The AP is reporting that as world markets absorbed the shock of Dubai’s debt crisis, the ruler of the once-booming city-state left town for an important meeting in a desert palace. His hosts: the leaders of neighboring Abu Dhabi whose balance sheets are flush with oil revenue.

It’s not known what promises were made inside the halls in Al Ain during the parade of visitors for an important Islamic feast day on Friday. But their new relationship is clear. Abu Dhabi has the cash and cache to be Dubai’s white knight — in a Gulf version of a too-big-to-fail bailout or to help calm markets with promises to intervene if Dubai’s fiscal mess deepens.

Asian markets have followed Europe in a slide amid fears about Dubai’s massive debt, which have also driven the U.S. dollar lower. South Korea’s KOSPI lost 4.7 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 4.8 percent.

Investors are worried that a default by a government investment company in Dubai over $60 billion in debt payments could have a ripple effect in world financial markets. The fear is that losses in the small emirate, which has drawn wealthy tourists from around the globe in the past decade with its Las Vegas-in-the-Middle East appeal, could imperil a nascent economic rebound…CBS news reports.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/11/27/business/main5799521.shtml

Christopher Davidson, an expert in Emirate affairs at Britain’s Durham University, wondered if Abu Dhabi wanted to become too deeply involved in lifting Dubai from its fiscal wreckage.

“There is no point throwing good money into Dubai’s black holes,” Davidson said. “These are mistakes of Sheik Mohammed and he needs to deal with them.”

I guess that what goes up, must sometimes come down.I hope for better days in Dubai….

Follow story from the source here…

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jgIwsGJtixo-F6a2j5e8hebIbaEwD9C8JAB00

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32inch lcd hdtv

Volatility is coming back into the currency markets following the news that Dubai World is looking to default on its debts. Overnight again we see some strength from the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar.

The first setup I noticed this morning was a descending triangle forming on the AUDUSD 5 min chart and this was just above the big number 0.9000. So waited for the line of support to be broken and a close below the 0.9000 level before entering the trade. We got the close below, by 1 point, and the trade was entered but straight away the price rallied and broke back up through the line of resistance and the trade was closed for a loss of 15 points. So the first trade failed, but that is trading we know not every trade will be a winner. So eyes back onto the charts looking for another set up.

Cable was trading in a box pattern and with 7am approaching this is where I would be focusing my eyes for the next trade. We get the close below support at 7am and the trade was entered, but this time I was looking for a target of 50 points based on the box pattern, not the usual 20 points from the 7am break. The 50 point target also tied in with the support 1 (S1) level of the daily pivots. And after 20 minutes the target was hit and the trade closed for 50 points profit.

So one win and one loss this morning but still up 35 points.

Learning Points

1: Understand Risk, what is the most you could lose on the trade if it went against you.

2: A loss is a business expense, you will always get them. Learn to accept them and move on.

Quote of the day from Marty Schwartz

“I’m more concerned about controlling the downside. Learn to take the losses. The most important thing about making money is not to let your losses get out of hand.”

Investidores novatos em situação de desespero com a volatilidade da bolsa tendem a abrir de suas estratégias, ignorando seu plano de trade vendendo seus ativos a preço de banana e semeando o medo.

É compreensível que, ao ver o lucro comemorado indo embora a cada novidade que tumultua a cena externa, o trader acabe colocando as emoções em foco, em detrimento do “sangue-frio” e da disciplina que os “mestres” tanto recomendam. Em momentos como o tal, algumas técnicas ajudam a preservar o foco, conforme Alexandre Wolwacz menciona no livro Táticas Operacionais de Posição em Ações.

Regras de ouro
Em primeiro lugar, atenção às dez regras que o trader não pode esquecer:

1. Não se vende um ativo em tendência de alta;

2. Não se compra um ativo em tendência de baixa;

3. Não se adiciona posições a uma posição perdedora;

4. Adicionar posições a um trade vencedor é uma ótima estratégia;

5. Confie mais na tendência do que em todos os outros indicadores juntos e reunidos;

6. Não opere mais do que absolutamente o necessário;

7. Não opere na dúvida, se surgirem dúvida, saia fora;

8. Não entre em um trade sem uma boa razão (ou várias), mas, depois que entrar, não saia de um trade sem uma boa razão;

9. Não compre apenas pelos dividendos;

10. Evite operar alavancado. O risco excessivo consome o capital rapidamente.

Dito isto, a pergunta é: quando realizar lucros? Segundo Wolwacz, basicamente, existem três tipos de filosofia, cada uma com as suas vantagens. De acordo com a primeira delas, a hora da realização de lucros só chega quando de uma reversão de tendência. Já a segunda vê no target do trade o sinal para realização, enquanto a terceira delas é uma composição de ambas.

Em defesa do lucro
A primeira estratégia tem como vantagens a possibilidade de o investidor aproveitar movimentos mais amplos do mercado, a redução dos gastos com corretagem e menor necessidade de acompanhamento do trade. Por outro lado, pode deixar os traders mais ativos inquietos, gerar ansiedade nas fases de recuo dentro da tendência principal e promover um menor aproveitamento do tempo em relação ao lucro.

Por sua vez, realizar lucros nos alvos reduz possíveis perdas devido à volatilidade do ativo, permite capitalizar e aproveitar o lucro para potencializar os movimentos dentro da tendência e reduz o estresse de estar comprado durante as fases de recuo. Em contrapartida, implica em maiores custos de corretagem e requer maior acompanhamento do mercado.

Dados os ótimos argumentos, a dúvida permanece: é melhor realizar lucros no alvo ou na reversão de tendência? A resposta de Wolwacz é: “nós devemos realizar os lucros no alvo e nós devemos realizar os lucros quando a tendência reverter”.

70/30
O plano é executar a entrada no ponto e, na medida em que o ativo se aproxima do alvo estimado, fechar 70% da posição comprada. Os outros 30% da posição comprada devem ser mantidos até que seja visualizado algum tipo de reversão de tendência.

“A beleza dessa técnica é a de que, ao realizar o lucro de 70% da posição, liberamos o capital para outras operações; com o lucro obtido garantimos que a operação fechará no lucro, mesmo que nosso stop mais longo seja atingido. Essa segurança nos permite ficar comprado pelo tempo necessário de reversão da tendência”.

Adaptação do texto de Fernanda Senra

With the US traders away from their desks for the next two days I was expecting few trading opportunities due to the reduced volume. Oh how wrong was I, trade what you see and not what you think was spot on today.

Overnight the Japanese Yen pairs had put in some big moves, GBPJPY and EURJPY both falling 200 points and USDJPY falling 100 points. Noticed at 6am on the 5 min chart a double bottom forming on the JPY pairs and quickly placed a trade on USDJPY. Price action ran into the big number of 87.00 and started to roll over, so closed the trade for 30 pips profit.

The 7am trade on GBPUSD was then next thing on my radar, but with the two big seller candles just before 7am I was THINKING that the move had already started. But then we had some buyers entering the market giving a temporary lift to the price, but with the sellers still winning the battle of this candle, it left a gravestone doji indicating some more downward pressure ahead. So the trade was entered on the break of this candle and it fell quickly to the 20 pip target level.

The GBPUSD started to consolidate on the 5 min chart, offering another trading opportunity. Waited for the candle to close below the support level and entered the trade. Price quickly fell through my target of the big number at 1.6600 and closed the trade for 30 pips of profit.

7:35 my daily target hit and I am done for the day.

Learning Points

1: Trade what you see and not what you think.

2: The price action is the most up to date information available to traders.

Quote of the day from Warren Buffett

Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royse to get advice from those who take the subway.

Half way through the week already and with the US on holiday for pretty much the rest of the week who knows what will happen with the charts. This time next month it will be Christmas day (scarey thought)

It has been a difficult week for me. I went to a funeral on Monday and Tuesday was exhausted from the travelling. I really should not have been trading on either day but did I listen to myself NO I DID NOT. The result being 0.5% down for those 2 days when I should have known better. What did I trade? Heaven only knows. But I have definitely learnt my lesson (although I seem to have had this lesson many times in the past and still I have to resit the exam!). My saving grace was that I only traded 0.25% risk per trade so it could have been a lot worse.

At least Wednesday has been a turnaround day for me

……UNLEASH THE SECRET WEAPON……..

Having refocussed last night, I was ready to start afresh today. No more thoughts of yesterday, I have learnt the lessons needed and I’m ready to trade the right way.

What a relief it was to see the James Bond cable trade setting up for the morning. Entry Long @ 1.6626 Stop Loss @ 1.6611 Target @ 1.6701. Reward:Risk = 5:1.

The trade triggered long @ 0615 and hit the target at 0800. That’s 75 pips in the bag and the last 2 previous days losses covered and a bit extra to replenish the account. That’s 3 for 3 for Mr Bond this month.

USDCAD TRADE

This was not a set play like James Bond above but I have found that when the price consolidates and moves sideways into the moving average it does give a nice move out the other side.

This morning USDCAD did just that:

Not only was there the consolidation into the moving averages, there was also confirmation from the MACD which during the consolidation was making lower lows. The entry was quite close to 1.0500 (the big number) but I have found that if price wants to go through big numbers then it will, it may stall here but not necessarily hold it up completely.

Entered short at 1.0519; stop @ 1.0533. Trade exited @ 1.0476 profit 43 pips. Reason for exit – after fast move short the inside bar was broken to the upside. On reflection I could have stayed in the trade until price closed inside the moving average, however break of the inside bar was a valid reason to exit (as well as a valid reason to add to the trade if it had continued to move in my favour).

Lessons:

To be the best at whatever you do you need to be in the best possible condition, mentally and physically. Don’t expect great results if you are feeling below form.

Set plays are wonderful strategies – they don’t show up all the time but when they do EXECUTE them.

The EURUSD was the currency pair that interested me this morning, the 5 min chart was trending higher but it was running into the big psychological number of 1.5000. It tried to break this level twice but both times was rejected. So I placed a short trade as the price fell back below the 1.5000 level with a tight stop just above the previous high, a low risk in points with a potential high reward. But price fell to the trend line but could not break it. From here the price rallied, took out my stop and continued to trade higher.

So now I was happy to look to trade in the direction of the trend as the 1.5000 level had clearly been broken. After setting new highs price started to pull back to give me an excellent trading opportunity. Try to look for more than one reason to take the trade.

1^st reason – Price had pulled back to the previous line of resistance which would now act as support.

2^nd reason – This level was also a 50% fib retracement level of the previous move.

3^rd reason – This level was also Resistance 1 (R1) of the daily pivot levels.

4^th reason – The reversal candle was a small inside candle allowing your stop loss to be close to your entry price, thus keeping your risk in points on the trade very small.

5th reason – The big psychological number of 1.5000 was just below and should now act as support.

Entered the trade when price traded above the high of the small reversal candle and waited for the price action to set new highs before starting to trail the stop up behind each new candle.

With the daily pivot levels being a leading indicator the resistance 2 (R2) level was my target, the price came within 3 points of this level before turning and hitting my stop loss banking 20 points from the trade.

Learning Points

1: The more reasons for entry adds strength to the set up, but do not get bogged down with over analysis or you will never pull the trigger waiting for only the perfect set up.

2: With the correct use of money management a 50% success ratio can provide substantial profits.

Quote of the day from Ed Seykota

“Everybody gets what they want from the markets…”

Overnight there was clearly some dollar strength around, EURUSD and GBPUSD where trending lower on the 5 min charts and the Japanese Yen was also displaying some overnight strength, with the EURJPY, GBPJPY and USDJPY all trending down. I wanted to join in with these great trends but there was just no setups forming.

Could I have just gone short at anytime as the charts where clearly trending lower, yes I could of. But with no clear trading set up I did not have a strategy to follow, where would I place my stop loss, what would be my target. I would be purely trading on emotion, some days you may get away with it, but over a course of the year trading on emotions is a good way to empty your trading account.

I had missed a clear trading opportunity on EURJPY, but as this triggered before 6am I was not looking at the screens. There was a clear line of support on the 5 min chart. When the price action broke this line, the price started to fall as expected but then put in a small rally back up to the line of support, which has now become a line of resistance. Price turned at this level and continued on down.   So there were 2 trading opportunities, but both triggered before I was in a position to start trading this morning.

Learning Points

1: Do not go chasing the markets, there will always be another opportunity.

2: Capital preservation should be your main concern in times of uncertainty.

Quote of the day from Bruce Kovner

“The first rule of trading—there are probably many first rules–is don’t get caught in a situation in which you can lose a great deal of money for reasons you don’t understand”

PROSES MENJADI SEORANG TRADER BERJAYA
(Dimana tahap anda?)

Tahap 1 ( Unconscious Incompetence )

Ini merupakan langkah pertama yang anda ambil apabila anda mendengar
pelbagai perkara menarik berkenaan forex dan bahawa pendapatan seorang
trader forex mengalahkan pendapatan seorang pengarah syarikat. Bagi
anda, apalah susah sangat untuk trade forex, ia hanya menentukan harga
naik atau turun. Lagi pun ada disediakan akaun demo untuk latihan
sebelum memulakan trade sebenar. Lalu tanpa berfikir panjang anda pun
mendaftar akaun sebenar dan mendepositkan wang ke akaun tersebut bagi
memulakan trading sebenar setelah anda dapati trade di akaun demo anda
dapat menghasilkan keuntungan yang berlipat-ganda.

Anda mungkin mendapat keuntungan dengan hasil yang menakjubkan di antara 100 ke 200 pip per lot sehari,.
Anda percaya bahawa dengan hanya berdasarkan 1 indicator saja, atau
bahkan hanya dengan gerak-hati anda dapat menghasilkan keuntungan.
Namun itu semua hanyalah nasib saja (beginner luck), pasaran
akan mengalahkan anda. Tidak ada trader yang berjaya hanya dengan
faktor TUAH/LUCK. Kerugian demi kerugian akan mula menghampiri anda,
anda akan cuba bertahan, namun kalau sampai margin habis, siapa yang
dapat bertahan??.

Anda sama sekali tidak menyedari bahawa anda tidak mampu
untuk trade forex, namun anda tetap mengatakan pada diri anda bahawa
yang anda mampu untuk melakukan trading walaupun semua fakta berkata
sebaliknya (Persoalannya: Apakah bulan ini profit?, atau Bulan lepas
profit?, ataupun Tahun ini profit? ).

Anda tetap mengatakan bahawa anda adalah orang yang hebat, orang yang akan mampu mendapatkan kunci kekayaan dari trading. Dan anda tidak menyedari bahwa 90% trader yang gagal juga
mempunyai perasaan seperti itu. Anda tidak mempunyai sistem yang
lengkap, anda dikuasai oleh emosi anda, anda selalu cuba mengimbangi
perasaan anda jika kerugian dengan MARAH pada pasaran, anda selalu
mengambil keuntungan dalam jumlah yang kecil atau membiarkan ia berubah
dari keuntungan jadi kerugian karena anda dikuasai oleh sifat TAMAK, adakala anda tidak pernah trading karena anda TAKUT. Anda membiarkan diri anda dikuasai oleh emosi sehingga margin equity anda menderita.

90% orang yang trade forex hanya sampai pada tahap ini, mereka biasanya kehabisan modal, berhenti trade dan menganggap ini semua hanya mimpi buruk belaka.
Sebahagian lagi tetap mencari modal dari rakan-rakan/investor dan trade
seperti orang gila. dalam sebulan atau dua bulan margin habis lalu
mereka mencari mangsa lagi. Ini akan mewujudkan masalah moral yang
teruk.
Mereka masih mengaku sebagai trader namun sebenarnya mereka
executor. dan biasanya yang moralnya teruk ini dengan senang hati akan
mengambil wang dari rakan-rakan dengan menabur pelbagai janji-jani
(pulangan lumayan) dan kononnya akan trade sebagai manage fund untuk
mereka. Sebahagiannya lagi akan tetap terus seperti biasa dan mengaku
trader tetapi tidak pernah trading, mereka biasanya menyalahkan diri
mereka sendiri.

Hanya
waktu yang menentukan segalanya, sampai bila mereka dapat bertahan di
tahap ini dan biasanya waktu selalunya menang. Proses ini selalunya
dalam lingkungan waktu SEMINGGU hingga SEBULAN

90% traders akan terus gagal dan kekal ditahap ini, hanya 10% dari mereka yang sedar ini akan pindah ke Tahap 2.

Tahap 2 ( Conscious Incompetence )

Di tahap ini anda sedar bahawa anda tidak mampu untuk trading, anda tidak memiliki kemampuan untuk trading yang menghasilkan keuntungan secara konsisten.
Dan anda tahu penyelesaiannya, Anda sedar bahawa selama di Tahap 1
fikiran anda dikaburkan oleh emosi anda sehingga anda tidak dapat
berfikir secara bernas.
Di tahap ini anda akan mencari ‘Holy Grail’
( sistem yang sempurna/keramat, sistem yang memberikan keuntungan 100%
, sistem yang tidak ada kerugian), anda mulai membeli sistem yang ada
di internet, anda membaca semua website yang ada tentang trading mulai
dari Malaysia hingga ke USA, anda baca semua ebook yang ada, anda
praktikkan semua sistem yang anda perolehi, anda dahagakan ilmu seperti
seorang pengembara di padang pasir yang dahagakan air minuman.

Pada tahap ini anda akan membaca semua perincian tentang sistem
automasi trading/indicator, anda akan test semua indicator yang ada di
Metatrader, bahkan anda mungkin akan membuat indikator sendiri (
biasanya gabungan 2 atau 3 indicator), anda akan bermain-main dengan
Moving Everage, Fibonnacci lines, Pivot Point, Camarilla Pivot, DeMark,
Fractal, MACD, DMI. ADX, Bollinger Bands, dan ratusan indicator yang
lain.

Anda tahu bahawa pasaran terlalu rumit untuk dijangka hanya dengan 1
indicator saja. Anda akan mengabungkan kombinasi ideal dari setiap
indicator. Anda tahu keunggulan indicator tersebut dan juga
kelemahannya. Anda akan mencuba menanda TOP dan BOTTOM di pasaran dan
meneka titik perubahan pergerakan pasaran dengan indicator tersebut.
Namum anda dapati yang anda terus gagal walaupun anda rasa yang anda
telah melakukan yang terbaik.

Anda kini akan cuba bergabung dengan chat room trader dan menanyakan
pelbagai pertanyaan di forum-forum kerana bagi anda kalau anda tidak
bertanya sekarang maka selamanya anda tidak akan tahu. Anda ingin
mengetahui bagaimana trader lain membuat keuntungan walahal anda
tidak.. Ketika ini anda akan memikirkan mereka yang mengatakan
mendapatkan keuntungan ratusan pip sehari adalah penipu – anda rasa
anda tahu semuanya dan telah cuba melakukan apa yang mereka lakukan.

Anda akan jadi seperti seorang remaja – trader yang lebih berpengalaman
akan menasihati anda supaya mencari guru yang betul dalam menuntut ilmu
tetapi anda degil dan memikirkan yang anda tahu apa yang terbaik – anda
meneruskan pembelajaran anda melalui bahan2 diinternet dan overtrade
akaun anda walaupun semua orang kata anda gila (anda sesat dalam
kebijaksanaan anda – overload information). Kini anda akan
mempertimbangkan melanggan isyarat berbayar melalui perkhidmatan SMS
dan sebagainya – serta termakan janji-janji manis penyedia khidmat
pembelajaran forex yang menjanjikan pelbagai teknik mudah dan cepat
untuk berjaya dalam trading tanpa memikirkan jika benarlah ia semudah
yang dinyatakan, sudah semestinya ramai yang menjadi jutawan.

Pada akhirnya anda akan mendapatkan 5 hingga 10 sistem yang lengkap dan
mencuba mencari sistem mana yang paling sesuai dengan
keperibadian/stail anda. Namum di tahap ini anda akan sentiasa
kebinggungan kerana mendengar ramai trader yang mendapat keuntungan
dari hari ke hari dan anda pula terus kerugian.

Ramai trader yang berada ditahap ini lenyap dalam masa sebulan yang
pertama dan jika ada yang mampu bertahan untuk mengharunginya berakhir
sekitar 3 bulan.

Dari 10% trader yang ada di tahap ini, hanya sekitar 7% yang berhasil pindah ke Tahap 3.

Tahap 3 (The EUREKA Moment)

Pada akhir Tahap 2, anda akhirnya menyedari pokok permasalahan bukan terletak di sistem. An

da menyedari bahwa anda mampu mendapat keuntungan bahkan jika hanya
menggunakan sistem yang mudah seperti Trendline sekali pun tanpa ada
indicator lain, jika anda mampu melakukan sedikit kajian melalui
pemerhatian yang menyeluruh dan mempelajari pengurusan trading yang
baik.

Anda mulai membaca buku tentang psikologi trading, dan
mengidentifikasikannya pada diri anda dengan karakter yang dijelaskan
dalam buku itu. Akhirnya membawa anda ke Tahap 3 iaitu Tahap Pencerahan.

Proses pencerahan ini membuat otak anda menyedari satu hal yang
penting, di dunia ini tidak ada seorang pun yang mampu meneka secara
tepat apa yang akan terjadi pada pasaran 30 detik berikutnya. Apa yang
anda perlu hanyalah satu sistem trading yang sesuai dengan stail trade
anda serta bimbingan seseorang berkenaan pengurusan trading yang
sepatutnya sehingga anda dapat cara bertrading yang betul.

Anda mulai menguasai satu sistem trading dan memodifikasinya sehingga
sesuai dengan karakter anda, dan mampu memberikan lebih banyak profit
dibandingkan sistem yang asli.

Anda mulai trading jika anda tahu kemungkinan untuk untung lebih besar
daripada untuk rugi, anda hanya trading jika ada signal dari sistem
anda, anda selalu menggunakan stoploss, karena anda tahu stoploss
adalah risiko bisnes yang ada dalam dunia trading.

Ketika stoploss anda kena, anda tidak emosi kerana anda tahu tak
seorang pun mampu menjangkakannya, dan itu bukan kesalahan anda.
Trading berikutnya akan meningkat peluang keuntungan anda kerana anda
tahu sistem anda itu sistem yang menguntungkan secara keseluruhannya.

Anda secara tidak langsung menyedari bahawa dalam dunia trading hanya
ada satu hal yang penting iaitu konsistensi pada sistem, psikologi
trading dan pengurusan wang yang betul. Dan kedisiplinan anda untuk
dalam melakukan trading mengurangkan risiko kerugian anda.

Anda
mempelajari tentang perlunya ada guru/teman yang dapat memberikan anda
bimbingan yang baik dan sokongan berterusan serta hal-hal lainnya. Ia
mengingatkan anda suatu ketika yang lalu di mana anda diberi nasihat
tersebut dari trader yang berpengalaman dan anda memilih untuk
mengendahkannya ketika itu. Kini anda tahu kenapa anda hanya perlukan
seorang guru yang baik yang dapat memberikan didikan dan bimbingan yang
diperlukan untuk berjaya dalam trading dan bukannya seorang super
trader yang menjaja kehebatan sistem/strategi beliau.
Trader
akan mengharungi tahap ini sekitar 6 bulan sebelum akhirnya menerima
hakikat sebenar bahawa tidak siapa yang mampu meramalkan pergerakan
pasaran.

Dari 7% trader yang ada di tahap ini, hanya sekitar 5% yang berhasil maju ke tahap berikutnya.

Tahap 4 ( Conscious Competence )

Sekarang anda hanya trading jika dan hanya jika sistem anda memberi
signal. Anda menggunakan stop loss atau cut loss apabila menyedari
terdapat signal yang bertentangan kerana anda tahu sistem anda akan
lebih banyak memberikan keuntungan daripada kerugian, dan cut loss yang
anda lakukan adalah resiko bisnis yaitu max 2% dari account anda.

Di tahap ini anda memulai pandai memperingkatkan target keuntungan
trade anda dan setelah anda mampu melakukannya secara konsisten selama
beberapa minggu, anda meningkatkan target tersebut ke semaksimum yang
boleh. Dan hal itu pada akhirnya mampu anda lakukan.

Anda memang masih harus kerja keras untuk mendapatkannya, memperbaiki
sistem anda (dengan menambah 1 atau 2 indicator yang sesuai bagi
menyokong system anda), menguasai emosi anda, dan melaksanakan
pengurusan wang yang anda pelajari dan pegang. Anda mulai mendapat
pengalaman bertrading sebenar.

Tahap ini biasanya berjalan sekitar setahun atau lebih bergantung kepada kemampuan penerimaan seseorang trader itu.

Dari 5% trader hanya sekitar 3% yang sanggup maju ke tahap berikutnya.

Tahap 5 ( Unconscious Competence )

Nah! Sekarang anda telah sampai di Tahap 5, ini adalah tahap yang
paling diharapkan oleh seluruh trader di dunia ini, di tahap ini anda
mampu trading secara rilek, anda telah menguasai semuanya, anda mampu
berdansa mengikut rentak pasaran, kemanapun arah market berjalan, anda
telah berada di posisi yang benar, jadi anda tinggal melihat keuntungan
anda bergerak dari 2 digit ke 3 digit.

Inilah tahap puncak bagi seorang trader, inilah tahap Utopia/Optim,
anda telah menguasai emosi anda dan kini anda trading dengan account
yang terus membesar setiap hari dari keuntungan kumulatif yang anda
peroleh.

Anda akan jadi bintang di bidang trading, dan orang sekeliling anda
akan mendengarkan apa yang anda katakan, anda faham dengan pertanyaan
mereka, kerana anda pernah berada diposisi mereka suatu masa dahulu.
Anda akan memberikan saranan bagi mereka, namun anda tahu bahwa
kebanyakan dari mereka tidak akan mendengarkannya karena mereka masih
trader Tahap 1.

Anda tidak akan mempunyai masalah kewangan lagi, anda mampu membeli
semua benda yang tersedia untuk dijual, anda mampu membeli sebuah pulau
dan trading disana asalkan ada jaringan internet, anda mampu pindah ke
hotel 5 bintang, dan menjadi penghuni tetap disana.

Anda mempunyai penghasilan seperti seorang superstar, anda mampu
membuat buku sendiri, anda mampu trading dengan margin yang tanpa
batas, dan account anda akan berlipat-ganda dari account awal.

Jangka masa untuk sampai ke tahap ini adakalanya bertahun-tahun lamanya. Namum sebenarnya bergantung kepada trader itu sendiri.

Hanya 3% trader yang mampu mencapai tahap ini.

Sekarang anda mampu dengan bangga berkata:

” SAYA SEORANG TRADER “

A confession.

Sometimes I use Bing.com.

Stop looking at me that way. I said I “use” Bing.com. I didn’t say I enjoy it! In fact, I “use” Bing.com when I’m shopping online and want to get the best price. Bing has a pretty cool shopping engine and I can get up to 10% cashback with its cashback program.

See? I use Bing.com.

The problem is, that use does not result in me using the search engine for any other task. And that is the issue I see with rumors that Bing is willing to pay News Corp and other news organizations to provide their content exclusively to the Microsoft search engine. The FT reports:

Microsoft has had discussions with News Corp over a plan that would involve the media company being paid to “de-index” its news websites from Google, setting the scene for a search engine battle that could offer a ray of light to the newspaper industry.

OK, so let’s say this deal comes together–which I really doubt–but let’s say it does. What will happen? I, and many others, will know that in order to read an article on the Wall Street Journal, we have to go to Bing.com and not Google. We conduct our search, read the article, then decide to keep Bing as our default search engine…go right back to using Google!

While Bing does need to get some exclusives like this, I just don’t see them being enough to fully switch the masses away from Google. If I know that my favorite bread is only available at Trader Joe’s, I’ll occasionally buy my bread there. The rest of the grocery shopping will be done at Harris Teeter…technically by my wife, but you get the idea.

What do you think? Will deals like this convince you to switch to Bing? Forget you–you’re smart–will it convince the average search user to switch?

Social Media Monitoring in Just 60-Seconds. Guaranteed!

I can take no credit for this piece (I wish I could) as it was written by another trader (it had to be as only a trader would recognise the journey). If anyone knows who was the original author then I’ll be happy to provide the necesarry credit.

 Anyway this is a great piece that sums up the journey from complete beginner to Competent Forex Trader.  The question is: where are you on the journey?

Step One: Unconscious Incompetence.

This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. You know that it’s a good way of making money because you’ve heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy – after all, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down – what’s the big secret to that then – let’s get cracking!

Unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven’t got the first clue about what you’re trying to do. You take lots of trades and lots of risks. When you enter a trade it turns against you so you reverse and it turns again … and again, and again.

You try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you’ll get away with it but more often than not you will come away scathed and bruised You are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading.
This step can last for a week or two of trading but the market is usually swift and you move on.

Step Two – Conscious Incompetence

Step two is where you realise that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realise that you are an incompetent trader – you don’t have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit.

You now set about buying systems and e-books galore, read websites based everywhere from USA to the Ukraine and begin your search for the Holy Grail. During this time you will be a system nomad – you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. Every time you come upon a new indicator you’ll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference.

You will test out automated systems on Metatrader, you’ll play with moving averages, Fibonacci lines, support & resistance, Pivots, Fractals, Divergence, DMI, ADX, and a hundred other things all in the vein hope that your ‘magic system’ starts today. You’ll be a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and you’ll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right.

You’ll go into the live chat room and see other traders making pips and you want to know why it’s not you – you’ll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You’ll then reach the point where you think all the ones who are calling pips after pips are liars – they can’t be making that amount because you’ve studied and you don’t make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. But they’re in there day after day and their account just grows whilst yours falls.

You will be like a teenager – the traders that make money will freely give you advice but you’re stubborn and think that you know best – you take no notice and overtrade your account even though everyone says you are mad to – but you know better. You’ll consider following the calls that others make but even then it won’t work so you try paying for signals from someone else – they don’t work for you either.

This step can last ages and ages – in fact in reality talking with other traders as well as personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year. This is also the step when you are most likely to give up through sheer frustration.

Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You’ve probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times.

Step Three – The Eureka Moment

Towards the end of stage two you begin to realise that it’s not the system that is making the difference. You realise that it’s actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right. You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment.

The eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realise that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 minutes. You start to work just one system that you mould to your own way of trading, you’re starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold.

You start to take every trade that your ‘edge’ shows has a good probability of winning with. When the trade turns bad you don’t get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn’t possibly predict it it isn’t your fault – as soon as you realise that the trade is bad you close it. The next trade will have higher odds of success because you know your system works.

You have realised in an instant that the trading game is about one thing – consistency of your ‘edge’ and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know the probabilities stack in your favour.

You learn about proper money management and leverage – risk of account etc – and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile. You weren’t ready then, but you are now. The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the market.

Step Four – Conscious Competence

You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it loses and when you’re on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account

You are now at a point where you break even most of the time – day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 pips and weeks where you lose 100 pips – generally you are breaking even and not losing money. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders as you chat the day away. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently.

You’ll start the day on a 20 pip win, take a 35 pip loss and have no feelings that you’ve given those pips back because you know that it will come back again. You will now begin to make consistent pips week in and week out 25 pips one week, 50 the next and so on.

This lasts about 6 months

Step Five – Unconscious Competence

Now we’re cooking – just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade – you do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 100 pips in a day is becoming quite normal to you. This is trading utopia – you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account.

You’re a star in the trading chat room and people listen to what you say. You recognise yourself in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile because they’re teenagers – some of them will get to where you are – some will do it fast and others will be slower – literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will.

Trading is no longer exciting – in fact it’s probably boring you to bits – like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job – it gets boring – you’re doing your job and that’s that.

You can now say with your head held high “I’m a Forex Trader”.

Monday morning and setting up for my day and week.  Of the four options for me from my morning Relative Strength Analysis I like the look of GBPCHF short.

I liked the fact that there was CHF strength across the board and that there was a nice Descending triangle setting up. Also the lower line of support was lined up with S3, if that broke I felt this would be a ‘moo’ trade. Quite simply I’d keep selling till the cows come home. (I appreciate that pivot levels can be skewed on Mondays based upon how your charting package works out the levels but in this case there was enough price action / candles respecting the level to give me confidence).

My order was set to go short at 1.6718 ( 2 points below the low) with a catastrophe stop at 1.6760 ( quite wide for me) but I was happy that I would kill the trade far before that should it not go my way.

So the trap was set….but would it be sprung?  As you can see from the MACD there was divergence building so I was not holding my breath.

As you can see in the view above price did breakout……but it blew north which invalidated my trade idea. I removed my order and went back to looking at the markets.

Does that mean this was a bad trade?  Far from it.

Most Private Retail Traders are killed by a mix of over-trading and over-leveraging.  Amateurs love to be involved in ‘Trading’ – the buying and selling, the exposure to the market, the collection of profits and losses (mostly losses).  But the only people who make money from ‘Trading’ are the brokers.

I prefer to be a ‘Profit Planner’ and set traps for my trade ideas.  Should price enter my ambush then the trap is sprung and my trade plan is live.  Should price not do what I believe it will do then so be it. I remove the trap and go looking for other possible ambush opportunities.  I certainly don’t just jump on board the market at the first sign of movement!  The problem is most people find my style of trading boring, but that’s ok.  I know that having the patience and discipline to plan my trade and trade my plan is what sets me apart from the 95% of losers in Forex trading.

Onwards and upwards.

I just wanted to point readers in the direction of this interview with City Girl on the UCL careers service blog, where she argues that contrary to stereotype, discrimination is less likely to be a problem for a trader as everyone is judged simply on the bottom line figures. Trading is a meritocracy with clearly defined results that are hard to argue with. It is an interesting read, with some top trading tips.

There is more from Barbara Stcherbatcheff on her website, in this article ‘Trading – no job for a nice girl?‘ where she tackles some myths about the culture of trading, and ‘Where are all the Citygirls?‘ which I also recommend.

What would put you off from a career as a trader? Is it the hours, the culture, or a perceived lack of equal opportunities?

La chemise financière est une chemise en général unie dont le col et les manchettes sont blancs.

Ce look nous vient de l’époque où les cols étaient détachables de la chemise. Il était alors difficile de trouver le col assorti à une chemise à rayures, le col blanc était donc le compromis idéal.

Popularisé par le film « Wall Street » avec Michael Douglas, ce style est aujourd’hui associé au monde de la finance, notamment depuis que les traders l’ont adopté en masse dans les années 80.

Depuis quelques temps, la chemise financière fait son grand retour pour une allure chic et tendance.

Quelques conseils :

 Si vous souhaitez porter la chemise financière avec un costume, nous vous conseillons de choisir une cravate sobre dans les tons de la chemise.

Pour vos rendez-vous informels, vous pouvez la porter avec un simple blazer pour un look élégant et tendance.

Le « nouveau style financier » se veut plus décontracté  que son précurseur, vous pouvez donc le porter également avec un Jean et des chaussures de ville. (Décontracté ne signifiant pas négligé).

Vous pouvez commander une chemise financière en ligne en choisissant l’option « col et poignets blancs ». Ce style est initialement réservé aux cols classiques toutefois vous pouvez l’associer à un col mao.

Since the open on Sunday evening the trend on the 5 min chart of EURUSD was up and with a consolidation forming at the highs this would be my first trade of the week.

As per my rules, waited for a close above the line of resistance for entry. On the 7am candle this happen and at the open of the next candle went long EURUSD.  Straight away the price pulled back inside the consolidation giving the impression of a false breakout. But as it turned out this candle ended up being a small inside candle and if you had missed the first entry then a break of this candle to the upside would have giving up another opportunity to get into this trade.

A fellow trader calls this set up an SBL which stands for short bar long. With a very tight stop this strategy can be used to grab an entry into a strong up trend and bank some good profit on the way. What this setup is looking for is a pause in the price action, usually after a large candle you will find some selling pressure as traders take profit before price continues on in the direction of the trend.

But back to this morning’s trade, the price hits the target level and the stop is trailed up, which got hit and the trade closed for 14 pips of profit.

Learning Points

1: The trend is your friend, always look for a reason for entry in the direction of the trend.

2: In a trending market, if you miss the first entry do not go chasing the trade there will be another opportunity along later.

Quote of the day from Paul Tudor Jones.

“I’m always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don’t focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have”

Home, home on the rage
Where the turtles gallop and graze
Where seldom is heard an un-turtle-y word
And shellers are non-physical all day!

That’s right, our latest trader item is over 50% complete, but instead of the normal clue, Grim and I decided to just flat-out tell you what the item is, and we’re extremely excited about it.  This item will be something that allows all of your turtles to become non-physical and stay within a certain radius.  This will make it so that they will not create ANY collisions, and will also make it extremely easy to have “free-range” turtles.  This also means that they won’t stay within enclosure walls unless their range stays within the enclosure, which is why this is something that will be completely optional.

This is such an important thing, though, that Grim and I have decided that this should be free for everyone and not cost any points.  What will the lottery winners get this time then, you may ask?  Each of our five lottery winners will get TWO boxes of hatchless food, valued at L$2900.

While the home item will be distributed as an item, Grim and I definitely hope that people take the script and make turtle habitats with the script in it that are pre-made non-physical enclosures for peoples’ turtles.  There will be more details about the actual usage of the item coming soon.

Following from my late post last night the Aussie trade was executed this morning short at 0.9200 that big round number I was talking about.

The MACD divergence and price conspired nicely in my favour to deliver the goods.

I only needed a 20 pip stop loss and guess what……………………………I added to it half way down on the little pull back on the 15 minute chart.

It’s strange the way trading works sometimes. I was chatting to Paul on Skype first thing this morning and we were both saying that the charts looked a bit offish.

In my head I was saying that I would probably only demo trade today as I really wasn’t feeling it.

But boy what a day it turned out to be USDCHF, EURUSD, EURGBP, GBPJPY (see Alan’s diary note), GBPCHF all fantastic trades – I didn’t take the cable trade as my hands were already full………………………and obviously I didn’t demo trade ….well durr!

Poor old US traders were left with Europe’s sloppy seconds to trade.

Lessons learnt:

Don’t always judge your charts by the first few bars – expect the unexpected and sometimes what looks like a mess can develop into your idea of trading heaven.

As frases mais célebres de Warren Buffett assumem simplicidade tamanha que parecem até triviais; são óbvias demais para um investidor com o mínimo de experiência. Mas não adianta criticar. É só o oráculo de Omaha abrir a boca que todos os olhos do mercado se arregalam. Melhor dizendo, todo mundo quer ouvir o que o mega-investidor tem a dizer.

Buffett iniciou sua carreira em 1954 com apenas cem dólares para investir. Depois de ser treinado por  Benjamin Graham, fundou uma parceria de investimento na qual era o administrador. Buffett dirigiu esta parceria até 1969, quando saiu do Mercado devido aos níveis extremamente altos da Bolsa. Em 1965, comprou uma firma com problemas financeiros no setor têxtil chamada Berkshire Hathaway, que viria a se tornar a holding de seus negócios.

É considerado um lenda viva no campo dos investimentos e seguido por milhares de investidores. Pauta sua estratégia de investimento na simplicidade. Para ele ações não são simples pedaços de papel. Representam uma participação em um negócio. Desta forma, quando analisando um investimento, pensa como dono do negócio.

Defende que só se deve envolver em negócios (empresas) que são fáceis de entender e fáceis de administrar, ignorando a flutuação do mercado, já que só compra empresas que considera barata.

Uma vez feito o investimento, só desfaça se ocorrerem as seguintes situações:

• Se o valor da companhia não está crescendo em uma taxa satisfatória;
• Se o valor de mercado ultrapassar significativamente o valor intrínseco;
• Quando você precisar de dinheiro para investir em outra companhia que é ainda mais atrativa sob a ótica da diferença do valor intrínseco e o preço do mercado.

Frases Celebres:

“Regra número Um: Nunca perca dinheiro. Regra número Dois: Nunca se esqueça da regra número Um”.

“Eu prefiro compra um excelente negócio por um preço razoável do que comprar um negócio razoável por um excelente preço”.

“Nunca invista naquilo que você não entende”.

Gilberto Caray