Not that the Greens will be thinking so this morning as Tim reveals the list of those Green councillors who signed the letter resulting in Christina Summers being expelled from the Green Group on Brighton and Hove City Council.

According to Tim, those who signed the letter were: Liz Wakefield, Rob Jarrett, Leo Littman, Phelim MacCafferty, Lizzie Deane, Sue Shanks, Christopher Hawtree, Ben Duncan, Sven Rufus, Mike Jones, Stephanie Powell, Amy Kennedy, and Ruth Buckley.

Those who did not sign were: Matt Follett, Bill Randall, Geoffrey Bowden, Ian Davey, Ollie Sykes, Alex Phillips, Pete West, Jason Kitcat, and Ania Kitcat.

I am personally disappointed with some who signed and pleasantly surprised by one or two who did not.

When histories are written of political administrations, the moment that an under-fire group turns on its own members is the moment that defeat becomes likely. The Greens still have time to reflect on what got them elected in 2011 and return to the campaigning political operation that so inspired many voters.

(Note: the original posting had Tim Ridgway as a “loyal government correspondent” now corrected to “local government correspondent” and the names of Geoffrey Bowden and Bill Randall had become fused as Geoffrey Randall. What a thought!)

For the Tories the stand out impression (other than the tie of the wonderful councillor Janio and his reference to the “great man” Ronald Reagan), was the emergence of their Leader-in-Waiting Graham Cox. His speech put clear blue water between the Tory Group and the rest. He is the Newt Gingrich of Brighton politics, the one who could capture the public imagination. Labour and the Greens be warned, he could see a Tory revival in 2015.

Labour were in a no win situation. The one Labour councillor who understood the politics of the occasion was Brian Fitch. It was he who articulated that Labour would OT be supporting the Tories. In the event, the Tories supported Labour. Labour will make much of this, countering the Green claim that Labour and the Tories had voted together. They will both be right. But there will be a nagging feeling amongst Labour supporters that the Tory and Labour budgets were not that dissimilar, and that Labour hardly ushered a word against the Tory government, focusing all their fire on the Greens.

For the Greens, Jason Kitcat was impressive, in command of his brief, and replied well. If this, his first major outing, is anything to go by, he will do fine as the Green leader. I was uncertain about the Greens voting for the budget. An honourable (?) abstention was what I would have expected from most, with more than Alex Phillips voting against. I imagine that, as Geoffrey Bowden said, most voted with a heavy heart. I thought the speeches by councillors Phillips and Sven Rufus were ones that should be noted regarding conduct.

But that’s not to say there shouldn’t be some humour, even some slapstick to lighten the mood. Councillor Janio’s ‘dual’ with councillor Hawtree is fast becoming the matter of legends, and councillor Hawtree’s repost was pure class. Perhaps a way of raising funds for this cash-strapped Council would be for the two of them to go on stage together, with half the proceeds going to libraries, the remainder to the third sector, after all, councillor Janio would not trust even a £3 note to local government.

It feels good to be back.

With Fassam and Bitcat, no quarter is offered, no quarter given. What would make this exchange better would be if Lord Bassam didn’t blame the Greens for the financial challenges in Brighton and Hove, rather he should blame the Tory-led Coalition for their obsession with cutting local government.

The contrast could not be greater in the Twitter exchanges between Ms Penn and councillor Phillips. These exchanges are robust and challenging, but they are done with respect and some affection. There are definite differences in their politics (Ms Penn is Labour, but with a tinge of Old Labour; Lady Everton is Green, but also with a tinge of Old Labour). Both fight firmly for their respective parties, yet both are respectful of the other, able to accept criticism and acknowledge positives in the views of others.

I think these two women personify what I like most about local politics. They represent what is positive about certain Green and Labour activists. I look to the day when they work together, in a Green-Socialist party. I don’t believe that they have yet met each other, but I suggest they meet for a skinny latte over the holiday period.

Where my gender theory is chalenged is the persons of Sven Rufus (Green), Pete Gillman (Labour) and Momma Grizzly herself (True Blue with as dash of Orange). Sven and Caroline Penn have agreed a Christmas truce (football and mince pies in No Man’s Land perhaps). Recent exchanges between the two of them have been warm and shows the way forward between Labour and the Greens. Pete Gillman, too, is a nice guy, but borders on being more focused on the Greens than the Tories. Should he see that Labour and the Greens have more to unite than divide them, he will be able to help bridge the divide between the two parties.

And then there is Rachael Bates. Momma Grizzly shows none of the sisterhood that exists between Lady Everton and Caroline Penn. And nor would she want to be part of such a sisterhood. While the Grizzly One will long remain in my affections, this season of peace and goodwill between humankind is not for her. But in spite of that, I wish her a happy Christmas.

In Brighon Pavilion, the Greens are now challenging in the Tory heartlands. The Normans, Anne and Ken, will not stand again in Withdene and the Greens, having won one seat and having come close in a second, will have high hopes of winning all 3 seats in May 2015. In Hollingdean and Stanmer, Jeane Lepper, now the sole Labour councillor in Brighton Pavilion, will not stand again, leaving the way open for Luke Walter to join Sven Rufus and Christina Summers on the Council.

And there is the final frontier, Pacham. The Theobald Machine held firm once more, but with a local council election being held on the same day as a probable general election, everything is up for grabs. And will any of the current three councillors stand again? Brian Pidgeon will retire, and Carol and Geoffrey Theobald must be considering when it will be the right time to call time.

Three years and 363 days out I am making this prediction – the Greens will win EVERY seat in Brighton Pavilion in 2015.

I will comment on Brighton Kemptown at a later date, but I think that, for the Greens, Hove and Portslade is where their future lies. After Thursday, the Greens have 6 seats, Labour have 6, and the Tories 8 seats. The Greens have consolidated its first and only seat in Goldsmid where Alex Phillips led a strong campaign to win a seat off the Tories and to defeat Melanie Davis who was a strong candidate and respected councillor.

But it is Christopher Hawtree’s breakthrough in Central Hove that changes everything. That single gain shows what is possible, and the Greens must already have begun to eye Westbourne, Wish, and the other seat in Central Hove. The Portslades, North and South, have similar demographics to Hollingdean and Stanmer, and both will become vulnerable should (as is likely) both Bob Carden and Les Hamilton stand down in 2015.

And then there is Hangleton and Knoll, a large ward which, again, like Hollingdean and Stanmer, is an area where the Greens could thrive. Dawn Barnett and Brian Fitch are no longer spring chickens, and won’t go on and on and on. Does Brian have another campaign in him (probably) but will he want to be a councillor, should he be re-elected in 2015, will be approaching 80 at the end of that term in office.

So why all this speculation about 2015? If the Greens begin building in Hove, establishing a local organisation in each of these wards (don’t fall for Labour’s mistake and run everything from a High Command), and get a dynamic parliamentary candidate in place sooner rather than later, who can support, motivate, encourage, nurture the party in Hove, then there will be a further Caroline Effect, although it could come to be known as the Alex Effect …..

But there are a number of people, 39 to be precise, who have reasons to be cheerful – those who I am confident will be elected (whatever the weather and their positions on the ballot papers). Some campaigns are too close to call, and in some wards I am only predicting one or two winners. The figures in brackets are the number of seatsup for election.

Brunswick & Adelaide (2) – too close to call

Central Hove (2) – too close to call

East Brighton (3) – a Labour 1, 2, 3: Gill Mitchell, Warren Morgan, Craig Turton

Goldsmid (3) – Melanie Davis, Alex Phillips (Labour, Green)

Hangleton & Knoll (3) – Dawn Barnett, Brian Fitch (Tory, Labour)

Hanover & Elm Grove (3) – a Green 1, 2, 3: Matt Follett, Bill Randall, Liz Wakefield

Hollingdean & Stanmer (3) – Jeane Lepper, Sven Rufus, Christina Summers (Labour, Green, Green)

Hove Park (2) – a Tory 1, 2: Jayne Bennett, Vanessa Brown

Moulsecoomb & Bevendean (3) – Maria Caulfield, Ayas Fallon-Khan (Tory, Tory)

North Portslade (2) – Bob Carden (Labour)

Patcham (3) – a Tory 1, 2, 3: Brian Pidgeon, Carol Theobald, Geoffrey Theobald

Preston Park (3) – Amy Kennedy (Green)

Queen’s Park (3) – Ben Duncan (Green)

Regency (2) – a Green 1, 2: Ania Kitcat, Jason Kitcat

Rottingdean Coastal (3) – a Tory 1, 2, 3: Lynda Hyde, Mary Mears, David Smith

South Portslade (2) – Les Hamilton (Labour)

St Peter’s & North Laine (3) – a Green 1, 2, 3: Ian Davey, Lizzie Deane, Pete West

Westbourne (2) – a Tory 1, 2: Denise Cobb, Brian Oxley

Wish (2) – too close to call

Withdean (3) – a Tory 1, 2, 3: Robert Nemeth, Ann Norman, Ken Norman,

Woodingdean (2) – a Tory 1, 2: Dee Simpson, Geoff Wells

In summary, the above predictions will see elected 8 Labour councillors, 13 Green, and 18 Tories. That leaves 15 seats that are too close to call. Privately, just between me and you, my four regular readers, I predict 8 of these will go Green, 3 to the Tories, and 4 Labour. A hung council made up of 21 Greens, 21 Tories, and 12 Labour councillors. A nightmare scenario for many ….!

Councillor Averil Older stands down from her Central Hove seat. Unlike some councillors, she has remained a very normal human being, someone who is easy to talk to and to get along with. I wish both Pat and Averil happy retirements.

The Green councillors who are standing down are not retiring. Several are young and, understandably, are having to concentrate on their careers. All are very talented and the City will be all the poorer for the decision of Rachel Fryer, Paul Steedman, Vicky Wakefield-Jarret and Georgia Wrighton to stand down. I hope, like Councillor Pete West, that they will consider standing again at some point in the future.

There are other councillors who are standing but may not survive the decision of the electorate. I predict that up to six Labour councillors are at risk of losing their seats. Up to four Tories may lose their seats along with one Lib Dem and one Independent.

Hoping to win seats on the City Council are several young and very young candidates. For the Tories, Momma Grizzly (Rachael Bates, aged 22) is standing in Hollingdean and Stanmer, and the Estate Agent (Rob Buckwell, also 22) is standing in Goldsmid. For Labour, Harris Fitch (20) is standing in Rottingdean Coastal, and Clare Calder (18) is standing in St Peters and North Laine. The disappointing reality for these Young Turks, is that none have a realistic chance of being elected.

Of these four, the Estate Agent has the best chance of winning a seat although I suspect that in Goldsmid Labour’s Melanie Davis, Green Alex Phillips and another Green will be elected. Alex is currently the Baby of the Chamber having been elected less than two years ago at the age of 24. Alex has what it takes to make it big in politics, probably in Europe and in due course joining Caroline Lucas in Westminster.

Second time candidate at 25, Tom French (who fought a very strong campaign in the St Peters and North Laine by-election last year) has an outside chance of winning Queens Park for Labour, but needs to see off a strong Green presence in that ward.

The young candidate most likely to be elected is Luke Walter (22) who is standing in Hollingdean and Stanmer, although having a surname starting with ‘W’ he may be the Green to lose out should H&S return Jeane Lepper and two Greens (Sven Rufus and Christina Summers).

But the emergence of young candidates is encouraging although it is very regretable when young councillors find it necessary to stand down in order to pursue their careers.

The final word goes to Hanover and Elm Grove councillor, Vicky Wakefield-Jarrett, who has captured a tone that I would like to see between Labour and Green activists. In a tweet earlier today she wrote: “@ClareCalder I’m supporting Greens, but wanted to say i think it’s great you’re standing – I hope it’s a positive experience for you.”. I echo the sentiment, I hope that it is a positive experience for Luke, Rachael, Rob, Harris, and Clare.

Tonight I will explore the concept of a personal vote.  Where you have a councillor who is diligent in their case work, and who has been around for many years, as in the case of Jeane Lepper, constituents will vote for the person rather than the party.  Jeane will have helped many hundreds of residents of Hollingdean and Stanmer with what some activists might dismiss as pavement politics. Where there has been a noisy neighbour, Jeane will have intervened.  When someone’s son or daughter, or grandson or granddaughter, has not got into the school of their choice, Jeane will have written a letter, even represented them at an appeal. She will have lobbied on planning applications, helped with housing applications, even raised issues about dog shit and bent lamp posts.  For individual residents, these issues matter, and as an effective councillor (as opposed to high profile) she will have made a difference to the lives on several hundred individual households. 

It is that history and record, to answer the Wise Owl’s question, is what I base my forecast on. The Lepper name, too, will help enormously, since David Lepper was an exceptionally diligent constituency MP.  He may not have set Westminster alight, unlike his successor, Caroline Lucas, but he was (is) well known and highly respected by ordinary constituents.

So what about Queens Park? Why did the personal vote not save Ken Bodfish and Simon Burgess.  The answer is simple.  They represented an administration that had become arrogant and detached from the lives of ordinary people.  They were seen to have been associated with, even responsible for, many ill-fated initiatives from the mayoral campaign, schools admissions, and the Council house debacle. Their prominence as the successive leaders of the Council over-shadowed anything they may have done as ward councillors.  Other leading politicians have not neglected their own constituents (I don’t think Simon did).  Other good examples are Mary Mears, Maria Caulfield and Bill Randall who work conscientiously on case work and who come across with humility and not the arrogance that characterised (perhaps unfairly some might say) the Queens Park Mafia.

Steve Bassam was another who knew where his base lay.  An exceptional case worker, he may have become a very divisive figure in the town and within Labour, but he never came anywhere near losing his power base in Tenantry Ward even though it was, I understand, the heartland of Militant.  If  Hangleton and Knoll returns to Labour, it won’t be a clean sweep.  Dawn Barnett, who knows every household down to the name of their late and much missed pet dog, will stick in there like chewing gum on your shoe.  Labour will just not be able to get rid of her, and the Greens will not be able to get rid of Jeane Lepper.

Who else, current or former councillors, would you say is/was a great ward councillor whose personal votes would see them through, thick or thin?

DAP thinks that students will make the LibDem destruction even more felt everywhere, coming in poor lasts.  He thinks that the “Tories will also be hit (in M&B for example) not because Tory students will change their mind and vote left, but beacuse previously non voting students/first timers will be more inclined to vote Green/Labour because of recent tuition fee rises/high youth umemployment/low graduate employment (as will the parents of future students)”.  Perhaps, but I think that Moulsecoomb and Bevendean will be won, not by issues impacting on students, but on the record of Maria Caulfield as lead councillor for housing. 

My dear Baron Pepperpot agrees with my take on Hollingbury and Stanmer: “The Greens in Hollingdean & Stanmer are heavily targeting the student vote. I understand they are readily campaigning at the campus, and will be there on the day. The Greens campaign in this ward has been in full flow for sometime, and is showing signs of a very carefully thought out strategy. An added advantage too is student hostility towards the coalition and the Lib Dems in particular.If someone wanted to bet me that 3 Greens will be returned from Hollingdean & Stanmer, they wouldn’t see much of a return on their stake!”

As you know, Baron, I think the Joker in the Pack is Jeane Lepper who I believe will hang on because of her many years careful stewardship of the ward. I still say two Greens and Jeane Lepper for Labour.

Brighton’s own Mr Pickwick, Christopher Hawtree, thinks that the student vote will be influential everywher: “It is not only the student vote that makes Moulescoomb an interesting area for the Greens. Look at the rest of it.” I don’t think so, it requires strong organisation on the ground, and Labour doesn’t have it, and the Greens are targeting their efforts in selected wards.

The activist with probably the best knowledge of the student vote, and someone who has received little public credit for the success of Caroline Lucas’ campaign is Allie Cannell.  He writes: “I think the best reference I have ever got was from Charlotte Vere after the general election when she said in an e-mail to the University of Sussex Conservative Assosiation something along the lines of: ‘We could have won it if the Labour vote had softened but in the end the Greens’ student mobilisation campaign was just too successful’.  I learnt a lot coordinating the campus campaign at the general election last year and it was really really successful (if only i could tell you what the sampling data said), this year we started campaigning earlier on campus and we know how to do it. I’m confident we will get a good Green vote from the students again.”  I am sure you are right.

Regarding the student vote at Brighton University, and those in Kemptown, Allie writes: “We have made some connections with Brighton students, but as you say there hasn’t been a strong campaign there as we have to target. It will be interesting to see how those students vote this time though.  There are a lot of students that live in SPNL, and H&EG too, what a supprise that they’re Green wards.”

The Ghost of Nobby Clarke tends to discount the influence of the student vote: “The Students have always been a questionable influence in the old Stanmer ward and the now H&S ward, will they place Sven “Long Hair Kung-Fu Man” Rufus back on the council,do they know how too tactical vote? or do they let Rachel “momma grizzly” Bates through the middle, she is after all an ex Sussex Uni student and that may count for something with her old campus pals, we could see Ian Fyvie out with his loud hailer!”  Now having Ian Fyvie on the Council would be something, but somehow I think he will just miss out, by a thousand votes or so!

HP thinks it is studentification’ that could be a factor.  Not on students, I think, but on those living in town centre wards who complain about car parking and noisy neighbours, blaiming it all on students. HP writes: “Of course, another way the students might swing the vote is in relation to the party that promises the most effective action to limit the spread of student houses at the cost of family housing. The outgoing Labour Govt was in the process of addressing just that issue, but then the Tories came in and buckled to the demands of their landlord mates and watered down the new rules. However, a locally implementable mechanism exists to stop family houses becoming student lets and I for one would be happy to vote for a party that has the courage to impose it (unless that party is the Tories, obviously I’d never vote for them). We then need more purpose built student accommodation in the right places with sustainable links to the campuses.”

But is any of this speculation meaningful? Dan Wilson thinks not: “Student turnout at local elections is typically very low indeed”  but Mr Pickwick senses something different now: “It seems to me a motivated student vote this time. Many were inspired by first Green MP. That was also apparent in the Lizzie Deane camapign. And that was a summertime when most political types assumed that it would be a snoozy electorate.”

DAP has written: “The students are always a factor, the SUs usually campaign to get students to register/vote in elections… Look locally and nationally, the students have been very much more active these last 12 months than in recent history… London demos/riots… Brightons demos… Brighton and Sussex uni occupations.  Moulsecoomb and Benevendean Greens could indeed get an umpf from the students (Moulsecoomb & Falmer halls fall into M&B as well as the private accomodation), but Labour could also.  This will make it hard for Labour to return their 3rd councillor in the area… Tories and LDs will not get anywhere.  Hollingdean and Stanmer has alot of the Sussex students… they’re renouned for being very left and active. I believe they have a strong Green Party Society too… Greens indeed could benefit from this.”

This is the first local election that I can recall when the Greens have a relatively strong organisation at Sussex University.  That, coupled with the active campaigning by Rufus, Summers and Walter in Hollingdean and Stanmer, is one reason why I believe that the Greens will do well in H&S.  Their surge here will be off-set by the Lepper personal vote, hence my prediction of 2 Green councillors and one Labour councillor being returned in H&S.

The new student blocks in Falmer (on the University of Brighton side of the A27) will be a factor for the first time, although I don’t believe that Labour or the Greens have particularly focused on students here.  The Labour Party in Moulsecoomb and Bevendean is dead on its feet, the Greens remain too thin on the ground to be able to effectively target M&B, while the Tories are stropng and confident elsewhere in the ward. Both Maria Caulfield and Ayas Fallon-Khan are likely winners for the Tories.

Elsewhere, there are pockets of students, but not in sufficient concentration to be a factor in themselves. Or have I got this wrong …?

East Brighton Conservative candidate, Peter Booth, is equally bullish: “So Mr (or maybe Ms) BPB, our campaign in East Brighton is ‘ill-fated’. Ill-fated usually translates to doomed! However much you may think that – we do not. I would rather describe our campaign as daring, plucky, hopeful and above all positive! We will not indulge in negative personal campaigning against other candidates (the current spat between labour and greens in Queens Park is unedifying and does nothing to boost the image of politicians with the electorate).
Our campaign is based around ‘a lot of small changes make a big difference’ and above all that is what we seek to be – local councillors dealing with local issues and of course actively participating in debate about the future of our City!  Yes – it may be David against Goliath in EB. Yes we are the underdogs – and YES we are fighting to win!”  (If nothing else, Peter, you run me close for the use of exclamation marks!!!!)

The Ghost of Nobby Clarke also comments on the campaign in East Brighton: “So East Brighton has seen some tory activity then..Booth to pip Turton to the post maybe..Greens become the oppositon and Labour ask for a coalition…be warned Stan Fitch and Dennis Hobden are here and not happy!”  On Hollingdean and Stanmer, he predicts that the Tories might edge a seat: “the tories are fighting hard in this ward making an unusal 3 way fight and to quote Caroline “Servalan” Lucas “we always look to the left of the spectrum for votes” you’ll squeeze each other not the tories if they get out their vote they’ll nick a seat…probably Rachael Bates.”  (Momma Grizzly is going to love that!).

The ‘Ghost of Nobby Clarke’ has predicted that Sven Rufus will get the most votes for the Greens in Hollingdean and Stanmer.  Sven himself responded: “As flattering as it is that people think I will get a larger share of the vote than other Green candidates, for whatever reason, I don’t think that is necessarily the case. The time we have spent out on the doorstep is showing very positive feedback for us here, and it’s got to be said that the degree to which Luke Walter and Christina Summers have got stuck in here, meeting loads of people, representing residents, asking questions at council, leading delegations at council, starting and running campaigns about resident concerns, tackling casework – well, it has left me feeling wholly inadequate as a candidate to be honest. It’s all bets off what order the three of us poll in. Comparisons between our performance as candidates and those of the existing councillors is also interesting and encouraging for us. Not getting complacent, but the canvassing response combined with the fact that we saw such strong support for the Greens here during the general election campaign is giving us confidence for a good result. Of course, the electorate will decide, and we will be content with whatever the outcome, knowing that we have done a good job and been honest with people throughout the campaign.”

Warren Morgan has confirmed something that I have been hinting at – that Labour is in such disaray that it hasn’t yet selected all its candiudates: “Our full candidate list will be out in the next couple of weeks once the last two selections are complete, obviously quite a few have been known for some time and have been campaigning for many months.”  This admission is shocking.  I cannot imagine Labour entering any previous local election campaign without its candidates being selected months, if not a year, ahead.  It demonstrates that the decline of Labour in Brighton and Hove continues, and strtengthens my belief that Labour will reach its lowest point on the Council for several generations.

And finally …. ‘HP’ believes that Goldsmid is a barometer seat and that the Tories are pulling out all the stops to get its team of Estate Agents elected: “It seems to me that a lot is being spent on securing Goldsmid for the Tories, but Goldsmid alone wont keep them in power. On the face of it, the most politically astute part of the budget appears to be the cut in residents parking permit prices – this is the one I read about and thought it was a clever move. But stop a a minute and think about where those residents schemes are. Most are in Brighton wards the tories could never hope to win, a few are in Hove wards they couldn’t possibly contrive to lose. Only in Goldsmid might it really impact on the way people vote and the outcome in that ward. Likewise, the criminal madness that is the plan to dig up the Hove cycle lanes. Though in Central Hove, I imagine the Tories think they will capture some votes from nearby Goldsmid (though God knows why anyone would think voting to remove cycle lanes that were put in 2 years ago – under their administration! – will win any votes). It seems a lot of effort is going into Goldsmid, and while Goldsmid is a useful barometer, it ceases to be useful if the voting there is skewed. likewise, its seats are useful, but I suspect the tories will be losing more seats elsewhere than the 2 they might make up (at best) in Goldsmid.”

Dan Wilson is convinced that the electorate won’t be fooled by the 1% cut in Council Tax.  They are, he says, smarter than Mary Mears or I give them credit for.  However, he thinks that the cost of parking permits may be more successful: “I think if you want to compare the Mearcon to a masterplan, looking at her move on resident parking is more persuasive. That’s clever, attractive to many and also brassy in its cynicism. Straw poll today and last evening is that a 1% decrease is of little interest. Plenty of people, however, are concerned about libraries, BrightStart and all manner of things.”  Christopher Hawtree agrees with Dan: “I have never heard anybody voice a particular objection to the Council tax.”  I think you are both probably right, but the 1% cut will have the effect of galvanizing Tory activists who seem excited by this measure.  I guess they need to be excited about something as the Big Society doesn’t quite seem to have motivated the troops.

Steampunk accuses me of attempting to ”stir things ups amongst the opposition” which he says “are a distraction just now.”  Regarding the cuts he says “As you well know, the Conservative led council are implementing an ‘intelligent decomissioning’ process (conveniently timetabled to start after the election!) to decide which services to stop providing entirely and which ones to outsource to the lowest bidder. The budget proposal explains that these upcoming cuts won’t take full effect until the next financial year 2012/13 so the 250 jobs about to go are just the tip of the iceberg. The ‘intelligent’ part is the device by which every council service comes to be commissioned, either from the public sector, profit-motivated private sector or the voluntary sector (crippled by grant cuts despite warm words about the ‘big society’, and the empty invitation just a smoke screen for privatisation) – meaning that future job cuts will be dissembled.”  I agree with much of what Punky has said.  As for stirring things up in the opposition, that is not my intention, but I see little evidence of Labour being willing and able to work with the Greens.

Clive applauds Steampunks analysis, but has no kind work for your humble Blogger: “Remarkable that the BPB regards all this with chuckling indulgence, while still finding space to heap more abuse on Paul Elgood. If he isn’t Roy Pennington he might be Reg Prentice.”  Well, Clive, sometimes you have to laugh or else you’d cry.  I don’t mean to belittle what is happening to local government, the voluntary sector, the NHS, education, etc. etc.  Reg Prentice? Ouch!  As for Paul Elgood, can’t a boy/girl just have a little bit of fun.  What do others think?  Should I lay off Paul Elgood and the Lib Dems?  Your choice.  I could either ignore them completely for the relevance they are, or should I continue to make reference to their slow, well deserved demise?

On the Reg Prentice front, I have attracted support from an East Brighton Tory candidate, Peter Booth, who is determined to ruin my street credibility!  He writes that he fully agrees with my view that it will be great when it is no longer necessary to mention the sexual orientation of candidates. He writes: “The combined ‘left’ just do not see that this is not an issue anymore (well not in our party). Try NOT to live in the past. After all there are more openly gay Conservative MP’s than all other parties put together. For the record and before the criticisms start – 100% of the Conservative candidates standing in East Brighton are openly gay.”

 ’Clive’ comments on the priorities of Labour activists: “With a divided opposition more interested in discussing Caroline Lucas’s house than a post-Tory future in B&H, she (he refers to Mary Mears) could well end up back in charge regardless. Truly depressing”.  I agree about the obsession about Caroline Lucas amongst Labour activists, Dan Wilson in particular.  Get over it, Dan, she won, Labour lost.  Constant nonsense about her abode, when time and again assurances are given that SHE LIVES IN BRIGHTON, does you no credit and makes several people I have spoken to get turned off by Labour and convinces them more and more to vote for Caroline next time.

Some suggest that Dan’s obsession with Caroline goes deeper.  I love Nikki’s comment: “Jeez. Could Dan Wilson be more creepy? Is he trying to stalk Caroline Lucas? Sigh.  Yes, Caroline lives in Brighton. Yes, it’s in Pavilion. And yes, Dan, getting your panties in a bunch over someone’s private address *is* weird and rather unsettling behaviour. Try to get a grip & focus on trying to justify Labour’s sick-making actions over the past decade instead.”  For the record, I don’t believe Dan is stalking her, but get over her victory.

Sven Rufus poses a challenge to Dan Wilson, and comments on the possibility of a Labour / Green pact post May: “The really disappointing thing about Dan Wilson continually banging on about Caroline’s address is that I have already explained to him in detail the answer to his question, possibly even twice. That he keeps raising it despite that is strange – either he has short term memory problems, or struggles to assimiate basic concepts, or he is being deliberately provocative.  It is this sort of nonsense from Dan which makes it very hard for so many Greens to feel comfortable with the prospect of co-operation with the Labour Party. On the one hand he calls for ‘grown up politics, attacking the tories not each other’ – then he turns round and belies all those good words with juvenile and irrelevant attacks. If he wants to have a pop at Caroline/Greens for what we are doing in the political sphere, then we can talk, but while he debases debate like this, his actions suggest that the Labour Party is still feeling bitter about being beaten, and a bit lost – not yet ready to move on to the ‘grown up’ politics bit.  Let us know when you’re ready Dan.”

Steampunk has a great analysis on the Lib Dems approach to canvassing when commenting on Paul Elgood in Brunswick and Adelaide: “Oh dear, I can’t believe that Elgood told you that people don’t open the door to canvassers in bad weather! And you believed him. As you say, it’s a miserable time to be a Liberal Democrat. I personally can’t imagine anything more soul destroying than being an LD right now trying to tempt voters down over intercoms. What the hell do you say to them? – Hi, my names Mark, and I’m your local Liberal Democrat candidate – [click. silence.]  or – Hi, can I just quickly say before I begin that I’m really sorry about Nick Clegg and the whole coalition thing and… – Are you from the Liberal Democrats? – Yes, that’s right, please can I talk to you for 30 seconds? – [click. silence.]  or  – Hi, pizza delivery! – But I didn’t order a pizza? – Well, I’ve got a pizza for you, let me bring it up, we can have a quick chat, I won’t stay long… (NB this could prove expensive, but I suppose the advantage of only targetting two wards is that you get to concentrate your resources?)”.  Nice one, Punky.

In Goldsmid, Rachael Bates confirms that “none of the Goldsmid Conservative candidates are Estate Agents”.  So why do they dress like estate agents?

And finally, several people believe that they have ‘outed’ me by revealing my true identity.  ‘The truth’ (sounds a bit like ‘Honest Second-hand Car Dealer’) writes: “I see that Roy Pennington has been exposed as BPB.  He of course holds huge grudges towards Mears, Fitch, Bodfish, Burgess, Lepper, Theobald, Taylor and every Lib Dem on the planet (without exception). He fell out with them all, big time.  That makes this blog the sad musings of a nasty old man.”  Nice try, one and all.  I’m afraid if I begin denying one suggestion after another, in a mere 250,000 guesses you will have cornered.  And as for Lib Dems, “grudges towards …. every Lib Dem on the planet (without exception)”?  Such a silly exageration.  I knew a lovely Lib Dem (a Liberal back then) in 1981.  We got on great.  No grudge there.  But as for the rest of them ….

Sven Rufus provides a perfectly reasonable response: “Just quickly on the comment about not holding ward surgeries – in Regency we did, and over the space of 6 months at a cost of £30 a time to the Council, only one person came, and that was someone I had already been in touch with who just happened to be passing. No-one other than journalists and political opponents has ever raised concerns with me (and I think I speak for Jason too) about us not holding ward surgeries. We are there at the end of the phone, email, letter and will happily meet with people in person if requested to do so. I’m certainly not convinced that £180 over 6 months to be able to say ‘Nice to put a face to a name’ represents good value.”  Well said, Sven.

Mark Collins is a fan of Paul Elgood.  He says that Paul works extremely hard. “Lib Dems can’t afford not to. Unlike the Tories and Labour there is no such thing as a safe Lib Dem seat.”  I think after May’s local elections in Brighton and Hove, Mark may need to revise that to “there is no such thing as a Lib Dem seat”.

This is where I agree with Mark: “There are Labour and Tory Councillors who knock spots off of others. Dawn Barnett is a hard working Councillor for Hangleton and Knoll. I recall a time when my parents who live in the Ward were having trouble with some god awful road works in the street. An email was sent at 10:30pm and at 9:30am the next day, Dawn was on their doorstep, and by 4pm the next day the works were finished.” 

I don’t think Mark is too off the mark when he says of Dawn Barnett: “She works hard, and has nothing to fear from a ‘return’ by Brian Fitch.”

I think that Marks’s insight into the Les Hamilton Dynasty is worth repeating in full: “Let us also recall that Les Hamilton Snr had a street named after him, by request of local residents (and a bus). He was a truly exceptional councillor, and we can all take lessons from his example. Les Jnr appears to have taken after his father’s spirit as a hard working fighter for his community. Although I’m sorry to say Les, that you have a little way to go to convince my ever combative Nan that you are as good as your father. I’m sure you are.”

My view? There are hard working councillors in all parties (even the Lib Dems!).  I have high regard for the hours and hours most put in to serving their constituents and the City as a whole. I genuinely believe that they deserve better recognition and better financial reward.  If I could redesign the system, I would cut the number of councillors and pay them much more.

Regency Ward: Dan Wilson (Labour candidate) reports – “It seems quite complex to me out there from Liberals. I detect some embarrassment from people who voted LD at the GE but no massive uniform switch. One comment struck me from one such voter yesterday who said that if they were going to vote Green, they would have done it in May when the Greens were campaigning hard. Since they had not heard from the Greens since, she said she was open to persuasion. Labour will have to work hard to win these affluent LDs. Probably harder than the Greens.”  Dan’s fellow Labour candidate  is James Asser.  Regency Greens have announced the selection of its two candidates, sitting councillor Jason Kitcat and Ania Kitcat.  I hope to hear from James, Jason and Ania.  The Labour candidates have been out door knocking twice this week – very impressive so far out from polling day.  It points to a very keenly fought campaign in Regency.  Kitcats take note.

Hollingdean and Stanmer: HP, a resident of the ward writes: “My round-up to date: I was doorstepped by Labour about 8 weeks ago. That’s it. Unfortunately, it was Jeanne Lepper, who I like far less than Pat Hawkes. Sven Rufus appears to have been putting more effort into his roof extension than doing any campaining. I didn’t even know who the other green candidates were until reading this blog. And I’m interested in local politics. All in all, all parties could do much much better!”

Luke Walter (Green candidate in H&S) was out for much of the “very nippy, but pleasant day”.  The highlight of his day  was being asked for a ‘Vote Green’ poster four months before the election.  (Is this a record? asks BPB).  Luke accepts the point I made in an earlier post that he has the hardest challenge to be elected given he is at the bottom of the ballot paper.  He says: “Being Aaron Aaronson certainly increases one’s chances”.  However, he says that history doesn’t always bode disaster for candidates at the bottom of the ballot paper. 

East Brighton: Tory leader councillor Mary Mears has asked the three Labour councillors in East Brighton (Warren Morgan, Gill Mitchell and  Craig Turton) to apologise for “scare mongering” for saying that the Number 37 bus  was to be cut.  She says it is safe.  We will see. 

Rottingdean Coastal:  Is councillor Mears moving her attention away from Rottingdean Coastal?  Has she become too complacent?  Could Christopher Hawtree yet prove me wrong?  How about an update from the Rottingdean campaign, Christopher?

There have been brief sightings of other candidates and councillors around and about.  I enjoyed talking to a couple over the last few days, and learning about the state of Labour politics in east and central Hove.  Oh, dear.  Enough said.

In the sidelines: Paul Perrin of UKIP spent the day queing and walking around the Ark Royal.  Few votes for UKIP there.  Actually, few votes for UKIP anywhere, thank heavens.

And finally, in case you missed it, the Green Party has brought down the government and triggered a general election.  In Ireland, alas.  If only Caroline Lucas was that influential!

Already this weekend there have been interesting reports on Labour activities, with Nancy Platts back in town reporting good response on the doorstep, and keen activity by Labour in Regency Ward.  Green candidates in Brunswick and Adelaide, Ollie Sykes and Phelim MacCafferty, report that they had met 2 former Lib Dem supporters who are outraged by this week’s cutting of Education Maintenance Allowance that they are voting Green for the first time in May. 

The Greens have announced their candidates in two of their key seats, Regency (which they hold) and Hollingdean and Stanmer (one of its key targets).  And inspired selections they are, too.  In Regency the Greens are going with Jason Kitcat, one of the best known and impressive ward councillors in the City.  Fellow councillor, Sven Rufus is moving to stand in Hollingdean and Stanmer, where he lives. The challenge for the Greens was to select a candidate who might one day match Jason in the name-recognition stakes.  And the Party has chosen someone by the name of ….. Kitcat.  Yes, Ania Kitcat, wife of Jason. They are up against Labour’s Dan Wilson and James Asser, nice guys but dull in comparison to the twin-pack Kitcat (sorry, that was pathetic).

In Hollingdean and Stanmer, in addition to Sven Rufus, the Greens have selected community activists Luke Walter and Christina Summers.  Both are well known and respected, and in Christina’s case, will reach residents that traditional activists might not reach.  I still believe there will be a split result in H&S, but with this selection I would predict that Jeane Lepper, Sven Rufus and Christina Summers will be elected.  Nothing against Luke, he will lose out because he will appear at the bottom of the ballot paper.

I suggest that those Tweeting should start using #doorstepbrighton.

I expect the Greens to do well next May.  In September last year I did a review of how I saw things going in each ward, the key wards between Labour and the Greens being Regency, Preston Park, and Queen’s Park.  The Greens are optimistic about Hollingdean and Stanmer, although I think that it might win one, possibly two seats, but certainly not all three.

The danger for the Greens in approaching thses local elections is complacency.  They underestimate Party loyalty and personal votes at their peril.  In Hollingdean and Stanmer, the Greens have made Jeane Lepper into something of a hate figure.  She clearly has got up the noses of Green councillors, but she has a substantial personal vote.  Performance in the Council Chamber and years of case work on the estates are very different things.  To a lesser extent, Pat Hawkes has something of a personal vote but nothing to match that of Jeane Lepper.

To their credit, the Greens are replicating its successful formula from the general election campaign.  The day of action on Saturday demonstrates what the Greens are capable of.  If local organisers can convince Green activists from across the south, London and beyond that a day trip to Brighton and Hove will help them gain control of the City Council.

In the three key wards, the Greens certainly don’t have it wrapped up.  The Labour candidates in Queen’s Park are keen, energetic and very active. But so too are the Greens (I almost described the candidates as ‘young’, keen, etc. until I remembered that the Sussex Square, the ever youthful Geoffrey Bowden, is standing!).  More than half of the Greens sitting councillors are defending their seats, either standing down or in the case of Sven Rufus, moving wards from Regency to Hollingdean and Stanmer.  The Greens will lose the advantage of the individual personal votes. 

Labour have been wise not to field several of the former councillors defeated last time, although several of their less impressive councillors are standing again, which makes areas such as Moulsecoomb and Bevendean vulnerable to a Tory clean sweep, something that should really be unthinkable.

Having given comradely advice to Labour, my comradely advice to the Greens is to avoid complacency.  Build your base (not your greatest strength) and recruit, recruit, recruit. Don’t underestimate loyalty votes, and chase each and every vote.  The results in several wards will be close.

Regency is one of the few wards in the city that has returned Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green councillors in recent years.  It remains a true four way marginal.  Until the mid 1980s it was a safe Tory area, then it went Labour as Labour won control of the old Brighton Council.  Later, the seats were shared between Labour and the Lib Dems (the Lib Dem clearly hadn’t expected to win), before the clean sweep by the Greens in 2007.

In May it will lose one of its current Green councillors as Sven Rufus moves to stand in Hollingbury and Stanmer ward.  This move is an indication of the ambition of the Green Party, that a sitting councillor is willing to stand in a ward that is winnable, but not a certain gain.

Jason Kitcat will be re-elected, and I predict with a massive majority.  There are two reason for this prediction.  Firstly, he is an outstanding ward councillor, tireless, hard-working, and easily recognisable. (His surname, in this respect, is an asset).  In my dealings with him he has ben diligent and reasonable, unlike some other councillors. 

Secondly, he is seen as the victim of a witch hunt by a combination of Labour and Conservatives.  The complaint against him to, and the decision by, the Standards Committee seems petty.  He faces a further hearing on 3rd November that could see him suspended from office for up to 6 months. It is my view that nobody should remove an elected representative other than the electorate.  Nobody likes bullies and I hope that the vote in May will see him elected with a significantly increased majority.

I advocate a vote for the Greens in Regency, both tactically to keep the Tories out and a protest against Labour’s collusion in the witch hunt against Jason Kitcat.

A year or so ago, Pat Hawkes announced her intention to retire next May, but has since then decided to contest the seat again.  However, her re-election is far from certain, nor is that of Christine Simpson who is not one of the most active ward councillors in the City, invisible at ward level and on the council.  The exception is Jeane Lepper who is active, maintains a high profile and will certainly be re-elected.

But something interesting might just happen.  There is a very small chance that the Conservatives will rally their support, but this is unlikely.  It is the Greens who should be watched.  Hollingbury and Stanmer is a key target.  Unlike in 2007, the Greens are organising at the University of Sussex, and showed how much support at election time.  What is more, a seasoned campaigner in the form of Regency Ward councillor Sven Rufus, who lives in Hollingdean, will be standing next May and he has been active building support.

With both Christine Simpson and Pat Hawkes vulnerable, the Greens have every chance of picking up two seats in May.  If they achieve this, they will be a long way down the road of becoming the largest party on the City Council.  My advice for non-Tories is to vote for Jeane Lepper, Sven Rufus and another Green.  This will be such an interesting contest.

And tonight I read in the Argus that her campaign was, indeed, launched at the Fabrica Gallery!

Caroline, whoever it was who suggested Fabrica, sack them. You have problems enough overcoming the appearance of a remote, academic outsider without adding ‘elitist’ to your handicaps.

Hardly a bounce from your conference, what with Sven’s ‘that Platts woman’ own goal and now this.

General elections are not the same as local elections where you will pick up protest votes against the government. Things like this matter, and you have got off to a bad start.

Green Ben thinks I have been unreasonably harsh on Caroline Lucas and the invisibilty of Green activists, saying that it is, after all, the summer holiday season.

Green Amy characteristically puts up well argued, reasoned arguments and provides evidence of Caroline’ activities.

Green Sven has not helped Caroline’ cause by assuming that Labour voters will easily switch from Labour to Greens at a general election and, more damaging, referring to Labour’s Nancy Platts as “that Platts woman”.

Firstly, never underestimate how difficult it is for life-long Labour supporters to change. The Greens can’t be complacent about an automatic tactical vote for the Greens in Brighton Pavilion. Complacency in this respect, bordering on arrogance, could be the Greens Achilles heal. Remember what happened to the Greens in the recent Norwich by-election.

Secondly, the use of the phrase “that Platts woman” does smack of the sexism attached to the criticism of  Thatcher who was often defined by her gender. It never happens to male politicians. When did you last hear reference to “that Blair man”, “that Brown man” or even “that Rufus man”.

The Greens are supposed to offer a different politics but in this respect Sven has scored a terrible own goal.

Treat your opponents with respect. Disagree on policy, fine, but respect Nancy for being a person and candidate of principle, integrity, and commitment.