Last April I demonstrated that changes in temperature precede changes in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Here I look at the increase in CO2 concentration more closely, and how it relates to atmospheric temperature and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

There is no doubt that CO2 concentration has been rising, certainly since 1959, and that isotopic analysis shows this is largely due to fossil fuel burning.

But there’s more to the story.

This is a graph of CO2 concentration for the past 5 years, 2007-2011.

Fig.1

Some points to note:

The regular seasonal wave shows fluctuations.

There is a marked slowdown in February and March 2008 (following the temperature drop in the previous year), and another blip in March 2009 (resulting from the drop in energy consumption in late 2008.)

There is another slowdown in February, March, and April 2011.

The difference between consecutive peaks, and between troughs, varies each year.

These inter-annual differences interest me.

Here is a graph of the inter-annual monthly differences- the difference between the same months in consecutive years, e.g. January 2010 and January 2011.

Fig. 2

2010 was a very good year for CO2 increase.

Note the huge slump in the rate of increase in April 2008, and the even bigger and longer slump around April 2011.  In fact, April 2011 had the lowest inter-annual difference since July 2000.

The recent State of the Climate report claims that “Global CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere increased from 2009 to 2011 at 2 ppm per year” which is correct- the concentration in December of each year has risen by 2ppm. This was entirely due to 2010 however- by December 2011 the annual mean rise in concentration was down to 1.8ppm. 2011 was a below average year for CO2 increase. The BOM and CSIRO failed to mention this, I notice!

By comparison, here’s the same inter-annual rate of change for 1997 to 2001:

Fig. 3

There’s no comparison, is there?

Here’s a graph (2007- 2011 again) showing the relationship between rate of change of temperature and rate of change of CO2.  The temperature change has been doubled, and brought up to the same scale as CO2 change (2 is average).

Fig. 4

Notice once again that rapid temperature change precedes CO2 change by a couple of months. However, other factors may be involved.  Notice mid-2009.

Let’s zoom out and look at the 25 years from 1987 to 2011- actually, these plots show data up to February 2012.

Fig 5.  Temperature change vs CO2

I have marked in the eruption of Pinatubo, and the El Nino event of 1997-1998.  CO2 change can still be seen lagging temperature change.

Now compare temperature change with SOI change. Note that SOI values are inverted.

Fig. 6 Temperature change vs SOI change

Note: temperature change clearly lags SOI change by many months.

It has long been known that there is a link between ENSO events and CO2 concentration.  So can we see a relationship between inter-annual change in SOI and CO2?

Fig. 7 SOI change vs CO2 change

There is at least 10 months lag between SOI and CO2 change.

Now, smoothing with 12 month means:

Fig. 8: CO2, UAH, SOI changes

Applying 10 months lag to the SOI and 4 months lag to temperature:

Fig. 9: lagged SOI and UAH:

A pretty good match. El Ninos cause rapid CO2 increase. La Ninas and volcanoes are associated with slower CO2 increase.

Removing UAH shows the closer relationship between SOI and CO2.  Here the 12 month mean of SOI change has been advanced 10 months.

Fig. 10

Notice that in strong ENSO events the inter-annual change in CO2 can vary by more than 2 ppm per year.

Fig. 11

The 12 month mean of raw SOI (scaled: /20, +2) shows El Ninos occurring nearly a year before CO2 increase; La Ninas have a weaker match.

Here are graphs of SOI vs CO2 since 1959:  There are gaps in the CO2 mean because of missing months of data, after which 12 month means cannot be calculated.

Fig. 12

Notice the same pattern: CO2 change lags SOI change by nearly a year.

Fig. 13: SOI change advanced 10 months. ENSO events are shown as well.

Notice the very close match.

We can conclude that:

• CO2 concentration is increasing, and the rate of increase has doubled from 1 to 2 ppm per year in the past 50 years
• There is seasonal fluctuation in concentration
• CO2 concentration responds not only to temperature change but also to changes in the La Nina- El Nino cycle, nearly a year later.

The ENSO cycles strongly influence changes in CO2 concentration- not enough to overwhelm it, but enough to double or halve the rate of increase. Much more study is needed.

Data used:

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/sco/soi/soiplaintext.html

Regina Hyatt, UAH Dean of Students, says the SafeRide program is meant as a safety net, not an excuse for students to be irresponsible.

“We want students to work within their peer groups to find a designated driver or go with people they feel comfortable with. It`s really for an emergency situation,” said Hyatt.

The SafeRide service runs from 11 p.m. to 3 a.m. Thursday through Saturday. The university has a contract with a local  cab company that will pick up students within a 10 mile radius of the school, as long as they show their student identification card.

Students can only use the program three times each semester.

The February UAH value is -0.12  making the running 12 month mean +0.14 +/- 0.1.  February SOI was 2.5- dropping quickly.

My predictions:

SOI values have dropped.  If we enter a new El Nino phase we can expect global 12 month mean temperatures to rise rapidly in the last part of 2012 and 2013.  If we remain in a neutral phase, 12 month mean temperatures should stay in the +0.1 to +0.2 range for the next 18 months.  A renewed La Nina will lead to mean temperatures dropping below 0.0.

Last month I tipped “for Queensland and New South Wales the next major enhancement of rain with upper level disturbance, an active monsoon, and a possible cyclone will occur from 26 February to mid-March.”

Again that was pretty much spot on, with heavy rain in SE Queensland (24-25 February and 4-5 March), and southern NSW and northern Victoria with major flooding of inland rivers.  Oddly, Queensland’s Central Coast, Central Highlands,  and Central and Southern Inland missed most of this rain, although between 24 – 28 February my gauge measured 455mm.  It looks like a drier year (than the last three!) coming up.  A tropical low dumped on the Sunshine Coast, and for a while was expected to develop into a cyclone, but it moved away and weakened.  However, the monsoon did not become more active, although plenty of rain fell north of Townsville.

Here are 3 weekly rainfall maps showing how this developed.

The monsoon has now retreated and conditions are hot and very humid north of Mackay.  Normal wet season storms and showers will continue, but to the south autumn has arrived with cooler, drier conditions.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation will next affect southern Queensland and NSW in the period 28 March – 11 April, although rain may not be as heavy.  The influence after this will move further south in early to mid-May, and after that bring normal winter rain to southern states, although some usually spills into Queensland.

I have changed my timings between weather enhancements to 30 to 45 days (from 35 to 49).

The January UAH value is -0.09  making the running 12 month mean +0.15 +/- 0.1.  January SOI was 9.4.

My predictions:

Last month I tipped “I expect the next major build up of heavy rain and possibly cyclones off the east coast around 22 January to mid February.  This is the usual time for the arrival of the Wet season in this part of Queensland- when school starts.”

That was pretty much spot on, with heavy rain in SE Queensland, Northern NSW, Central and Southern Inland Queensland and Inland NSW with major flooding of inland rivers.  Oddly, Queensland’s Central Coast missed most of this rain.  Cyclone Jasmine also developed but moved away from the coast.

Here are 3 weekly rainfall maps showing how this developed.

The monsoon has now retreated and conditions are hot, sunny, and very humid.  Normal wet season storms and showers will continue, but for Queensland and New South Wales the next major enhancement of rain with upper level disturbance, an active monsoon, and a possible cyclone will occur from 26 February to mid-March.  This may be followed by another disturbance in early to mid April, after which conditions should settle.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is supposed to affect mainly equatorial and tropical regions, so this pattern of upper level lows and monsoon advance may be due to some other factor; or else the MJO has far greater influence in La Nina periods.

As usual I used a carmine col-erase pencil, and brush pens.

The December UAH value is +0.13  making the running 12 month mean +0.15 +/- 0.1.  December SOI reached 23.

All through 2011 I watched my predictions get further and further away from the actual 12 month mean of UAH temperatures.  I decided to change two factors in my algorithm with startling results- the calculated 12 month mean temperatures are closer- much closer- at least for the last two years.   Here are my old figures and new calculations compared:

So we’ll see how we go this year!

Last month I tipped “the next major enhancement to weather with heavier rainfall should be in the last week of December to mid January”.   Two cyclones appeared and caused major flooding in the Northern Territory, plus a Christmas Day storm in Melbourne (probably not connected!) and heavy storms about the Queensland Central Coast, so a little earlier than I expected but not much.

Although there are extremes about right now (12 January) I expect the next major build up of heavy rain and possibly cyclones off the east coast around 22 January to mid February.  This is the usual time for the arrival of the Wet season in this part of Queensland- when school starts.

So here’s my plot of what global temperatures could be like over the next 11 years, excluding major volcanic eruptions or other unforseen factors.  These represent my long range predictions for 12 month running mean global tropospheric temperatures as recorded by UAH.  This is based on my analysis of the UAH record compared with the 120 month running mean of the Southern Oscillation Index with a lag of 11 years and the 12 month running mean of the SOI with a lag of 6 months.

The upper and lower limits are for the maximum and minimum historical values for the 12 month mean SOI (+23 and -23).   If the global 12 month means exceed either of the black lines for more than 2 years I would consider this prediction falsified.

I calculate as follows:

T(12)m,y = [(SOI(12) m-6, y) /9 + (SOI(120) m, y-11)] /12 + FF

where

T = 12 month running mean up to month m of year y of global atmospheric temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius

SOI = running mean of inverted SOI values for (12) or (120) months

FF = fine-tuning factor, which for long term purposes can be assumed to be +/- 0.1.

(FF is some factor I am unable to identify but may be related to PDO, aerosol concentrations, or maybe even CO2!)

Here is a plot of the calculated means vs actual UAH 12 month means since 1979.

Note there is great variability.  Far from falsifying my hypothesis, I consider that this clearly shows the effect of volcanic eruptions.  The correlation between my calculated and actual values for 12 month mean UAH from January 1998 (the year of the big El Nino) to December 2011 is 0.7348, and from 1979-2011 is 0.6898.

I also include graphs showing the contribution of various factors.

12 month running mean of SOI values is obviously related to UAH, but other factors are involved.

Running 120 month mean of SOI since 1876- note the big jump since 1976.  What if we advanced it by 11 years and combined it with the 12 month mean.

Here’s the calculated values 1979-2011.

I expect that I will need to rework my calculations in the light of future data.  In particular, I’m sure that the long term values have varying influence  which is why there is variation.  These are still early days.

Learn from 2011 An important step on your journey towards completing a degree—graduate or undergraduate—is to assess the past year. Learn how to scrutinize yourself in a constructive manner. Hopefully, you were taking some notes on your personal journey during 2011! Do not just stop at your thoughts but ask your advisor or mentor to evaluate your performance in 2011.

Evaluate your Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) that will enable you to reach your goals.  Maximize your strengths and identify and mitigate weakness in your portfolio. Seek out opportunities that may be available for 2012 for career development. Be careful with threats and distractions that may be present and make sure that they do not derail you. Take responsibility for the things that did not go well and purpose to convert your weaknesses into strengths. Set concrete goals (example: finishing a research paper or presenting your work in a conference). Remember that you need to be proactive in your academic and work life.

Involve yourself now It is a great time to involve yourself in conferences and student activities. There are plenty of opportunities available for students to excel in courses and in research. There are numerous travel scholarship opportunities to begin networking.  If you are part of a team, either involve yourself in ongoing activities or start something new for the common good. This will flex your leadership skills. If communication is a weakness, then take courses in public speaking or take classes that require you to get up in front of a class and speak. Remember that your future employer is looking for a team player who can play well across sand boxes!

Focus on the future The sowing and reaping paradigm from my book works well in all situations. Have a vision of what it is that you plan to do after you graduate and then diligently work towards the goal. If you are having difficulty focusing, have a peer, or better yet a mentor, help you through this process.  Do not let yourself to be shaped by past failures or successes of 2011. Remember that in academia failures are often stepping stones to great success stories.

Expect great things I believe that you the student have an excellent seed within you called potential. You need to have a positive mind set and expect great things. Otherwise, why bother going through four plus years of higher education? Do not surround yourself with negative people—those fondly called the “glass is half empty” folks! Guard your vision.

Press on towards the goal in front of you!

Sundar A. Christopher

(*Inspired by Rusty Nelson)

Today’s – Tuesday, March 15, 2011 – Huntsville Times front page headline which read “Williams surprises UAH with departure,” comes as no surprise at all.

UAH President David Williams resigns - Huntsville Times front page 3/15/11

What I found particularly interesting about the article was that the story written by Lee Roop – a very talented and gifted writer whose style I admire (Lee, if you’re reading this, I wish you’d write more “fun” stuff as you had previously) – had a different tenor than the sidebar entitled “Timeline: Dr. David Williams at UAH.” The timeline was essentially the ‘highlights’ of what was essentially, a very negative presidency. It wasn’t that the timeline was out of sorts with Williams’ so-called accomplishments, but that his brief history at UAH was continuously pock-marked characterized by strife, conflict, outrage by faculty, staff, students, alumni and the community alike. The capstone of his brief presidency was, perhaps, the Amy Bishop mass murder. As I had written, “Presided over the UAH Mass Murder” – That WILL NOT look good on a resume!”

March 2007 – “Immediately talks about increasing research ties with the Army at Redstone Arsenal.”
Translation: Criticizes the university & RSA’s efforts.

April 2008 – “Williams unveils his “Powers of 10” goals to increase research money, doctoral degrees, student population and other indicators.”
Translation: UAH has been a failure to this point.

March 2009 – “The Huntsville Times reports on campus frustration with Williams’ governing style. Williams cites the problems of leading after a national economic collapse. By now, the university has lost another $12.6 million in state funding.”
Translation: Williams’ bull-in-the-china-shop approach wins no friends, and he refuses to accept responsibility for failures that occur under his direction.

April 15, 2009 – Williams announces the hiring of former NASA Administrator Dr. Michael Griffin to lead a new systems engineering center.
Translation: Williams announces a $350,000/year salary & automatic tenure mistake who will invent a contrivance which will waste more money than it brings in.

April 29, 2009 – “All 25 academic department chairs write an open letter expressing “deep and intense dissatisfaction with the way in which important decisions are being made” and claim “faculty morale is at an all-time low.”
Translation: In about two years into your presidency, you have already demonstrated your abysmal and utter disregard for faculty, students and staff.

Nov. 19, 2009 – “UAH announces it will require all freshmen and sophomores to live on campus. Fearing a loss of local students, the faculty senate considers a vote of censure.”
Translation: Further evidence that Williams has NO CLUE about leadership, and alienates himself from those whom he should support – not vice versa.

Jan. 8, 2010 – “Williams survives a 20-18 vote against censure in the faculty senate.”
Translation: You are STILL doing a crummy job, and we want to make damn sure you know it, buddy!

Feb. 12, 2010 – “An assistant biology professor, Dr. Amy Bishop, is accused of opening fire in a faculty meeting on campus, killing three professors and wounding three more, police say. Williams’ leadership in the weeks following wins high praise from trustees.
Translation: Not from students, faculty, staff or the community.

Feb. 28, 2010 – UAH bends on the housing policy and allows freshmen and sophomores to stay at home.
Translation: The students, parents, community, faculty, and staff were so outraged that the Alabama State Legislature almost enacted a law which would have negated Williams’ bull-headed requirement.

March 2010 – Dr. Shankar Mahalingam, former chair of the mechanical engineering department at the University of California, Riverside, is named dean of the UAH engineering program. It is, along with Griffin, one of several high-profile hires.
Translation: Even though one of Williams first acts was to fire many faculty, and staff whose efforts brought the university to it’s present status, he hires others at exorbitant salaries, and whom know little or nothing about this community or more importantly, the institution.

August 2010 – UAH announces enrollment has dipped only 1 percent, less than feared after the housing announcement and faculty shootings.
Translation: Williams’ plans are STILL experiencing failure.

February 2011 – UAH marks the one-year anniversary of the campus shootings.
Translation: Dr. David B. Williams name will forever be attached to that horrible tragedy.

March 14, 2011 – Williams announces his resignation effective April 1.
Translation: I’m the joker. Oh happy day! Hallelujah!

Ironically, even Williams’ departure shows NO REGARD for the students. Why? In about three months – June – UAH will be graduating another class of students, undergrad, and graduate alike. And whose signature will be upon the diplomas? Leave those students hanging. That solitary action really shows your lack of character. Great… just friggin’ great, Dave. You are a thoughtless cowardly quitter – among other things. At this juncture, I shall refrain from other vulgar or obscene pejoratives, though in my opinion, you are worthy of them all. Goodbye, and good riddance! A word of parting advice: Don’t let the door hit you on your butt on your way out!

UA System trustee & president pro tempore of the board Finis St. John IV said, “I’m not sure what his plans are, but we wish him very well in the future. There’s nothing more to it than that.” By that solitary remark, you can be assured there IS something “more to it than that.” St. John followed up his remark by saying that UA System trustees “have been hearing from the system office about what was going on for a little while.”

On of the first signs of Williams’ bull-in-the-china-shop approach was his unilateral decision to change the name of the university from “The University of Alabama in Huntsville,” to “UAHuntsville.” Interestingly, the newspaper, community members and others still refer to it as “UAH.”

The newspaper quoted Dr. Michael Griffin – whom Williams’ hired with automatic tenure, and at a salary only slightly below his as president, and which was several times more than Griffin was making as head of NASA – as saying “Dave is a natural leader…” etc., ad nauseam. Yeah, I suppose if you were lucky enough to get a job making several times more than what you made as Director of NASA, and with automatic tenure, you’d say ‘nice’ (suck up) things too. The BAD thing about Griffin is that he’s just like Dave – over educated idiot. (Misery loves company, you know.) The reader should bear in mind that I am not by any stretch of the imagination opposed to education, technical certification and skill. I am opposed to poor leadership – which is more appropriately termed ‘misleadership’.

I have been told by folks who were in attendance with Griffin at a local dinner fete that Griffin sat at the table  engrossed with his Blackberry the entire time, and said not one word to other guests in attendance. He made no attempt to engage in any social interaction. Griffin, by his own admission, has poor people skills, and shortly after the 2010 November General Election, he was reported by the Orlando Sentinel – eventually making worldwide news – that he had been engaged in a shouting match with the soon-to-be #2 in charge of NASA, Lori Garver, which episode was witnessed by several others – though they declined to give their names.

Griffin may be a technical expert – witness his numerous degrees – but he is a social misfit, and should NOT be an executive in charge of any people. And he is CERTAINLY overpaid. Williams had the gall and audacity to hire Griffin at a hugely exorbitant salary ($350,000 & automatic tenure) – which was only slightly below that of his as UAH President – even after firing many others at UAH, some of whom were only a few years away from retirement, and had made numerous longstanding contributions to the University – in stark contrast to Williams’ bull-in-the-china-shop mismanagement approach.

Day 35: Pinpointed the cause of the problem with one of the closet doors in my office (other than the fact that cheap, hollow-core bi-fold closet doors are the worst invention ever marketed to uncaring builders and unaware homeowners). Whoever lived here before yanked on the door so hard that the bottom pivot screw was actually ripped from the door, leaving a gigantic hole that I’ll have to fill with epoxy. Assuming I don’t simply replace both the doors with an awesome beaded curtain first.

Day 36: Spent the better part of the morning helping the husband set up my mom’s new computer via telephone and remove connection. He configured her wireless connection, while I ran Mac orientation. And if your mom has ever had computer problems while you were eight hours away, you know that helping her launch a reliable new computer setup totally helps your peace of mind. Ergo, this counts as a point for life organization.

Day 37: Spent a couple of hours researching online backup systems. I tried Mozy, but it’s become extremely unreliable lately, and its non-detailed interface doesn’t give me the warm fuzzies about which files have REALLY moved into the cloud. I’m currently leaning toward Dropbox, but I’m still taking nominations if anybody has a strong opinion.

Day 38: I made the mistake of taking the humidifier apart before I filled it up with water before bed. Oh my. The scale buildup on and around the heating element was simply horrifying, and I spent the better part of 30 minutes trying to scrub it clean. Even more horrifying was the knowledge that my husband had, indeed, actually cleaned it before. More than once. Meaning that the mess I saw did not take three years to accumulate, but possibly only weeks.

Day 39: I sorted through two catch-all UAH file folders. Not the biggest task, but I did manage to merge the documents that belonged together and get rid of some duplicates. The paperless office remains elusive.

Day 40: I grabbed a small stack of old copies of the New Yorker, tore out the stories that I had marked to save, filed them and put the old magazines in the recycling bin.

Invoke update here which gets new data, nothing happens. I’d forgotten, or it had not registered with me there is a version change and that means filename changes. No problem.

My only comment is wondering about the amount of month to month variation, an ongoing gripe with this kind of dataset (all global datasets suffer): annual variation should not be present. Such variation has the chickens in panic, watching every doom twitch is going to break eggs.

[Commented added 29th. Had a quick look at V5.4 post 2002 and it looks improved, less annual  variation. This problem is very tough for satellite data given a dataset from 1978 to date is a mix of disparate datasets. Only looking at post mid-2002 with UAH is single satellite, but as a whole dataset compromising one period for another is not an option, the dataset authors have a difficult job]

Here are September through December 2010 equal area plots, plus Hovmoller, 1990 through end 2010.

Click on an image for full size.

The pattern, can be seen over many years in Hadcrut3, is heat bumps in the tropics which then flows in time toward the poles, heat shedding. This is always followed by a colder time in the tropics. Pretty obviously this is in progress now. Expect much like the sequence after 1998. The recent cold in the northern temperature zone doesn’t figure, too transient and local to make the bigger picture.

I suspect a good measure of global is just a narrow band in the tropics, not global as such which adds confusion and time delays as heat flows. Those people trying to link terrestrial and solar might find it a better metric. That said, is there a variation in the degree of temperature variation in the north and of so why? Also the ongoing tilt from south to north, why? On the latter I suspect it is about to start moving back, but my reasons are unstated here.

Yes, I know, it’s been FOREVER since I posted on this thing. I’m going to have a lot more free time this semester, so I’m hoping I can revive this thing. I know I’ve said this many times, but maybe I can get it done this time.

Keys to Success
I think we can agree that most of us look at our city and wonder why it isn’t succeeding like we know it can. Also, I’m sure we all can agree that some of the things that need to be done/fixed are pretty obvious, and don’t take much imagination to think of.

Let’s start with the obvious.

Self Worth

I’ve noticed that most citizens and officials in Decatur have a low sense of pride in their town. I mean, I agree that Decatur isn’t exactly the most exciting city on the planet, but it’s not like we don’t have anything to be proud of. I’m not going to go through the long list of things that we have to be proud of, because honestly, people should do that on their own and they would probably be surprised at what all we have to offer.

Anyways, we all know “that person” that is constantly calling Decatur a boring town, hick town, lame town, or a dump… We’ll call that person… Gorgonn, King of Stupidity… we all dislike Gorgonn when he/she opens their mouth, cause usually it’s just utter stupidity that spews from it. Hopefully, Gorgonn will hate this blog post.

I really feel like something needs to be done to boost Decatur’s “rep.” Basically, we need to get something going that creates a sense of pride in the community. Unless the city is proud of itself, we will never prosper.

Young People

We need young people, not the kind that are trampling all over grandpa’s lawn while he’s trying to watch wheel of fortune, but the kind that are educated and are looking to start professional careers in or around the city. These kinds of people not only make a greater amount of money over their lifetime, but they bring a certain “vibe” to the city that just can’t be fabricated.

I’ll say that the city is moving closer to attracting more of these young’ns, but more needs to be done. The monthly downtown funtime that occurs on the Friday is a good step, it brings people downtown, and though I haven’t yet visited one of these things, I can only assume that they’re fun.. ish. Like I said, more needs to be done. What can be done to attract more young people?

Young Professionals and their Social Lives

If I’m not mistaken, there is already an organization in town that brings young professionals together. If there is, good, if there isn’t, it needs to be created. I know Huntsville has one, and they’re pretty good things that bring young professionals together to meet, greet, gather, and socialize. They’re great ways to meet new people in a town that’s pretty spread out and sub-urbanized.

Not only do these bring people together to socialize, but they also do great things for the community. Typically, they do volunteer work like cleanups, tutoring, and other things.

Not only do these organizations bring together and maintain young professional populations that increase quality of life, and grow tax bases, they aid in attracting new industries and businesses, typically the ones that employ educated people.

Education

How many times have you talked to Gorgonn and heard the stupid King mention that Decatur is dumb, and has education problems. Being a product of the Decatur City School system, I can tell you that the resources are available for kids to succeed. When I arrived at the University of Alabama, I was prepared, and I wasn’t the kid that was sitting on their bed the night before an exam wondering why he couldn’t understand everything.

What I’m getting at is that Decatur doesn’t have an educator problem, it has an educated problem. What I mean is that the kids that are being taught are where we’re going wrong. Before you call me Gorgonn and say that I’m calling our kids stupid, I’m not, I promise. What I mean to say is that we have a problem with our kids not being inspired to learn, having a lack of aspirations, and just plain not wanting to learn.

There’s a big problem with kids not feeling like they’ll amount to anything, at all. Basically, we’re turning them into more Gorgonns… that isn’t what we want. We need to create a way to inspire our children, get them to be excited about their future, and helping them understand what they’re doing so they’ll want to learn.

I was a kid not too long ago, so I feel I know pretty well what it takes to get kids interested. As adults know, in college, classes get easier as you get into the ones that are more specific to your major, you know, the ones that you’re really interested in. Why can’t we find a way to connect the interest they have in various subjects to the subjects they’re being taught in class?

The problem that most kids don’t know what they wanna be when they get done with school. It doesn’t matter if it’s simply to be a hairdresser, or being a nuclear engineer, we need kids to want to be something so that they’ll know they need to get through school to get there. Even the simplest of jobs takes some kind of education.

I know that we went through career stuff in middle school, but it’s something that need to be injected into their minds early in elementary school. If a kid wants to be an astronaut when they’re in 1st grade, who cares? I wanted to be a veterinarian when I was that age, and what am I in school for now? Geography. Kids’ aspirations change, it’s inevitable.  But, to not inform them about their possible job prospects (even the unlikely ones) at a young age, simply because they’re gonna change what they want to do as they get older or they don’t understand how hard it is to get to these careers, is utterly Gorgonn-like. The fact is, the kids will eventually realize what their capabilities are as they age, and their aspirations will become more and more attainable. Another fact is, we aren’t doing enough to foster the kind of “career imagination” that we should be. The best part about doing this stuff is that it doesn’t have to cost money.  Start this at a younger age and I guarantee you increase the likelihood of their desire to be educated.

Corporate Involvement

Decatur City Schools has a very good relationship with area business and industry, this much is a fact. I remember receiving many benefits and visits from industry representatives in the Decatur area while I was going through school. This needs to be maintained, and expanded. Yes, these are rough economic times for the economy, but they are improving. Besides, an investment in an industry, or business’s, community is also an investment in that industry or business’s vitality and success. This is something that needs to be spread around. Happy and successful children equals happy and more productive parents (who are also employees of these companies).

Higher Education

I think this is an area that all of us know needs to be improved.  Morgan County will not have a single institute of higher education until the North Alabama Center for the Arts open in a few years.  While this is a great development for both downtown and the areas education, we still need to do more.  The nearest legitimate 4 year college is UAHuntsville, which is a good distance from Decatur.  We have education opportunities, but they aren’t convenient.

I’ll say, this is one field that I don’t know much about.  Higher ed politics are very complex and confusing, and rather costly.  Something should be done.  We see branches of Troy University in Dothan, Montgomery, and even Panama City, FL, why can’t we have something similar in Decatur?  Wallace State also has various branches of its school in the state.  I believe this is something that our city leaders need to look into and act upon.  We need someone to meet with leaders of Troy, Wallace State, Alabama, and maybe even UNA to examine the possibilities of opening a campus in Decatur.

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Transportation:  Planes, Trains, and Automobiles

Strike One: The Arctic had fewer melt days in 2010 than normal, as seen in this chart from the Centre for Ocean and Ice of the Danish Meteorological Institute.  The horizontal blue line that you see represents 0 degrees centigrade – the point at which ice melts. The green line curving above the blue line shows the historic mean, since 1979, of the number of melt days that the Arctic experienced, and the red line shows the number of melt days in 2010. To the chagrin of the global warming advocates, 2010 was not the year of The Big Melt.

Strike Two: The Antarctic refuses to melt, too, as seen in a recent study in the peer-reviewed Journal of Climate that corrected an erroneous report that had appeared in Nature. The Nature study claimed that large parts of the Antarctic interior were warming. Once the statistical errors in the Nature study were corrected, the Antarctic interior was shown to be cooling still, as had long been believed.  An explanation by Steve McIntyre, co-author of the Journal of Climate article, showing where Nature went wrong appears on the Climate Audit website, here.

Strike Three: Overall temperatures in 2010 weren’t the warmest ever, as many were predicting. The cold December temperatures drove down the 2010 average to below the previous high in 1998, as shown by satellite data from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH). The difference between the two years is statistically insignificant – one hundredth of one degree centigrade – making it also scientifically irrelevant. But that fraction of a degree was enough to deny the global warming camp the PR victory that it would have claimed had 2010 nosed out 1998 as the hottest year in memory.

The best news for the global warming team: They get more at bats in 2011.

LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com
Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and the author of The Deniers.

http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2010/11/27/the-arctic-gap.html

Both the following are rotated to roughly match the plots cited in the other blog.

Actually used, looks like 90,30 which is 30 degree clockwise, plot range +-4C, disc is for whole earth equal area:

lua query.lua uahtlt render year=2010 month=10 centre=90,30 size=1024,768 range=4 lamaz

Sept 2010

Oct 2010

This was all done quickly and I couldn’t remember how to do it! No doubt could be improved.

I am not looking for comments here.

Click for full size.

This is the most accurate I can do at the moment.

A discovery was a time offset for the residual annual cycle and harmonics for both datasets, an unexpected and strange effect. Why? It ought to be centred on exactly one year.

I am nervous about allowing for this without knowing what is going on. Perhaps it is an artefact of the quantised satellite orbit mismatching orbital period. (is about 0.97 year instead of 1)

I’ve used datasets computed here from gridded because this avoids the Shannon limitation in the published data. (doubt it makes a material difference)

Data, intermediates, full explanations, ask.

Sin embargo, gran parte de lo que hoy podemos ver en esa zona de Alcalá es relativamente reciente, porque si echamos la vista veinte años atrás podremos comprobar cómo en aquellos tiempos lo único que había por esas explanadas de tierra era el propio hospital Príncipe de Asturias (que se construyó a mediados de los ochenta) con las facultades de medicina y farmacia frente a él y, algo más apartada, la facultad de ciencias ambientales. Un par de instalaciones deportivas y la zona de residencias para los estudiantes y los míticos hangares abandonados completaban el paisaje de un pequeño campus universitario que poco tiene que ver con lo que se ha edificado por allí en los últimos años.

Campus de ciencias de la universidad de Alcalá en 1990. Fotografía extraída del libro "15 años de ayuntamientos democráticos". (Click sobre la imagen para ver notas y localización geográfica).

A la proliferación actual de facultades, escuelas, residencias, parques, jardines e instalaciones deportivas se une en los últimos meses la creación del parque científico-tecnológico Tecnoalcalá que acoge a varias empresas estrechamente relacionadas con la universidad y que serán el caldo de cultivo de los futuros investigadores de nuestro país.

Como os digo, el campus universitario de ciencias de la universidad de Alcalá es uno de los lugares que más me ha sorprendido cuando descubrí su aspecto de hace dos décadas mediante esta fotografía precisamente por conocerlo hoy en día casi como la palma de mi mano. Éste es, sin duda, uno de los rincones de la ciudad que más ha evolucionado en los últimos tiempos, dando fe del crecimiento tan grande que ha experimentado Alcalá de Henares.

¡Hasta el próximo vuelo sin motor!  ;-)

Satellite Record Now Shows Warming Across All Date Ranges

I don’t think that anyone disagrees with the fact that we actually are in the middle of a cold period that started about nine years ago. Now that’s not me talking. Those are the scientists who say that.

- U.S. Senator James Inhofe, July 23, 2010

There has been global cooling for the last eight or nine years, statistically significant and rapid cooling.

- Christopher Monckton, St. Paul, Minnesota, October 14, 2009

Since the turn of the millenium on the first of January 2001, the trend of global temperatures has been a down trend, not a very significant down trend, but it certainly hasn’t been an up trend.

- Christopher Monckton, Alex Jones Show, June 24, 2010

The University of Alabama at Huntsville’s recently-revised satellite record since the turn of the millennium on 1 January 2001…shows a slight warming trend in global temperatures over the decade.

- Christopher Monckton, SPPI Monthly CO2 Report, July 2010

The number of years always varies. Sometimes it will be “since 1998″. Other times it will be “this century” or “for the last ten years”.

Except now, it doesn’t matter what number is selected. With NOAA reporting that global temperatures for the the first six months of 2010 were the warmest on record, every time period over the satellite record that starts with a point from 1979 onward and ends at the present shows a warming trend.

All of them.

Rising temperatures over the last year? Check. Last three years? Check. Last five years? Check. Last 10? 15? 30? Check. Check. Check.

Of course, arbitrarily selecting a starting point for a temperature trend has always been a specious argument. Year-to-year variation in temperatures is more a factor of weather resulting from variability in short term conditions, noise within the longer term climate signal. Climate is about trends over longer periods. The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) utilizes a standard 30-year-period to define a “climatological normal”. And, as you can see from the satellite temperature records below from the University of Alabama, Huntsville, the 30-year signal is unmistakable.

But, it is interesting to note that, even with cherry-picking a start date such as the “El Nino of the Century” in 1998 or a sub-decadal period within the last 10 years, all of them now show an increase, even if slight. This peak condition has arisen despite the Sun just barely emerging from a solar minimum that saw the quietest period in almost a century, a steady 30-year El Nino / La Nina index, and a cooling Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

It’s also worth noting that this trending condition will not last. Following every peak, there is a valley, no matter how shallow or how short term, and those committed to inaction will always exploit such variability to break out the parkas, build igloos, and call “global warming” a hoax.

Coincidentally, on Saturday, the day after Senator Inhofe was quoted by ABC News, temperatures in the Washington D.C. area hit 101^o Fahrenheit, a record high.

One of the ‘high points‘ of the FD activities Saturday was tracking the WB8ELK hitch-hiker payload on the weekly ozone sonde. “The What ?” you’re probably saying . . . Every week NOAA launches a weather balloon from the UAHuntsville NSSTC building, to measure and report back with ozone levels from various flight elevations. In supporting the UAH Space Hardware Club projects, Bill Brown – WB8ELK designs and builds miniture/lightweight telemetry units that include a GPS receiver and a milliwatt transmitter. The beacon signal on 144 MHz is received and decoded with a soundcard modem in a laptop, and the Lat/Lon/Elevation data is passed over the internet to a web site that displays the path on a map – in near-real-time. Pretty cool. Actually, this is really cool. Last Saturday there was very little wind aloft, and the balloon stayed nearly overhead the whole flight. We could actually see it ‘naked-eye’ from our club station house – at nearly 100,000 ft !!!!! We were even watching as it burst – amazing. I’ll post Bill’s flight recap as a comment to this article. I wish I had possessed the presence of mind at the time to do a screen capture of the flight path on the map. The payload was recovered only a short distance from the HARC Field Day site at Intergraph, which was only a few miles from our location.

And speaking of the HARC, on Sunday morning I made our 2nd satellite contact via VO-52 with K4BFT (the HARC callsign)..!.. Pretty neat to use the satellite to talk with Tim – N8DUE, while he was only a few miles away. BTW – congratulations to Tim for bringing a ‘real‘ satellite station for HARC‘s FD this year. I understand he had quite a few followers and has again inspired several to chase these birds with us. Welcome back Tim . . .

All in all, I declare this Field Day effort by WA4NZD to have been a success.!. We put this station back on the air after a protracted absence of over 10 years, we introduced several new hams to the thrill of nationwide fast-paced contacts, and we re-invigorated a few ‘less-than-active‘ hams with a new motivation to get back into the program… We now have two contest logs to upload into the eQSL database. Even tho we were not out ‘in a field’, our operating circumstances were not much better considering the run-down state of the club house. It has greatly improved tho, and is starting to look like a real station again. The fact that the building’s air-conditioning unit has a bad compressor – and by late afternoon the inside temperature was 90+ … was taken into stride as one of those hardships that we might face under ‘adverse emergency conditions’ – and we survived…
(Hopefully that replacement unit will soon be approved and installed.)
(Hint, hint, hint – Wink, wink)

Thanks again to all those who came out to operate and show their support. For everyone else – I hope you can make this next meeting !
See ya there.  /;^)
WB5RMG

I’m a man.

Here’s my abortion story.

While in Nursing School, all students were (and likely are still) required to take clinical rotations through various environments where health-related services were provided. Included among them were offices, hospitals (of course), and other clinical areas.

One day, in an out-patient, walk-in clinic/office setting, I was directed to assist the RN whom would be my clinical site supervisor for the day.

In that one clinical setting, I was informed by the RN with whom I would be working that one patient would be given an injectable abortifacient – a drug administered specifically because it will cause an abortion. In other words, it will kill the baby growing in its mother’s womb.

Though I oppose abortion, it is good to have knowledge of various abortion procedures because of the potential problems that inevitably result from them. At the time, I didn’t oppose abortion for moral and ethical reasons, though I do now. If I were faced with the same scenario now, I sincerely doubt that I could in good conscience be a witness to it, or in any way participate. And to be clear, at the time, about all I did was exactly that – witness. In no way did I administer or encourage the patient. I merely witnessed. Thus, I write from a witness’s perspective. (I am NOT in a witness protection program.)

My clinical experience was scheduled to be for the duration of the clinic’s operating day, which was normal business hours, ending approximately before 4:30PM. The clinic was across the street from the Emergency Entrance of Huntsville Hospital, and was a clinic that saw numerous patients for physicians whom had hospital privileges at Huntsville Hospital – though it was codependent upon the hospital for its existence. It was a clinic that treated various clients with numerous health concerns, not just women.

I was informed about the client/patient and the circumstances of her pregnancy. To the best of my recollection, she was a married woman, and I specifically recall she was White. While I do not specifically recall the abortifacient, it may have been medroxyprogesterone, which is available in an injectable form, or methotrexate – I don’t specifically recall. And though I don’t specifically recall, the Nurse may have asked me if I would object to witnessing what she was about to do, or accompanying her. I seem to have the sense that she did – though I don’t specifically recall – and I likely indicated that I would observe.

The patient was unaccompanied to her appointment, and sat alone in the small treatment/examination room.

Having been briefed about what to expect, including the client/patient’s clinical background pertinent to her presence in the clinic, I accompanied the RN, and said not a word. She had earlier shared with the mother that I was a Nursing student and asked if she had any objections to my presence, to which she responded that she did not.

As I listened to the Nurse describe for the pregnant woman some of the expected physical consequences and immediate danger signs to be observant for, I saw tears well up in the mother’s eyes, and she wept openly.

As she answered the questions, she dabbed her eyes with the tissue I handed to her.

We – the Nurse and I – left the room briefly, during which time she reconstituted and drew out the abortafacient injection into a suitable syringe. She told me that the preferred sites for injection were the deltoid (upper arm) or gluteus (buttock), and that she was going to give the mother the option of choosing the injection site. She also said that if the mother choose the buttock and felt uncomfortable with me in the room, then it would be appropriate for me to excuse myself briefly, or turn my back, as appropriate. I expressed that I understood, and would respect the patient’s request.

As we – the Nurse and I – arrived in the room, the Nurse had the abortifacient in the syringe, with the needle capped. She then explained that the two preferred sites for the injection were the upper arm or buttock, asked the mother where she wanted to receive the injection. She said she wanted the injection in her buttock, and unbuttoned her blue jeans, lowering them and her panties just enough to uncover her buttock, whereupon the Nurse cleansed the site with an alcohol prep, and injected her.

The mother then pulled up her panties and jeans, the Nurse spoke a few more words, and the Nurse and I left the room. The mother stayed for a few minutes so that the Nurse could observe for any severe untoward effects, and then left.

It seemed that there was an extended moment of odd silence afterward – neither the Nurse, her other colleague(s) or I spoke – and I pondered at what I had just witnessed.

That I recall, I’ve never told anyone else about this experience, save my clinical instructor at UAH.

I’m glad to finally get this out in the open.

LORD, have mercy.

Christ, have mercy.