Jean Claude Trichet, presidente della Bce, lancia segnali di ottimismo.

“Le cifre della crescita – ha detto Trichet – confermano che siamo veramente usciti dal periodo di caduta libera che ha segnato i sei mesi successivi al crollo di Lehman.

In un intervista su “Le Monde, il numero uno della Banca centrale europea ha rimarcato come il patto di stabilità va rigidamente rispettato anche in tempi di crisi e i conti pubblici vanno risanati al più tardi entro il 2011.

di questo sito, vogliate cortesemente consultare il .

Fonte:
http://www.finanzaonline.com/notizie/news.php?id={892960BF-BD0E-4225-959D-CC4F8D390AA7}

It is becoming apparent that as the end of the year approaches market players are squaring FX positions rather than putting new risk on. The USD has failed to show any sign of sustaining a recovery over recent weeks but may be benefiting from short covering into year end, with the USD index pivoting around the 75.00 level. Supportive comments from US officials and international calls for the US to act to prevent the currency from being debased may also be helping on the margin.

Nonetheless, the USD’s outlook is still mired by a combination of both cyclical and structural concerns and it will fail to recover on a sustainable basis until it loses the mantle of preferred funding currency. This is unlikely to happen soon given the repeated commitment by the Fed to keep interest rates low for long as repeated this week by Fed Chairman Bernanke.

USD/JPY continues to gyrate around the 89-90 level and is showing little inclination to move either side though a run of positive economic surprises and the move in interest rate differentials (versus US) suggest that the JPY will trade on the firmer side of 90 over the short term; USD/JPY has been the most highly correlated currency pair with interest rate differentials over the past month. JPY speculative positioning is not particularly onerous at present, suggesting some room for an increase in JPY positioning.

The EUR continues to struggle to make any headway and is likely not being helped by European policy makers’ attempts to talk the USD higher. ECB President Trichet repeated his comments that a strong USD is in the world’s best interest though by now such comments are nothing new. It will need a clear break above 1.5061 in EUR/USD to renew the uptrend in the currency. For now, a reported 1.48-1.51 option expiring on Friday suggests range trading, with EUR/USD looking heavy on the top side.

GBP is set to remain firm despite the slightly dovish November MPC minutes. GBP looks resilient against the EUR against which it has benefited from a favourable move in interest rate differentials as a well as an adjustment in positioning where the market has decreased its GBP short positions and also decreased EUR long positions. EUR/GBP has been leading the way, and like USD/JPY this currency pair has become increasingly correlated with interest rate differentials, which has played positively for GBP. This has helped it to pivot around the 200 day moving average around 0.8871, a level that will prove important to determine further downside potential in EUR/GBP.

L’economia mondiale ha “evitato una depressione molto, molto minacciosa” ma le misure assunte dalle autorita’ finanziarie internazionali hanno prodotto una “stabilizzazione” e le statistiche recenti confermano “la fine della caduta libera”.

Lo ha detto il presidente della Banca centrale europea, Jean-Claude Trichet, al termine delle riunioni alla Banca dei regolamenti internazionali.

Tuttavia, ha aggiunto Trichet, “nelle attuali circostanze, restano molti rischi”; per questa ragione “resta essenziale la fiducia, e le banche centrali sono appunto impegnate a consolidarla”.

Fonte:
http://www.milanofinanza.it/news/dettaglio_news.asp?id=200911091502589900&chkAgenzie=TMFI

We pick up the narrative on Monday, March 10, 2008, click here for earlier post.

On Friday prior, JPM Chase came to an agreement on a 28-day loan for Bear Stearns and you will see in the prior post how involved Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was in the deal.

So back to Monday the 10th, Paulson spends most of the morning on the phone with Keith Hennessey who was Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the U.S. National Economic Council.

Later that morning the phone log shows four calls to Jerry Corrigan, former President of the NY Fed, but at this time was Managing Director in the office of the Chairman for Goldman Sachs and later in 2008 became chairman of Goldman Sachs holding company GS Bank.

He then has lunch at the White House with presidential staff members.

At 5pm Paulson convenes the first meeting of the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets, AKA Plunge Protection Team.

On Tuesday the 11th Paulson redacted the first two hours of his day, which were out of the office. He then spoke with Fed chief Ben Bernanke and White House’s Hennessey and SEC chief Chris Cox.

After the call to Cox, Paulson conducts a typical schedule, but is in constant contact with Tim Geithner and White House aides. At the end of the day he meets with an assistant Chinese finance minister.

On March 12^th, which is the alleged date of the closed session of the House. This act was a rarity for the people’s house. According to the House of Representatives’ own historic record this was only the fourth time since 1830 that the House closed the floor allowing only its members and select aides to hear the debate.

The secretive discussion was said to be focused on clandestine monitoring efforts to combat terrorism. There’s other chatter that the debate was centered on a financial destruction based on the fall of Bear Stearns, which I believe was considered a fait accompli by Paulson already.

Before the markets opened on the 12^th the Plunge Protection Team had already met for 45 minutes. Paulson alerts the White House through Hennessey, who is the equivalent to Larry Summers in the Obama administration, and Joel Kaplan, Deputy Chief of Staff and Josh Bolton his boss.

He then has a White House Lunch with what’s described as attended by  “Economic Principals.” Paulson then has a call into Geithner, who could be the conduit to Wall Street on the anticipated House session.

Paulson is the in the Oval Office with the President for an hour, which is an extraordinary amount of time with the President judging from all the other meetings the Treasury Secretary’s schedule has listed as POTUS meetings.

Paulson ends his day with a call to White House Deputy press officer Tony Fratto and calls Sen. Harry Reid from his home.

Thursday, March 13 Paulson starts his day with a 6am call to the EU’s Trichet, which again is odd from the standpoint that Trichet is Bernanke’s peer not Paulson.

The next two hours are redacted so it’s difficult to decipher his moves. After his blackout Paulson continues his dialog with the White House through Kaplan, Bolton.

Paulson then has a 30-minute call with the President.

During the day Paulson had press interviews with CNBC, Washington Post and New York Times. None of these interviews uncovered any of the information cited here. However there is a call late in the day to Bill Keller, editor of the Times. Not sure if this was Paulson doing damage control to squelch any leaks.

Friday, March 14^th was the fateful day for Bear Stearns. Paulson begins the day with a 5:30am conference call with Geithner from his home. Although it is labeled as a conference call no other participants are listed.

Paulson then takes a call from the President at his home at 6:30am. Between this call and the market open Paulson speaks with White House aides three times, Geithner four times including a second conference call of the morning with no other participants listed again and SEC chief Cox.

Once the market opens Paulson raises the curtain on his M&A window and begins to call all of Wall St. In order: Ken Lewis, BofA; Bob Rubin, former Treasury Secretary, Citi director; Lehman’s Dick Fuld; Tim Geithner; Merrill’s John Thain; Goldman’s Lloyd Blankfein; Morgan’s John Mack and then after another Geithner call Paulson calls JPM’s Jamie Dimon.

Most likely he told Dimon no one on the Street or at the White House had the appetite to help Bear Stearns and that JPM had to go it alone with no backstop.

But the hits keep on coming that day.

After Dimon, Paulson speaks with Trichet of the EU and someone else who is redacted. He then spends an hour with Geithner before calling Dimon again. When he hangs up with Dimon, he takes a call from President Bush.

After Paulson hangs up with President Bush he then calls Geithner to work on a game plan before the both of them call Bear’s Alan Schwartz to break the news that Dimon and JPM were pulling the rug out from under him and that the administration was not going to bail out the firm.

Then we had the fire sale over the weekend to JPM and the rest is history.

For more on Wall and Washington and the economy see: http://mgray12.wordpress.com

The market mood has definitely soured and risk appetite has faltered.  This is good for the USD but bad for relatively high yielding/commodity risk trades. The USD is set to retain a firm tone over the near term even if is temporary, which I believe it is.  

Whether it’s profit taking on crowded risk trades, a lot of good news having already been priced in, fears that other countries will follow Brazil’s example of taxing capital inflows to dampen currency strength, or a reaction to weaker economic data, it is clear that there are many reasons to be cautious. 

It is also unlikely to be coincidental that the rise in risk aversion and drop in equity markets is happening at a time when many central banks are contemplating exit strategies and when many investors are pondering the timing of interest rates hikes globally following the moves by Australia and Israel. 

One of the reasons for the worsening in market mood is that some parts of the global economy may not be ready for rate hikes.  Certainly there is little chance of a US rate hike on the horizon and perhaps not until 2011 given the prospects of a sub par economic recovery.  This projection was given support by the surprise drop in US consumer confidence in October.

It is not just the US that is unlikely to see a quick reversal in monetary policy.  As indicated by the bigger than expected decline in annual M3 money supply growth in the eurozone, which hit its lowest level since the series began in 1980, as well as the drop in bank loans to the private sector, the ECB will be in no hurry to wind down its non-standard monetary policy measures. 

The chances of any shift in policy at next week’s ECB meeting are minimal, with the ECB’s cautious stance emboldened by the subdued money supply and credit data.  As long as EUR/USD remains below 1.50 ECB President Trichet is also unlikely to step up his rhetoric on the strength of the EUR.  

Although the major economies of US, Eurozone, Japan and UK are likely to maintain current policies for a long while yet, the stance is not shared elsewhere.  The Reserve Bank of India did not raise interest rates following its meeting this week but edged in this direction by requiring banks to buy more T-bills. Other central banks in the region are set to move in this direction.

In terms of developed economies, Norway was the latest to join the club hiking rates by 25bps and adding to the growing list of countries starting the process of policy normalisation.   Australia is set to hike rates again at next week’s meeting although a 50bps hike looks unlikely, with a 25bps move more likely. 

It seemed inevitable and finally after flirting with the 1.50 level, EUR/USD managed to break through although there seems to be little momentum in the move, with the currency pair dipping back below 1.50 in the Asian trading session. Contrary to expectations the break above 1.50 did not lead to a sharp stop loss driven move higher. 

Even the break through 1.50 only provoked a limited reaction in the FX options market where implied EUR/USD volatility only moved slightly higher. In fact despite the warnings by ECB President Trichet about “excessive currency volatility” FX options volatility for most currency pairs has been on a downward trajectory over the past few months, implying that the move in EUR/USD and the USD itself has been quite orderly. 

Trichet’s warning is more likely a veiled threat on the level of EUR/USD rather than its volatility, unless of course the ECB chief is seeing something that the FX options market is not. Assuming that EUR/USD closes above 1.50 this week it technically has plenty of open ground on the run up to the record high of 1.6038 hit in July 2008 but there will also be plenty of official resistance to limit its appreciation. Such resistance is limited to rhetoric but it will not be long before markets begin discussing the prospects of actual FX intervention.  

Perhaps the reason that EUR/USD did not move sharply higher following the break of 1.50 was the late sell off in US stocks on Wednesday which helped to fuel some USD short covering.  The USD index is holding just above the 75.00 level but it’s not a big stretch from here to move down to the March 2008 low around 70.698, with the overall tone of broad USD weakness remaining intact and ongoing. 

GBP was helped by relief that the minutes of the BoE meeting showed no inclination to increase the level of quantitative easing despite the ongoing debate within the MPC.   The minutes even sounded slightly upbeat about economic prospects. GBP/USD hit a high of 1.6638 in the wake of these developments due in large part to more short covering whilst EUR/GBP briefly dipped below 0.90.  GBP/USD may find it tough going to make much headway above 1.66 as has been the case over recent months, with strong resistance seen around 1.6661.

So there is nowhere to go for the euro against the USD but up. 14800 has just been touched and 14840 is next. I’ll have to reassess my trade at that point. Do I take profits and buy again on dips, or do I hang on for 149xx? I’m not saying the trade is a sure thing. The snap-back from 14800 was pretty discouraging and it looks like the bumpy ride will continue. (Currently underwater and gurgling if I can mix my metaphors.) But it seems the more Trichet talks about a strong dollar, the more traders send the pair higher. The downside of this equation is this rhetoric is pretty standard.

Looking for a EURCHF short from 15190 and as a result, have missed two very good short term opportunities between 15180 and 15160. This pair is becoming increasingly difficult to gauge, but has produced some good trades for me lately so I’ll keep an eye on it.

And do I short GBPUSD from 16100? I really don’t like trading Cable because I always get my arse handed to me. Maybe I’ll go in light. Or maybe I’ll just sit in front of the screens with glazed eyes while the rest of you make all the money.

The US dollar appears to be making a tentative recovery of sorts at least when taking a look at the performance of the US dollar index.  Much of this can be attributable to a softer tone to equities. The S&P 500 registered its biggest back to back quarterly rally since 1975 over Q3 and either through profit taking or renewed economic doubts, stocks may be in for shakier ground into Q4. 

This increase in equity pressure/risk aversion is being triggered by weaker data. Since the Fed FOMC on 24th September the run of US data has generally disappointed expectations; in addition to the ISM survey, existing and new home sales, durable goods orders, consumer confidence and ADP jobs data all failed to match forecasts.   This list was joined by the September jobs data which revealed a bigger than expected 263k drop in payrolls.  Consequently doubts about the pace of recovery have intensified as markets face up to a reality check.

The dollar’s firmer tone is not just being helped by weaker stocks but also by plenty of official speakers discussing currency moves. Although this is potentially a dangerous game considering the recent turnaround in Japanese official comments on the Japanese yen the net effect is to support the dollar.  In particular, Treasury Secretary Geithner stressed the importance of a strong dollar, whilst European officials including Trichet, Almunia and Junker appear to have become more concerned with the strength of the euro. 

In the current environment such comments will contribute to putting further pressure on the euro which in any case has lagged the strengthening in other currencies against the dollar over recent months.   Although ECB President Trichet highlighted “excess volatility” in his comments about currencies overnight implied FX volatility is actually relatively low having dropped significantly over recent months.  The real reason for European official FX concerns is quite simply the fact that the eurozone remains highly export dependent and that recovery will be slower the stronger the euro becomes.  

It’s not just G10 officials that are becoming concerned about currency strength against the dollar as Asian central banks have not only been jawboning but also intervening to prevent their currencies from strengthening against the dollar.   A firmer dollar tone is likely to put Asian currencies on the back foot helping to alleviate some of the upward pressure over the short term but the overall direction for Asian FX is still upwards.

Il Papa a Brno: “Senza Dio assurdità della Storia.” Con Dio, episodio sadico di Fantasilandia.

Afghanistan: poliziotti vendono armi ai Talebani. E niente ricevuta!

Trichet: “Economia italiana può crescere molto di più. Procuratele tumore all’ipofisi.”

Svizzera, arrestato Roman Polanski; accusa di stupro del ‘77? No, Luna di Fiele del ‘92.

EZB will bei Inflationsgefahr aus dem Krisenmodus aussteigen

“Noch ist nicht die Zeit gekommen, aber ich möchte es ganz klar machen, dass wir eine Ausstiegsstrategie haben und dass wir diese auch umsetzen werden, wenn der richtige Zeitpunkt gekommen ist”, sagte Trichet. Viele von der EZB ergriffenen Maßnahmen, etwa bei der freigiebigen Versorgung des Bankensystems mit billigem Geld würden weitgehend ohne Zutun der EZB einfach auslaufen, wenn sie nicht verlängert würden.

Quelle: Reuters

Ist das nicht beruhigend? Da hat die EZB ja einen sehr weisen Mann an der Spitze der offensichtlich genau weiss, was er tut! Liebe Bürger geht alle brav schlafen, Herr Trichet wird es schon richten.
Als in der Schule erklärt wurde, dass Geld eigentlich ein Tauschmittel ist, hatte Herr Trichet wohl einen Fensterplatz oder litt gerade an einer Grippe. Macht ja nichts. Es geht ja nur um die massivste Papiergeldentwertung (anderes Wort für Inflation) die es je gab, welche gerade jetzt in vollem Gang ist.

I must admit it has been quite tough to get a handle on the sharp moves in markets over recent days. Market sentiment shifted from positive to negative and back again in a matter of hours, meaning that anyone wanting to put on a long term trading position has had to have had a significant risk tolerance to hold onto their positions.

Attention was focused squarely on Chinese stocks last week but market fears over tighter regulation eased as the week progressed. Market sentiment was helped by strong existing home sales data in the US, continuing the run of better than forecast US economic data releases. Globally data releases mirrored this tone.

A cautiously upbeat tone from central bankers at the Jackson Hole symposium sets up a positive backdrop for markets. Although Fed Chairman Bernanke noted that the rebound in growth was likely to be slow and ECB President Trichet talked about a “bumpy road ahead” the overall tone was positive.

Importantly there was no indication that a reversal in monetary policy was in sight, with the Fed’s Kohn even indicating that there was no inconsistency between the Fed maintaining low rates for an “extended period” and keeping inflation low. The comments should help to ensure that markets do not misinterpret the signs of recovery as a cue to begin hiking interest rates.

This week’s data slate will maintain the run of good news. However, there are a few risks. Consensus forecasts look for US consumer confidence to improve in August but the weak labour market situation may hold some downside risks for the Conference Board measure of confidence just as it did for the Michigan reading.

US durable goods orders are set to bounce back and new home sales are likely to echo at least some of the gains in existing home sales last week. In the eurozone, attention will focus on the August German IFO survey and this release is likely to mirror the gains in the PMI, with a healthy gain in the headline reading expected.

Risk trades continue will be favoured after overcoming last week’s setbacks keeping the USD under downward pressure but within ranges and risk currencies including AUD, NZD, CAD and NOK under upward pressure. The USD index is verging on testing its 5th August low of 77.428, whist the JPY is also weaker though its moves may be more limited ahead of upcoming elections.

The IMM report shows that speculative investors have cut pared back USD short positions further, but the shift in positioning was relatively small from the previous week, with net aggregate USD short positions at -94.8k contracts compared to -96.1 in the previous week. Notable shifts in positioning over the week include a cut back in net EUR long positions to their lowest level since the week of 5th May 2009.

Commodity currencies suffered some pullback in net long positioning too with speculative AUD and NZD contracts being cut although net CAD long positions did increase slightly. Given the resumption in risk appetite into this week it seems highly likely that positioning will reverse and net USD short positions will increase.

Abbiamo raggiunto il fondo della recessione, l’economia si sta riprendendo, non sono necessari ulteriori stimoli da parte delle banche centrali, questo il coro che proveniva dal Club sempre più numeroso degli inguaribili ottimisti. Perciò non erano attesi nuovi ritocchi dei tassi da parte di Bank of England e della Banca Centrale Europea nelle riunioni dei rispettivi board. E infatti i tassi che già sono molto prossimi allo zero sono rimasti invariati.

Ma che ti fa la Banca d’Inghilterra nella medesima riunione, a dispetto dei tanto sbandierati segni di ripresa dopo un lungo anno di recessione? Decide di iniettare altri 50 miliardi di sterline (circa 62 miliardi in euro) di denaro fresco acquistando ancora bond. Già perchè fino a Luglio aveva già inondato il mercato di denaro fresco per circa 125 miliardi di sterline e nessuno si aspettava questa ulteriore manovra di quantitative easing.

Evidentemente i bagliori di ripresa sono lucciole scambiate per lanterne e la situazione è molto meno rosea di quanto le borse facciano credere. La BOE resta preoccupata sullo stato del sistema bancario, e non è convinta che una ripresa sarà forte abbastanza da assicurare che l’obbiettivo di un tasso d’inflazione al 2% possa essere raggiunto senza ulteriori stimoli. E’ la paura di quella parola innominabile che richiama alla mente prospettive giapponesi, deflazione.

“La necessità per le banche di continuare a rimettere in sesto i propri bilanci sta probabilmente restringendo la disponibilità di credito e la precedente caduta di valore degli asset e gli alti livelli del debito potrebbero pesare sugli impieghi” dichiara la BOE nel comunicato stampa finale dimostrando di essere meno ottimista di molti ottimisti di professione.

A dispetto di tanti risultati migliori delle attese l’economia continua a navigare con forti venti contrari e siamo ancora molto lontani da una solida ripresa. Il credito alle imprese resta ancora molto debole così come gli spread sui tassi sono elevati, creando una seria minaccia ad ogni prospettiva di ripresa economica.

Una conferma che non è stato ancora toccato il fondo è arrivata oggi dai dati di luglio delle vendite al dettaglio negli Stati Uniti (vedi tabella), con un calo, questa volta, molto peggiore delle attese. Domani sarà la volta dei dati sul mercato del lavoro con la disoccupazione che, benchè in crescita frenata, galoppa ormai al 10%. Che farà la borsa, festeggerà perchè nel mese di luglio le nuove domande di sussidi di disoccupazione sono state 540 mila invece delle 560 mila attese dagli analisti?

fonte: www.germanyandafrica.diplo.de

La ricetta per superare la recessione? Riattivare il circuito del credito alle aziende ed alle famiglie, congelato ormai da mesi. E dato che la ripresa  non arriverà fino al 2010, l’unica strada per resistere fino all’uscita dal tunnel è che le  banche accelerino i prestiti alle imprese ed alle famiglie.

Così il presidente della Bce, Jean Claude Trichet, ha tuonato nel corso del suo intervento a Monaco di Baviera la settimana scorsa. Ha anche lanciato un “richiamo” alle banche affinchè continuino ad erogare prestiti alle imprese ed alle famiglie “a tassi di interesse appropriati e con volumi adeguati”.

Al Presidente della Bce ha fatto eco il ministro delle finanze tedesco, Peer Steinbrueck, il quale ha inviato una lettera all’Associazione Bancaria del proprio Paese nella quale, in sintesi, afferma che si attende che le banche concedano concretamente credito alle imprese ed a condizioni vantaggiose, e premette che seguirà personalmente lo sviluppo dell’assegnazione del credito da qui a settembre (evidentemente i funzionari bancari tedeschi nel mese di agosto continuano a deliberare… mentre i nostri sono sotto l’ombrellone), dopodichè deciderà come intervenire non escludendo di poter applicare sanzioni alle banche “meno virtuose”.

Fatta questa premessa, mi soffermo brevemente sulla situazione italiana: mentre il credito alle famiglie per il momento tiene, quello alle imprese è decisamente in calo. Gli ultimi dati ufficiali (primo trimestre 2009) vedono una riduzione dei volumi degli accordati (ovvero i crediti concessi alle imprese) a livello di sistema bancario italiano. Se fosse possibile entrare più nel dettaglio, si vedrebbe come la riduzione dell’accordato sia molto più evidente per le pmi che non per la grande impresa, cosa doppiamente grave visto che il tessuto industriale italiano è basato proprio sulle piccole e medie imprese.

E qui nasce spontanea una considerazione: dato che abbiamo un sistema bancario che nel complesso si è dimostrato attentissimo ai problemi dell’economia ed alla crisi generalizzata che attraversa il Paese (e sono ovviamente ironico…), così attento che alla prima occasione capitata (abolizione cms, introduzione spese per la messa a disposizione della provvista) ha rifilato commissioni annue spropositate, (in alcuni casi fino al 6% annuo – ed anche Draghi ha dovuto “bacchettare” il Sistema) costringendo il Governo a ridurle per legge, fissando un tetto massimo allo 0,50% trimestrale, che possibilità abbiamo di riuscire a sfangarla anche questa volta? Chi interverrà per far sì che tutta la liquidità presente sull’interbancario (perchè adesso c’è…) venga utilizzata per dare ossigeno ad imprese e famiglie invece che restare depositata sui conti della Bce? Basterà la “moral suasion” che prima Draghi e poi Cardia hanno attuato? Serviranno ulteriori Decreti governativi? Non ho risposta a riguardo, e qui chiedo che venga aperto un dibattito.

Una cosa so per certo: il nostro sistema bancario deve vivere una riforma profonda, radicale, che lo faccia tornare “indietro” a quando la banca svolgeva realmente quel ruolo economico sociale di prestatore di denaro, di volano dell’economia. Quando i bilanci bancari si costruivano sul margine di interesse e gli stipendi dei manager non erano funzione esponenziale dei budget di prodotto, e gli sportellisti del comune di Ribolla non erano “costretti” a piazzare nel portafoglio del pensionato di turno titoli strutturati ad elevato valore aggiunto (sempre per il conto economico della filiale….)

Ma questa è un’altra storia, e ne parlerò in seguito.

Cesare Cavini – Cavini Consulting – Firenze

Finance – Stress-test sur les banques européennes – Evenements – Actualité Challenges.fr.

Gold (GC-FT928.60-12.70-1.35%) fell below $930 (U.S.) per ounce on Thursday.

U.S. dollar rose versus a basket of currencies after a larger than expected dip in U.S. non-farm payrolls, which prompted some buying of the currency as a haven from risk. The euro also extended losses against the dollar after European Central Bank chief Jean Claude Trichet said euro zone activity was likely to be weak for the rest of the year.

Spot gold fell to a low of $926.10 and was at $930.40 at 1319 GMT, versus $939.95 late in New York on Wednesday. “Today’s payrolls surprised most market expectations, and the dollar rose as a result,” said Pradeep Unni, senior analyst at Richcomm Global Services. “However, the data is not likely to have a long term impact on the (gold) market.” “The immediate slide in gold seems to be more because (of the) panic selling that got triggered from currency markets and stock markets,” he said. U.S. employers cut 467,000 jobs in June, far more than expected, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.5 per cent. The worse-than-expected data spurred safe-haven flows into the dollar, making gold pricier for holders of other currencies. Assets seen as higher-risk, such as equities and some currencies, slipped in the wake of the numbers. While gold is often seen as a safe haven asset, moves in the dollar are taking precedence as the metal’s main price driver.