But it is definitely one of the relegated teams from the Championship that are the favourites to go down. Portsmouth are in a lot of trouble and are barely still alive as a club never mind one that is in the third tier of English football. Who knows what their starting 11 will be at the start of the season and how many of them have any experience whatsoever. Manager Michael Appleton has the potential to be a good manager and will obviously come out of this with credit but he is fighting a losing battle.

Next are a team that have just been promoted to the league and that is Shrewsbury Town who have had an interesting summer with a few key players departing in particular one of their strikers James Collins who may have scored the goals to keep them up. So they will have to hope that Marvin Morgan, Terry Gornell and Ryan Doble can do the business in League 1. They have possibly their toughest fixture of the season first which is Sheffield United away so at least that will be out of the way early.

Walsall have been in League 1 for a number of years now and seem to be one of the clubs that will always finish towards the bottom half of the table but avoid relegation and it could be the same yet again. Their top two scorers from last years, Jon Macken and Alex Nicholls have left the club and they weren’t exactly prolific themselves so it is easy to see where they need improving and hopefully their 1-0 win over Brentford in the Capital One Cup will give them the confidence to go on and compete for a place higher up in the table.

Yeovil are another club that seemed to be struggling at the moment and may have a long season in front of them especially as they have lost their main man from last year, Andy Williams, who scored 16 goals in 35 league games but decided to join league newcomers Swindon Town. They have brought in James Hayter and Reuben Reid who I think can score goals at this level so if they remain solid at the back it will be another season in League 1 for them.

A surprising team that are tipped for relegation are Carlisle United because at times last year they looked good and were playing some decent stuff under Greg Abbott but they are another team that has lost one of their better players in Francois Zoko. They still look like they have a good enough side though and should be considered an outside tip for promotion through the playoffs because they have Frank Simek, Jon-Paul McGovern, Matty Robson and Lee Miller (if he can stay fit).

Four teams get relegated from League 1 so obviously there are more contenders but I see these with the exception of Carlisle to be the ones that struggle the most and are in a relegation battle come the end of the season.

They were under severe pressure for most of the game especially in the first half and even in the second when they were more in the game, they only had 40% of the possession. They scored two goals from only three shots on target which shows that they have the quality upfront to punish teams even when they are underperforming.

Graham Turner proved yet again that he is one of the best managers in the division as his half time substitutes were exactly what his team needed and Marvin Morgan scored the winner after some battling work from Jermaine Grandison. Grandison won the ball and played through Morgan who cooly slotted it past the advancing keeper. Turner, realised he had to change things as his team were under a lot of pressure however his team had just equalised through Mark Wright before halftime and this may have made some managers change their team talk and give the players on the pitch another 15 minutes to change their performance. But, he stuck to his guns and this proved decisive as they went on to win the game.

I was really impressed with Shrewsbury and they had some standout performances all over the pitch. Goalkeeper Chris Neal pulled off some brilliant saves including a fantastic reaction stop from Sanchez Watt. He did keep them in the game at times and couldn’t really do much about the goal as it was a very good finish from John Akinde but he definitely deserves a lot of praise for his performance. Ian Sharps, at the back also impressed me and his experience could prove vital if the team are to get promoted this season. He led the defence well and was rarely beaten in the air and although he may not be the quickest his positioning was usually perfect which gave him a few yards so he did not get outrun by the fast forward line of Crawley.

I really like Mark Wright on the wing for Shrewsbury as well because he has the pace and directness to frighten defenders and isn’t afraid to try a trick. Also his goal scoring rate is really impressive for a winger and he must contribute to a lot of goals with assists too. It is quite rare to find a winger that will add a substantial amount of goals but in Wright they definitely have a constant threat. Matt Richards caught my eye too and I am surprised he is playing in League 2 as he looked like he had a lot of potential when he was a youngster at Ipswich Town. He plays the game simple and keeps the ball very well for his team. When the team were under pressure he used his experience to slow the tempo down and dictate the game.

Now the strikers is where Shrewsbury really show their quality as in my opinion they have three strikers that will score goals in this division. James Collins looks like a goal scorer who will get a lot from inside the box and quite a few of them with his head. Terry Gornell who did not have the best of games in fairness is usually a very clever striker and will perform better than this and will score a lot more goals for the club. Finally, they have Marvin Morgan who is very tall but this isn’t why he is a good striker, it is his ability with the ball at his feet and his turn of pace. He also showed that he can finish when the opportunity comes along.

Shrewsbury are a good bet for promotion and I for one will not be backing against them because they have quality all over the pitch and a manager that deserves some more success in his long career.

Saturday’s excursion to Middlesbrough would end up being the final of such trips to teams of higher-standing at least for this season.

From a Shrewsbury perspective, it was a cruel way to go out when the effort and endeavour displayed gave rise to the prominent idea that at the very least, Shrewsbury should have had the opportunity to return the favour of a welcome in the name of The FA Cup with Budweiser Third Round (or Ninth Round depending on individual preference). Alas it was not to be as Middlesbrough were victorious by a solitary strike from the boot of Dutch forward Marvin Emnes.

The goal itself was certainly preventable. Scored in front of the away end, it seemed to be one of those moments that drags on too much. An emotional reaction of course but what rankled was that goalkeeper Chris Neal must have felt that his teammates in front of him could’ve dealt with the danger. That was to their collective downfall as Emnes showed strength before prodding the ball into the net. Why it rankles is that upon the next cross entering the goal area in an almost identical position, Neal leapt and parried the ball away to a more comfortable setting.

It is not to mark Neal as the reason behind the result. His goalkeeping exploits after that moment were much more assured and he made some very good saves to prevent Middlesbrough from truly killing off the contest. When all analysis is done into individual performances, the actual reason as to why Shrewsbury can focus all their attention on league matters (something they desperately need to do with results if automatic promotion is to be achieved) and not be looking forward to hosting a Championship club that longs to return to that oh-so-glamorous of lands (Premier League to give the actual name) is the gap between those nearer the top of the English football pyramid and those not. Technical attributes are an important element but what this game reinforced was the point that it is the tactical mindset and the appropriate positioning that makes that all important difference.

Terry Gornell’s performance would prove to be the focal point of frustration as like he did against Northampton, he ran into spaces but appeared to not know quite what to do when there. It is not to his detriment. He is still young and he will improve judging by his natural characteristics but it was his lack of positional sense and that of some of his colleagues that saw Shrewsbury fail. The point comes in the substitution when Gornell was replaced. James Collins came on and caused an immediate problem to the Middlesbrough defence. They had become used to Gornell and fellow forward Martin Morgan’s movement back into channels and expected to be met by a similar threat. With the initiative required, Collins stayed forward in the centre much more and it was this that helped Shrewsbury create more chances in the latter stages of the game.

It would’ve been more interesting if Collins had been introduced some 15 or so minutes earlier but it was not to be the case on this occasion. The same applies to Jon Taylor’s introduction from the bench as well. His running into central areas caught Middlesbrough unaware in some moments but it was those moments where Middlesbrough’s technical edge showed.

It is not to be too detrimental to any individual players’ effort. That would be cruel. It is more the fact that sometimes a player just falls into a pattern. There is always talk of the great players being ones who can do the unexpected and maybe it is this eulogised power that divides the haves and have-nots of the game. Shrewsbury can be proud that they were far from disgraced and can hopefully turn such an experience into greater improvements in future scenarios. The key is always to react accordingly to such setbacks. In reality, Middlesbrough were expected to be victorious and the Salopians were expected to return to Shropshire with defeat ringing in their ears no matter how much pride could be derived from it. The result simply fitted into the current natural order of English football. Therefore, it’s only inevitable that it would be routinely ignored by the greater population desperately seeking some upset to boost the want for there to be some “romance of the cup”.

Besides had Shrewsbury progressed at the expense of the Riverside dwellers then the Fourth Round wouldn’t have one of its “derby” games to get excited about. Sunderland versus Middlesbrough appeals to the market more than Sunderland versus Shrewsbury. Home games are bankers after all when the gap between the teams is large in the English footballing pyramid of power.

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Total Stakes £508.55

Total Winnings £731.39

The Loss Counter £222.84

And thus the first month of my blog draws to a close – what are my reflections of the month and what is still to come?! Well firstly, I am sat nicely in a position of profit, something which I definitely wasn’t expecting. My good form (& when I say this, I mean wins of £300 plus) doesn’t usually come around until February/March & whilst I am not counting on history to repeat itself then, it does feel good to be ahead of the bookies at this point in time. On the plus side, Goal Minute bets have been very kind to me & I will comment on this weekends rewards in a moment, however i’ve also had a couple of reasonable accumulator wins as well, whilst it’s worth remembering that £60 of my stakes are tied up in season long bets, so it’s actually been a very successful month. On the downside, I kicked off the campaign in appauling fashion, foolishly backing AFC Bournemouth to the tune of £25 to win at Charlton, whilst i’m actually shocked to see that my total stakes have amounted to over £500 in a month!! I have reasoned with my conscience that if I had been shelling out that kind of money with no return, i’d actually have shut down the stakes very quickly, however it does make me think how much I have handed over to the bookmakers in previous seasons!

Moving on to an analysis of this weekends returns, it has to be said that again most of my accumulators were well off the pace, however my £6 on Brighton, Leicester, Charlton to win yielded a nice return of £65.98 – as ever, the last 5-10 minutes saw me chewing fingernails & hitting refresh on the bbc live football updates, Leicester holding on to a 3-2 victory at home to Southampton & Charlton coming from behind to win 2-1 at Bury, although in my mind the Addicks owed me that for the £25 lost on Bournemouth on the opening day! I banked £60 of that & slapped the remaining £5.98 on a double for Liverpool & Lyon to win their Saturday evening games. That they duly did, returning me £12.56 with which I immediately backed Man Utd to beat an underwhelming Arsenal side – 8 Man Utd goals later & I had £18.84 sat in the Ladbrokes account, should be a nice amount for this weekends League 1 & 2 games.

Goal Minutes is where I really picked up though, whilst Alex Revell didn’t start & my £9 was refunded, Jimmy Kebe (who did have a goal disallowed!), Dean Bowditch & Luke Chadwick  all failed to score losing me £29 between them, there was fortunately good news with my other selections. Firstly, my big bet for the day Shaun Miller of Crewe (whom I had staked £3 at 13) opened the scoring in the 42nd minute at Plymouth – £126 stright off. I had hoped that he was just getting started, but he didn’t trouble the scoresheet in the 2nd half & was replaced 15 minutes or so before time, never mind though, the lad had given me a nice return! In the Championship, my faith in Luke Jutkiewiscz was repayed as he scored a 78th minute goal to earn a point at Middlesbrough, admittedly it wasn’t a screamer that my belief in his ability would imply he is capable of, but another £39 in the pocket, thankyou sir, those goals all count!! Lastly, I had tipped Terry Gornell & Marvin Morgan to cause problems for Swindon – I eventually opted for Gornell, who duly obliged in the 57th minute, however if i’d had a little more conviction I would have earned a tidy sum extra as Morgan went on to score the winner in the 71st minute….c’est la vie, I should not complain. At that point I decided to clear out the sporting index account, save for £28 which was split between Cabaye & Steven Taylor for Newcastle (8 & 3 respectively) & Nani at 17. Annoyingly Cabaye had one shot tipped over by Schwarzer in the first half of their game, then in the second another speculative effort was fumbled onto the bar by the Fulham stopped only for Leon Best to knock in the rebound. Man Utd obviously then went to town on Arsenal, Nani had to score didn’t he….but he was wasteful on the ball, often losing posession, chipping the ball over the bar when out wide (much to Rooney’s frustration!), stumbling when presented with a tap in…I was concinved it was only a matter of time before he was withdrawn, but thankfully, in the 67th minute he was slipped in again & as I braced myself for another wasted opportunity he nonchanantly flipped the ball over Szczesny to get Uniteds 5th….its fair to say I celebrated as if I was a United fan & the relief was doubled when that proved to be his last touch of the game, immediately being replaced by Ji Sung Park.

And how are my season bets fairing – well, most pundits are currently reminding us that nothing is won in August, so I shall not be getting too excited at this stage. However, as expected Blackburn & Fulham have started poorly so i’m pleased with those at the moment, Demba Ba is yet to score for Newcastle & although he has had playing time, you have to worry when you see Dzeko & Rooney on 6 & 5 goals respectively! In the Championship, Leicester currently sit 6 points off top side Brighton, I get the impression that the side is still gelling, so long as they stay in touch of the leaders i’m not too worried, Sven will have them in the right place come the end of the season. Nugent & Mackail-Smith both have 2 goals to their name, Charlie Austin, Kevin Phillips, Marvin Emnes & David Connolly currently lead the way with 4 for Burnley, Blackpool, Middlesbrough & Southampton respectively – the latter 3 I am particularly concerned about in consideration of someone running away from my boys! In League 1, Preston responded well from a shock home defeat on the opening day & are now unbeaten in 4 sitting happily just 3 points off MK Dons in top spot, Bradley Wright Phillips has 3 goals to his name (1 behind Ryan Lowe) whilst Steve Lovell will soon be in the goals so long as he stays injury free. I should also note at this time, that AFC Bournemouth look in massive trouble, defensively incompetent, a management team with few ideas & confidence seemingly oozing out of the side – some points in Septemember will be vital or it could be a very lean winter for my boys. Finally in Leagye 2, Oxford have had a reasonable start & occupy 9th place with 8 points, 5 behind leaders Rotherham. I’m delighted to add that Izale Mcleod is leading the goalscoring stakes with 5 goals in 5 games, whilst Shaun Miller currently sits on 2. I just hope that they don’t get snapped up by teams in higher leagues too early (Adam Le Fondre has already moved on!) which is always a possibility at this level.

I am going to close by saying well done Morecambe in League 2, a team I tipped to struggle are defying the budgetary odds & are enjoying 2nd place in the table – I will be keeping an eye on their form to see if they become candidates for my accy’s, however I have to say, I don’t trust them yet!!!