each agency no matter how small they are is going to claim they are the market leader with in house produced graphs and statistics but logic tells you there can be only one industry leader.  As a home owner you need to look through the puffery and find an experienced and skilled team who can get the job done in all market conditions.

If your thinking of selling then the  competition for your listing is going to be intense. Regardless of which way property prices move you will always want to achieve the highest possible price at that time so the single most important thing you will need to remember is that the best indicator of future performance is past success.

You can request a free market appraisal online or contact one of the sales team at 07 55960055 to find out for yourself why the real estate industry ranks Nerang First National as one of Australia’s best real estate agents.

While reorganizing some old files I ran across this graphic I put together for a statistics 101 tutoring lab. Click the image above to get the full image [PDF] explaining how to calculate the standard deviation for a sample.

Dupre´Logistics monitors it’s drivers.

Statistics suggest that a significant percentage of accidents are caused by human error. A major contributing factor in a number of these cases is fatigue. It is important to understand what fatigue is and how to deal with it. Dupre´Logistics hold their team accountable by measuring fatigue through Circadian Technologies’ CAS System.

Fatigue is more than just a general feeling of tiredness. It is a loss of our ability to remain vigilant, to perform a task, to maintain situational awareness, to think clearly and logically, to react appropriately and to maintain motor coordination skills. Very simply, when a person is fatigued, he is more prone to making mistakes. Fatigue affects everyone, even the most professional and dedicated people. It is not a question of mind over matter. Rather, it’s the body’s natural physiological response to working too much or getting too little sleep or rest.

Fatigue is monitored by examining the following 9 variables:

• Average sleep length per day
• Percentage of time below red and yellow thresholds on duty
• Average duration of episodes below red on duty
• Average alertness score while awake
• Number of recovery breaks per week
• Hours of work per week
• Hours of work per shift
• Biological limitations for sleep recovery
• Time of day activity occurs

Source:  Circadian 24/7 Workforce Solutions and Dupre´ Logistics

Microtrends states that there are 109,000,000 heterosexual women and 98,000,000 heterosexual men. The author suggests that when we take into account the black men in prison or who die young due drugs, crime, etc. Black Women are at an even greater disadvantage. Bottom line is that some women will never get married and men never had it so good with all of these women chasing them.

For the sake of maintaining my speaking/writing decorum, I’ll simply say…’whatever’ to these statistics.   There are stats that  state the presence of more black men in HIGHER EDUCATION institutions than in jail–depends on who’s doing the math…and how.

Consider also the lopsidedness of these numbers:

When there is a large number of black women experiencing the very same fate as some of these black men, the data begs to be both qualified and quantified times over. My point is that LOVE has more to do with the matter/condition of the heart–and not perceived numbers. I am already excited for ANY woman’s next ‘growth spurt’ who has made a conscious decision to lay fear aside when it comes to finding their soul mate.

Many women fear the feelings of loniless when in truth it should not be feared at all, but embraced completely.  All of our lives [men included] are nothing than a growth experience, and how we process life’s lessons.   That is ALL any of us were put here to do.   As you lose some of the leaves of a broken relationship or marriage, new ones are going to take its place.  And chances are high that YOU already possess the tools you need during the process of their unfolding. So when you decide to get comfortable accepting the emotional ‘you’, you will realize all the more your truest power and essence of your femininity.

…How I love black women!

Mathspig is dizzy with excitement over worldwide interest in recent posts. Mathspig keeps in touch with Sarah Ebner (right )who edits the fabulous and informative   Schoolgate Blog, Timesonline (UK). Sarah highlighted my post 10 Biggest Maths Disasters in the World  last week and the response was overwhelming ( for a pig!)

 It is a part of Mathspig’s Mission to get teachers, students, anyone talking about maths. That happened. 

 Meanwhile, one of Mathspig’s favourite maths bloggers is Jeff Trevaskis ( Right. Sorry, Jeff, it’s my favourite pic of you.). Jeff teachers high school maths in country Victoria, Australia, and finds time to run Webmaths, which tackles both fun issues and serious maths. One of his recent entries was titled SMELLY JOCKS?

A recent survey published in the Courier Mail suggested that more than half Aussie men wore the same undies for up to 3 days in a row. Eghhhhhh! I suggested to Jeff that an anonymous survey of, um, male students would probably produce a Normal Distribution or Bell Curve. But we’ll have to dub this one the SMELL CURVE.

COMING SOON: TWILIGHT MATHS

The New Plus/Minus

Hockey is the ultimate team sport. The only thing that matters at the end of sixty minutes is adding two points in the standings. But you know as well as I do that as a player you analyze every shift after every game in your mind to gauge how well you played. Goals and assists are a good measure of a players offensive contributions to the team. Hits and face-off wins can be a good measure of a player/teams energy. And taking too many penalties may be a sign of undisciplined play.

However coaches, parents, and players reference the plus/minus stat for accountability on the ice which I think is very misleading. Yeah Bobby Orr’s +124 signifies that he had a godlike season. But how many times have you stepped on the ice right when a goal is scored. Might as well jump back over the boards before the statistician can get your number.

Baseball has adopted the complicated sabermetrics system to get an objective measure of a players talent. Bare with me here. If a ballplayer hits the cover off the ball but a defensive player makes a great diving catch, then it’s essentially considered a hit. If a ball player strikes out a lot then it’s counted against him more then putting the ball in play. 

I had the great priveledge to play under Coach Jeff Jackson now at the University of Notre Dame. He adopted a similar system of plus/minus to provide accountability and measure progress for players. You can choose your own scoring system but here are some examples that I have used in the past:

Plus +	Minus -
–Player scores a goal –Player sets up a goal –Player has a great shot from the slot area/ good scoring chance –Player takes the puck wide and drives to the net for a scoring opportunity –Player provides pressure on the forecheck that leads to a turnover and a scoring chance –Player takes a big hit 5 feet inside his/her own blueline to get the puck out which creates a scoring chance –Defenseman provides a great outlet pass that leads to a scoring chance –Defenseman on the point gets the puck through a bunch of bodies for a screen/rebound chance –Player provides a big hit that changes the momentum of the game –Player wins a draw that leads to a goal or great scoring opporutnity.	–Player fails to tie up his man’s stick and they get a good shot off –Player doesn’t tie up his man on the face-off and they score or get a good chance. –Player is on the wrong side of his man down low and they walk out of the corner for a good chance/goal –Player pulls a flamingo on a point shot –Player is lazy backchecking which results in a goal/scoring chance –Player takes too long of a shift that results in a goal or scoring chance –Player makes a bad change that results in a goal/scoring chance –Player takes a bad penalty
****The main thing is that it directly leads to a goal, great scoring chance, or game changing play. The top player on your team will usually have about 5 pluses in a competitive game.****	**There are a number of lapses that can be considered a minus in this scoring system but the main thing is consistency of the scoring.***

Coaches

As a coach you may want your assistant coach to keep track of this in a notebook on the bench. If you’re lucky enough to have quality game film then you can break it down for the players so they can actually see the plus or minus.

Parents

As a parent it may be hard to provide objective judgement. Your son/daughter will undoubtedly feel you’re being too tough on them. I would suggest using the pluses as a positive reinforcement when your son/daughter explains every detail that went wrong after the game.

Players

As a player you can use this to chunk down your game. What I mean by this is that every player measures themselves by goals and assists. This can be a tough yardstick when things aren’t going your way. A slump is compounded when your name doesn’t appear on the score sheet game after game. But you could be playing well/working hard and just not getting the bounces. If you look at your game in this perspective you can pull positives out to build off of.

The great part about this system is that it provides something players can measure their on ice progress. Coach Jackson would have a score sheet the next day during video that would list each player by number and their true plus/minus. Good game or bad game you wanted to see your "grade." It was kind of like the beginning scene in Tommy Boy when Chris Farley is scanning for his name outside the classroom.

Good luck in the upcoming games and stay positive.

As signaled in a previous post, the next edition of our Adap’ski workshops will remain a satellite of the larger MCM’Ski conference and, since the later moves to Utah for its third occurence, so do we. The skeleton of the Adapskiii webpage is now on line with hopefully a list of speakers coming up soon! The points worth mentioning at this stage are that (a) the conference starts on the evening of the 2nd of January, which admitedly is not an optimal date to travel for those celebrating New Year (and which also happens to be a Sunday in 2011), and (b) there will be a registration fee for this edition, most likely aggregated to the MCM’Ski 3 registration fee. (The earlier occurences of Adap’ski were sponsored by Paris Dauphine (for the coffee breaks) and Hotel Rezia (for the room rental), thanks to the help of Antonietta Mira. This won’t be the case in Utah!)

 “Statistics are like bikinis.  What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.”  ~Aaron Levenstein”

I had a post in mind today, one about metrics and statistics, some of which you may have heard if you were at my presentation . Before starting I Googled “quotes about statistic”, as I thought I wanted to use a starting quote that was better than the obligatory  “98% of all statistics are made up”. I have discovered that quotes about statistics are bit like statistics themselves, many, and varied, they can be also both humorous and pointless. So I shall drop several more through the post as I had trouble deciding which I liked most.

“Torture numbers, and they’ll confess to anything.”  ~Gregg Easterbrook

So why statistics? Well there are many different areas with which statistics are important in libraries, but for me the main statistical set that has me beating my head against a brick wall is blog statistics. It is true that with any activity within the workplace, their needs to be a justification for that activity. Often the easiest was to prove/ or disprove that justification is with statistics.  For the blog, Tararua District Library Blog, statistics are any essential part of any justification.

“He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts – for support rather than for illumination.”  ~Andrew Lang

The trouble with the statistics are they are often inconsistent across harvesters and often they don’t tell me the story I want to know. I can start with the statistics generated by wordpress. They record how many times a particular page has been viewed in a browser. They don’t tell me a location of the reader, nor if the reader is a unique visitor who viewed multiple pages. So for example last month [October] I am told the blog had 1,420 page views, at an average 46 page views per day. This is well and good, but not terribly satisfying for those with an interest in metrics.

“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable.”  ~Author Unknown

I needed to see some more statistics, so I created a free account with sitemeter, which tells me both unique visitors and page views. Except this service tells me for the month of October we had 1,129 visits, viewing 1,592 pages. Yes that’s 172 page views more than the blog tells me. That’s more than a discrepancy in date/time [I.E. one site recording at GMT, while the other NZ local time]. One thing I would be like to be able to report is the numbers of locals reading. Sitemeter will tell me an approximate locale of the viewer, but that is based of the ip address, and they are usually registered in bulk to one of the main centres.

“There are two kinds of statistics, the kind you look up and the kind you make up.”  ~Rex Stout, Death of a Doxy

To add to my confusion I have recently started channelling my links through bit.ly. Now this has told me some interesting statistics which is meant to report how many times the link has been clicked. The obvious conclusion would be that for every click you would receive a corresponding page view. I have discovered this is in fact not true. I can create a link to my latest posting, send it to twitter via bit.ly. I have observed that in bit.ly I can have 12 or 13 clicks yet not one page view.

“Satan delights equally in statistics and in quoting scripture….”  ~H.G. Wells, The Undying Fire

To add another element in the quest for an accurate picture of readership, there are also blog harvesters like alphainventions.com or http://stumbleupon.com, which will allow people to read your blog without actually viewing it.  Not to mention the question of whether you can get an accurate readout of how many people have subscribed via a RSS feed.

It means that any validation of the blog as a worthwhile activity, justified as active part of the library workload is problematic. I feel sometimes as though I am out there, dancing in that bikini on the street front, not knowing how many are checking me out, and living in fear that the powers that be might just notice and decide I need to be engaged in a more appropriate activity.

Truly, they are.

As you all know (if you bothered to even read the titile of my blog), I’m a newbie in blogging. And I must say, I have never yet seen any of my statistics as low as this. I was shocked (or was it horrified?) when I saw the statstics of the people viewing my blog.

Don’t get me wrong – when I first came here to wordpress I told myself  that no matter how popular or unpopular my blog is, I will continue to blog, and I shall stick by that promise (I cable-squared with the PC) until I lose the will to write.

But it doesn’t really help motivate me blog when I see that hardly anyone appriciates what I write (or if anyone knows that I even exist).

I think I’d be better off if I just remove the statistics option … now how to do that is the question …

The statistics show childhood obesity is growing at an alarming rate. Nearly 1 out of 5 kids is considered obese today, compared with 1 out of 20 in the late 1970’s. The fastest growing trend is in ages 12 – 19, but age group 6 – 11 is nearly the same.

Prevalence of Obesity Among U.S. Children and Adolescents

Yet we, as a country, are doing little to stop this. Even the CDC reports the following quote on its website:

Healthy People 2010 identified overweight and obesity as 1 of 10 leading health indicators and called for a reduction in the proportion of children and adolescents who are overweight or obese, but the United States has made little progress toward the target goal.

See the full report at the CDC website here. Check out these CDC links for additional information:

• Healthy Weight – it’s not a diet, it’s a lifestyle!
• Tips for Parents – Ideas to Help Children Maintain a Healthy Weight

And, here are some great resources for kids:

• BAM! Body and Mind
• My Pyramid Blast Off Game
• Powerful Girls Powerful Bones

VILD MED DANS OG FODBOLD MEDENS EUROPA GÅR UNDER PÅNY

Internationalismen er en ideologi helt på linie med alle andre tidligere ideologier, der alle er brudt sammen eller blevet uskadeligjort enten på grund af mange konkurrerende ideologier, eller hvor ideologien var enerådende senest når toppen brændte ud (DDR), og her forudsat at folk tog sig sammen og sagde højlydt fra i tide. Liberalisme, International Socialisme, Nationalsocialismen, Islamisme, Kommunisme og flere andre har al det vigtigste tilfælles: Verdensopskriften, magtsamlingen og passiviseringen eller fjernelse af alle anderledes tænkende. I dag er internationalismen enerådende. I perioder hvor flere ideologier har stor og vidt favnende udbredelse blandt de verdsligt troende går det i grunden meget godt. Så holder trossystemerne hinanden i skak. Derimod når én eller blot to ideologier er rådende går det mod enden.

Når de gamle kendinge liberalisme og socialisme kan forenes i EU med oliehandelen som løftestang i stedet for at de ansvarlige klarer de sure forpligtelser til at få Europa tilpasset den internationale konkurrence, så er Islamismen i Europa simpelthen nøglen til magtsamlingen her over noget, der er blevet kaldt Ny-merkantilisme.

Den oprindelige Merkantilisme er ridset op i hovedtræk : Her

Islamismen er prisen for oliehandelens økonomiske løftestang over Euro for den almægtige EU-top. Den uddeler derefter med planøkonomisk, mild hånd til målgrupperne, der netop sikrer og konsoliderer samme top, hvor den naturgivne konkurrences uskyldige, upersonlige og usynlige hånd i stedet skulle have rådet, hvis borgerne havde betydet noget centralt.

Kapitalisme i ordets gængse betydning er absolut ingen ideologi, men et ord – ikke et begreb, snarere en betegnelse, der er opfundet af Karl Marx eller hans storinspirator Albert Pike til karakteristik af de samfund, som forfatterne selv levede i. Ikke et ord om, at netop det deraf afledte ikke-kapitalistiske system beslaglægger eller forbruger og bortøder langt mere kapital pr. produceret og pr. afsat enhed. Man annammede blindt sprogbrugen fra top til bund, her smædeordet, og så var toget kørt: Frit efter Confutze 200 f.v.t: Antager du fjendens sprogbrug har du allerede tabt.

I takt det nye Europas opbygning (Neuropa II) nedfælles og besluttes vore fremtidige rettigheder som borgere i ny lovgivning til erstatning for den lovgivning vi forud har i vore nationale lovgivningerne, hvor bestemmelserne samtidig tages ud pr. automatik efter principperne samlet i: Acquis Communitaire-doktrinen (jf. Bernard Connolly)1). Nu også med en sminket grundlov kaldet Lissabon Traktaten.

Alt peger på folk ikke tager sig sammen denne gang. Uden en folkelig front mod det værste, der starter med løgnene, kommer vi ingen vegne. Landet vil så gå tabt, inden dine små børn bliver voksne, hvis det fortsætter cirka som nu. Dette er ikke noget man kan stole på eller lade være at stole på; det er såmænd ren matematik. Danskerne og andre europæiske nationers folk skal turde at ofre lidt af deres sikkerhed, ellers kommer der ingen mærkbare ændringer i den lagte dødssejler-kurs, vurderer vi herfra.

Hvordan kunne det gå til?

De som skulle er fortabte i smertefri fordummelse og angst: http://danmark.wordpress.com/dansk-velfærds-historie/ :

“…Skolesystemet har sørget for, at de er åndeligt rodløse. Afskåret fra den rigdom og erfaring, der f.eks. ligger i historien. Og uden et reelt verdensbillede. Alt står hen i flimmer. Gennem hele deres skolegang er de blevet grundigt snydt og bedraget. Men det opdager de ikke. De er logisk udelukkede fra at vide, hvad det er, de ikke ved. At gøre dem opmærksom på deres totale uvidenhed er næsten lige så meningsløst som at forklare en farveblind om farverne, han kan jo alligevel ikke se dem.

Men den uvidenhed, vore unge (to generationer) er blevet påført, er væsentlig mere ondartet end manglende evne til at skelne farverne. I Georg Orwells roman ”1984” lyder et af slagordene i den gode stat: ”Uvidenhed er styrke”. At uvidenhed er styrke, det er en sandhed, som totalitære regimer altid har baseret deres magt på. De kliker, som i vort land har sat fordummelsen i værk, ved naturligvis også, hvad den skal bruges til.

De ved, at hvis man vil ødelægge et folk, skal man begynde med at tage historien fra dem. Historien er grundlaget for folkets nationale identitet. Ja, der er endog dem, der hævder, at et folk uden historie slet ikke er noget folk. Generationer, der systematisk er gjort historieløse, kan derfor let ende med at blive fædrelandsløse. Men det indgår også i beregningerne. Processen tilstræber at forme det nye menneske, uden national bevidsthed, uden religion, uden historiske rødder, uden traditioner. Det udhulede menneske, for hvem alt er ligegyldigt. Fædrelandet skal skrottes og erstattes med den gode sociale stat. Folket skal kues til blot at være en ”befolkning”. Et tilfældigt sammenskrab. En grå lunken grød.

At være et folk betyder at have ansvar. Pligten til at overtage, bevare og videregive den fælles arv. Pligten til om nødvendigt at forsvare nationen med ild og jern og livet som indsats. Uden et folk ingen nation. Uden nation intet folk.

En ”befolkning” er nøjagtig det modsatte. ”Befolkningen” har kun bistandsloven og den sociale tryghed at være fælles om. Ligesom alummerne er fælles om asylet.

I den gode stat er der ingen mening eller mål med noget. Intet der er værd at risikere livet for. Og livet er heller ikke værdigt at risikere. Her gælder det blot om at hytte sit skind og rage til sig. Hvad kan jeg få gratis? Hvad er jeg i min ret til at få? Saml fødderne og stik hånden fladt frem og se lidt forurettet ud: Man gør klogest i at kende paragrafferne. Ellers deltager man nemlig ikke i lodtrækningen. Og så skal man i øvrigt beskytte sit dyrebare privatliv. ”Hvad er der i fjernsynet i aften?”. Bhaa, det sædvanlige. ”Skal vi ikke snart spise? Jeg keder mig”. ”Hvem har hugget mit nye pornoblad? Det finder jeg mig ikke i. nu er det nok”. ”Æv, hvor er det surt alt sammen. Jeg føler mig så tom og klam. Jeg gider ikke. Gid jeg kunne vinde i lotto”. ”Men vi har det jo trygt og godt i lille Danmark”.

En sådan befolkning, der er spændt solidt fast i velfærdsstatens åndelige jernlunge, er nem at styre og modtagelig for den sødladne totalitære ideologi, der lokker med stadig mere tryghed og nemme løsninger på alle tilværelsens genvordigheder. Det er, hvad man forstår ved slagordet: ”Uvidenhed er styrke”…”

http://danmark.wordpress.com/2008/04/13/adfærdsvanskelige-og-psykisk-syge-sluger-skolebudgetterne/ :

“…I lang tid undrede det os, at vi ofte mødte undervisningspligtige børn rundt om på gader og for eksempel på skovstierne om formiddagen. Det undrer os ikke længere. Vi er så heldige, at vi har et par skolelærere på nært hold, der nu har valgt at tage bladet fra munden og fortælle os sandheden om, hvad der sker, selvom det længe krævede overvindelse; og det er da til at forstå.

Børnene gider ikke have undervisning, og når de ikke gider, går læreren med dem i skoven, eller de tager en tur i byen. Der er ingen pligter længere; de tilsidesættes i hvert fald. Går vi til det næste trin, som følges af næsten halvdelen af alle undervisningspligtige, som vi vel ynder at fastholde det, så er valgfriheden med hensyn for eksempel fag i gymnasiet nu sådan, at der kan tildeles 200 forskellige studentereksaminer. Valgfriheden førte til værdiløshed.

Jeg skylder at oplyse at børnene og de unge er aldeles uden skyld i det, der sker.

Vold og mobning af en hidtil uset grovhed florerer frit i de danske skoler. Voldtægt, grov vold, pengeafpresning og psykisk tortur er i dag ikke ualmindelige foreteelser i en dansk skole. Børn og unge føler sig mange gange magtesløse over for de kriminelle overgreb. Foretages de uhyggelige overgreb eksempelvis af elever, for hvem sådanne forbrydelser er en naturlig del af den kulturelle baggrund, anklager lærerne med glæde voldsofret for selv at være problemet – fordi den pågældende elev ved sit nødråb forsøger at modarbejde voldsforbryderens (voldsforbrydernes) naturlige udfoldelsesmuligheder.

Princippet startede i nyere europæisk tid på dansk jord under den famøse Ritt Bjerregaard, der ikke selv kunne optages på Christianshavns Gymnasium, fordi hun havde et for lavt gennemsnit til Mellemskoleeksamen. I faget historie kunne hun til Mellemskoleeksamen ikke svare på, hvad skæbnesvangert, der ramte Danmark i 1864. Resultat: “Kunne vi ikke blive lige kloge, så kunne vi i hvert fald blive lige dumme, for lige skulle vi være”. Det var hvad hendes og Haarders enhedsskole gik ud på. Intet andet i internationalens og liberalens skønne forening. Ja, det hele fortsatte såmænd i samme gænge under Bertel Haarder fra 1982 i det nære samfunds navn. Og nu igen fra 2005 med nye tvetungede proklamationer fra samme, medens hele gundlaget ramler efter planen…”

Vi opfatter forholdene, der tilspidses dag for dag, som en trussel mod det danske folk og vore børn. Uden en massiv hjemsendelse, der i grunden kan koste, hvad den vil, vil landet forgå. Ved blot at betragte alternativet, som kører allerede, kan vi regne med mere end 150 mia. kr. årligt indtil nu, milliarder der tilmed belaster produktionen og hæmmer beskæftigelsen endnu mere og simpelthen inddæmmer den samlede afsætnings- forbrugs- og forsorgsmulighed i fremtiden. Men alligevel: DEN ØKONOMISKE OMKOSTNING ER MULIGVIS DEN MINDSTE

1) “Allerede fra de første forberedelser til Romtraktaten argumenterede Jean Monnet ihærdigt for at nationalstaterne skulle overlade magt til en gradvis opbygning af en enhed og en samling af den effektive bureaukratiske elite i Europas lande, så at man skabte et kraftfelt, hvor en union ikke længere kunne stoppes. Overgivningen af magt skulle begynde med relativt ukontroversielle økonomiske funktioner og stålproduktionen for på den måde at mindske uroen for at den nationale suverænitet blev nedbrudt. Man skulle se til at magten ikke skulle kunne føres tilbage igen. Dette garanteredes gennem traktatdoktrinen “acquis communitaire”, som sikrede, at al magt, som overførtes til EU´s samfundsinstitutioner, gjordes til permanent EU-lov, mens man samtidigt strøg den i medlemslandenes nationale lovsamlinger.”

Series: Statistical Analysis Consulting Company Digs New Papers & Trends in Statistics

Today’s paper:

Prediction in linear mixed models

Authors: Sue Welham, Brian Cullis, Beverley Gogel, Arthur Gilmour, Robin Thompson

Abstract. Following estimation of effects from a linear mixed model, it is often useful to form predicted values for certain factor/variate combinations. The process has been well defined for linear models, but the introduction of random effects into the model means that a decision has to be made about the inclusion or exclusion of random model terms from the predictions. This paper discusses the interpretation of predictions formed including or excluding random terms. Four datasets are used to illustrate circumstances where different prediction strategies may be appropriate: in an orthogonal design, an unbalanced nested structure, a model with cubic smoothing spline terms and for kriging after spatial analysis. The examples also show the need for different weighting schemes that recognize nesting and aliasing during prediction, and the necessity of being able to detect inestimable predictions.

Find the paper here

Statistical Analysis Consulting Company Goes Beyond Numbers