As in 2012, macroeconomic trends will drive the financial markets in 2013. In 2012, the year and the markets were defined by fear: that China’s economy would slow to a hard landing; that the U.S. economy would stall or the U.S. government would let the country default on its debts; or that in the eurozone, Greece, Spain or Italy would fall into financial chaos.

When those worries moved to the top of investors’ minds, financial markets fell. When those worries receded, financial markets rallied.

Two things should worry you as we head into 2013.

First, investors, Wall Street and economists sound relatively optimistic as 2012 ends and 2013 begins. Consider a story I spotted just as I was writing this piece: Corporate earnings in China will climb by 10% in 2013, according to Russell Investments, and Goldman Sachs has raised its economic forecast for China for 2013. Why is this a worry? Because some stocks and some markets are starting the year discounting a hunk of good news, and that lays the foundation for disappointment.

Second, it’s likely that the narrative for 2013, like that for 2012, isn’t going to unroll in a straight line. We’re likely to be disappointed to learn by the end of 2013 that the eurozone “solution” for Greece doesn’t work, and that the U.S. economy just can’t seem to build up enough speed to generate gobs of jobs. We may get giddy, though, when we learn that China’s growth has reaccelerated and the auto industry is back.

So what do you do? I think you divide your 10 best stocks for 2013 into three parts:

First, stocks that will ride currently discernible trends, if those trends behave as expected.
Second, stocks of companies that are creating their own trends and could dance to their own tunes no matter what news the year brings.
Third, a few risky bets that could pay off big, because the expectations are so low going into 2013.
Shall we begin?