Over at RealClimate.org, Kevin Wood and Eric Steig present the results of a comparison between time series of temperature data taken at random from the CRU historical temperature dataset, and equivalent time series (i.e. representing the same geographical locations) from other historical datasets. The aim is to see if there is any significant difference between the CRU data and the non-CRU data. This is important because a lot of the attacks on CRU are claiming that CRU scientists massaged the data to support the case for global warming. The “sceptics” claim that the world isn’t warming, or that it isn’t our fault if it is – it’s difficult to keep up with which argument they’re using.

Anyway, the upshot is that the trends in the CRU data are also present in the other other data. Wood and Steig describe them as “statistically identical”. The CRU data have not been massaged by CRU scientists to produce a false warming trend (in fact I recall discussions in CRU back in the early 1990s about correcting the data to remove urban heat island effects , in order to avoid spurious warming trends – “CRU scientists massage data to remove warming” shock!).

If you’re not convinced, Wood and Steig provide links to the data, both CRU and non-CRU, the latter from the US University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). Yes, the data are freely available over the internet, as they have been for ages. So you can repeat their analysis yourself. Anyone claiming that CRU have been massaging the data to show false trends needs to do this before they’re in a position to throw any more mud. If you unable to do your own independent analysis then you’re probably not in a credible position to attack the science.

Real swivel-eyed conspiracy theorists will no doubt claim that UCAR are involved in the same conspiracy to mislead the world about climate change. If you’re one of those then you at least need to extend your invective to include UCAR and other organisations involved in data gathering, management and processing, as, given the apparently revealed truth that the world isn’t warming, anyone providing evidence that it is must surely be lying. However, if you’re one of the many normal people who are simply genuinely confused about the science as a result of this fiasco, and who have been persuaded by the sceptics that there is no scientific consensus on climate change after all, maybe this post on RealClimate will help (like I said, if you’re genuinely sceptical in the original and proper sense of the word, you can repeat the analysis or get someone you trust to do so).

Attacks singling out CRU for misrepresenting the science are no longer viable. Either CRU’s science is sound, even if its staff have said some unkind things about sceptics and their work in some private emails, or there has been a global conspiracy to fabricate data stretching back decades – to before anybody had even heard of global warming and predating the 1970s worries about the next ice age. If you think the latter, you’re not going to be convinced otherwise by me, or anyone else, and I’m not going to push it.

İskilipli Atıf Hoca, Türk din adamı (d. 1875 / 1876 – ö. 1926)

Şapka Kanununa muhalefetten İstiklal Mahkemelerinde yargılanarak 4 Şubat 1926 tarihinde Haksiz yere idam edildi.

filmi izlmek için devamı yazısını tıklayın

“By the sky which returns.” (Quran 86:11)

“[He] who made for you the earth a bed [spread out] and the sky a ceiling…” (Quran 2:22)

In the first verse God swears by the sky[1] and its function of ‘returning’ without specifying what it ‘returns.’ In Islamic doctrine, a divine oath signifies the magnitude of importance of a special relation to the Creator, and manifests His majesty and the supreme Truth in a special way.

The second verse describes the Divine Act that made the sky a ‘ceiling’ for the dwellers of earth.

Let us see what modern atmospheric science has to say about the role and function of the sky.

The atmosphere is a word which denotes all the air surrounding the earth, from the ground all the way up to the edge from which space starts. The atmosphere is composed of several layers, each defined because of the various phenomena which occur within the layer.

This image shows the average temperature profile through the Earth’s atmosphere. Temperatures in the thermosphere are very sensitive to solar activity and can vary from 500°C to 1500°C. Source: Windows to the Universe, (http://www.windows.ucar.edu), the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). ©1995-1999, 2000 The Regents of the University of Michigan; ©2000-04 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

Rain, for one, is ‘returned’ to Earth by the clouds in the atmosphere. Explaining the hydrologic cycle, Encyclopedia Britannica writes:

“Water evaporates from both the aquatic and terrestrial environments as it is heated by the Sun’s energy. The rates of evaporation and precipitation depend on solar energy, as do the patterns of circulation of moisture in the air and currents in the ocean. Evaporation exceeds precipitation over the oceans, and this water vapor is transported by the wind over land, where it returns to the land through precipitation.”

Not only does the atmosphere return what was on the surface back to the surface, but it reflects back into space that which might damage the flora and fauna the earth sustains, such as excessive radiant heat. In the 1990’s, collaborations between NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) of Japan resulted in the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Science Initiative. Polar, Wind and Geotail are a part of this initiative, combining resources and scientific communities to obtain coordinated, simultaneous investigations of the Sun-Earth space environment over an extended period of time. They have an excellent explanation of how the atmosphere returns solar heat to space.

Besides ‘returning’ rain, heat and radio waves, the atmosphere protects us like a ceiling above our heads by filtering out deadly cosmic rays, powerful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the Sun, and even meteorites on collision course with Earth.

Pennsylvania State Public Broadcasting tells us:

“The sunlight that we can see represents one group of wavelengths, visible light. Other wavelengths emitted by the sun include x-rays and ultraviolet radiation. X-rays and some ultraviolet light waves are absorbed high in Earth’s atmosphere. They heat the thin layer of gas there to very high temperatures. Ultraviolet light waves are the rays that can cause sunburn. Most ultraviolet light waves are absorbed by a thicker layer of gas closer to Earth called the ozone layer. By soaking up the deadly ultraviolet and x-rays, the atmosphere acts as a protective shield around the planet. Like a giant thermal blanket, the atmosphere also keeps temperatures from getting too hot or too cold. In addition, the atmosphere also protects us from constant bombardment by meteoroids, bits of rock and dust that travel at high speeds throughout the solar system. The falling stars we see at night are not stars at all; they are actually meteoroids burning up in our atmosphere due to the extreme heating they undergo.”

This is an image of Earth’s polar stratospheric clouds. These clouds are involved in the creation of Earth’s ozone hole. Source: Windows to the Universe, (http://www.windows.ucar.edu/) at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). ©1995-1999, 2000 The Regents of the University of Michigan; ©2000-04 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

Encyclopedia Britannica, describing the role of Stratosphere, tells us about its protective role in absorbing dangerous ultraviolet radiation:

“In the upper stratospheric regions, absorption of ultraviolet light from the Sun breaks down oxygen molecules; recombination of oxygen atoms with O2 molecules into ozone (O3) creates the ozone layer, which shields the lower ecosphere from harmful short-wavelength radiation…More disturbing, however, is the discovery of a growing depletion of ozone over temperate latitudes, where a large percentage of the world’s population resides, since the ozone layer serves as a shield against ultraviolet radiation, which has been found to cause skin cancer.”

The mesosphere is the layer in which many meteors burn up while entering the Earth’s atmosphere. Imagine a baseball zipping along at 30,000 miles per hour. That’s how big and fast many meteors are. When they plow through the atmosphere, meteors are heated to more than 3000 degrees Fahrenheit, and they glow. A meteor compresses air in front of it. The air heats up, in turn heating the meteor.

This is an image which shows the Earth and its atmosphere. The mesosphere would be the dark blue edge located on the far top of the image underneath the back.
(Image courtesy of NASA)

Earth is surrounded by a magnetic force field – a bubble in space called “the magnetosphere” tens of thousands of miles wide. The magnetosphere acts as a shield that protects us from solar storms. However, according to new observations from NASA’s IMAGE spacecraft and the joint NASA/European Space Agency Cluster satellites, immense cracks sometimes develop in Earth’s magnetosphere and remain open for hours. This allows the solar wind to gush through and power stormy space weather. Fortunately, these cracks do not expose Earth’s surface to the solar wind. Our atmosphere protects us, even when our magnetic field does not.

An artist’s rendition of NASA’s IMAGE satellite flying through a ‘crack’ in Earth’s magnetic field.

Bank Asya 1. Lig ekiplerinden Altay’da, teknik direktör Feyyaz Uçar ile ”yolların ayrıldığı” bildirildi.

Looking ahead to the next few days for the forecast, it certainly looks like we are getting back into the more active Autumn to Winter pattern here in the Northeast part of the country. Over the past few days, the country has seen a large cutoff low form in the central part of the United States that dumped some pretty copious amounts of rainfall over the eastern part of the country, especially in the Carolinas and Northward. A satellite image from yesterday is supplied below.

Above: 18Z Satellite Imagery from http://rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite

Currently, it certainly looks like a wet Saturday night here in New Hampshire/New England, with possibly some heavy rainfall at times. After this evening, the low pressure system should lift out of the region, making for a beautiful Sunday. Temperatures this Sunday should approach or surpass the 60 degree mark in Plymouth, NH and surrounding areas. This warmup does not look to last, as cooler temperatures should be brought back into the area by a cold front on Monday. After this, cooler temperatures in the mid 40s should prevail for the remained of the week, with Partly to Mostly cloudy skies almost every day. As of this morning, the NE composite radar looked like this:

Above: 13Z Composite Radar for Northeast US.

The 500 hPa heights show the evolution of the cutoff low as it rejoins the flow over the next day. The models want to build a large ridge over the western US and a trough in the east, suggesting cooler weather for at least the next few days over the east coast. This is confirmed by the 850 hPa height field, which brings lower heights to the eastern half of the country over the next week.

Above: 500 hPa height field

Above: 850 hPa height field

So in short, a rainy Saturday night will be followed up by some nicer weather for the week, with cooler temperatures prevailing. Till next time, thanks for reading

I’m visiting the Utah REALTORS® this week, and several members of the Utah State leadership and I had a chance to meet with Gov. John Huntsman and Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert on Tuesday.
Joining me in the photo below are (left to right) Taylor Oldroyd, CEO of the Utah County Association; Kenny Parcell, President of the Utah County Association; Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert; Matt Barton, President-Elect of the Utah County Association, Chris Kyler, CEO of the Utah Association; and Lerron Little, 2009 President-Elect of the Utah Association.

As some of you know, Gary Herbert is a REALTOR® and a past chair of NAR’s Issues Mobilization Committee. Both he and Gov. Huntsman are strong advocates for real estate. Utah’s economic strength is a credit to their good work and leadership. We are fortunate to have them both in office, and I am hopeful that Gary will follow Gov. Huntsman, who has said that he will not run for another term.
Although Utah has fared better than some other states in the current housing cycle, it has not been immune to the problems in the credit markets and the rise in foreclosures. I was very excited to hear that Gov. Huntsman is planning to set aside $30 million to help people who are have trouble with their mortgages avoid foreclosure. A portion would also help renters.
While the federal government is taking steps to address broad issues in the financial and housing markets, they can’t (and shouldn’t) be the only answer. I personally thank Gov. Huntsman and Lt. Gov. Herbert for their leadership in Utah, and I encourage other state and local leaders to do the same.
REALTORS® stand ready to work with public officials at all levels of government to help strengthen our communities and keep homeownership alive and well.
On Wednesday morning, I met with members who give significantly to RPAC through the Utah County Association. I talked to them about how we make decisions on which candidates to support, and I emphasized that 70 percent of the money they contribute stays right here in Utah. It was a good meeting, and I thank all of the Utah members who participate in our advocacy through RPAC and Grassroots.
Later that morning, I had the opportunity to speak to nearly 500 members at the Utah general membership meeting. They have three of these meetings per year, and to have that many people attend is remarkable. I spoke to them about how much we have accomplished this year, particularly on the public policy front. And I assured them that we will keep working to help REALTORS® and their clients in this challenging time.
The entire visit was inspiring, but the highlight for me was hearing Kenny Parcell address the members. Not only is he an incredible leader, but the experiences he shared, and the way he was able to reach out to REALTORS® in Utah, were just incredible.
Thanks to all of the wonderful folks in Utah for inviting me to visit – I am so proud to be your NAR President. Keep up the great work. You continue to prove that there is nothing we can’t accomplish when we work “All Together.” – Dick Gaylord, 2008 NAR President

To read more postings by Dick Gaylord and the NAR Leadership Team, visit their blog at:

http://narblog1.realtors.org/mvtype/president/

Mapas y pueblos del Camino de Santiago desde Somport / Saint Jean Pied-de_Port hasta Santiago de Compostela.

_mapa01_ de Somport / Saint Jean Pied-de-Port a Puente de la Reina / Mendigorría.

(1) Saint Jean Pied de Port, Lepoeder, Roncesvalles, Burguete, Espinal, Viscarret, Linzoáin, Zubiri, esquiroz, Larrasoaña, Aquerreta, Zuriáin, Iroz, Zabaldica, Arre, Pamplona, Guenduláin, Zariquiegui, Uterga, Muruzábal, Obanos, Puente de la Reina.

(2) Somport, Estación de Canfranc, Villanúa, Castiello de Jaca, Jaca…

(2.1) Puente la Reina, Arrés, Maites, Mianos, Artieda, Ruesta. (finaliza en el Embalse de Yesa).

(2.2) Abay, Ascara, Santa Cilia de Jaca, Santa Engracia, Berdún, Asso-Veral, Miramont, Las Tempranas, Sigüés, Escó, Monasterio de Leyre…

(2.2.1) Lumbier, Nardués, Aldunate, Izco, Abínzano, Salinas, Monreal, Yárnoz, Otano, Ezperun, Guerendiáin, Tiebas, Campanas, Biurrun, Úcar, Enériz, Eunate, Puente la Reina.

(2.2.2) Sangüensa, Aibar, Sada, Moriones, Olleta, Aatriain, Orisoáin, Garinoáin, Artajona, Mendigorría.

_mapa2_ de Puente de la Reina a Tosantos.

(1) Puente de la Reina, Mañeru, Cirauqui, Lorca, Villatuerta, Monasterio de Irache, Azqueta, Villamayor de Monjardín, Urbiola, Los Arcos, Sansol, Torres de Río, Viana, Logroño, Navarrete, Ventosa, Nájera, Azofra, Ciriúela, Santo Domingo de la Calzada, Grañón, Redecilla del Camino, Castildelgado, Villamayor del Río, Belorado, Tosantos.

_mapa3_ de Tosantos a Carrión de los Condes.

(1) Tosantos, Villambistia, Villafranca Montes de Oca, San Juan de Ortega, Atapuerca, Orbaneja, Gamonal, Burgos, Villalbilla de Burgos, Tardajos, Rabé de las Calzadas, Hornillos del Camino, Hontanas, Ruinas de San Antón, Catrojeriz, Itero de la Vega, Boadilla del Camino, Frómista, Villovieco, Villarmentero de Campos, Vírgen del Río, Villalcázar de Sirga, Carrión de los Condes.

_mapa4_ de Carrión de los Condes / Santiago de la Valduerma a San Justo de la Vega / Cuevas.

(1) Carrión de los Condes, Calzadilla de la Cueza, Santa María de las Tiendas, Ledigos, Terradillos de templarios, Moratinos, San Nicolás del Camino, Sahagún de Campos, Calzada del Coto,

(1.1.) Bercianos del Real Camino, El Burgo Ranero, Villamarco,
(1.2) Calzadilla de los Hermanillos,

Reliegos, Mansilla de las Mulas, Villamoros, Villarente, Valdelafuente, León, Trobajo del Camino, La Vírgen del Camino, Valverde de la Vírgen, San Miguel del Camino, Villadangos del Páramo, San Martín del Camino, Hospital de Órbigo, Villares, Santibáñez de Valdeiglesias, Crucero de Santo Toribio, San Justo de la Vega.

(2) Santiago de la Valduerma, La Bañeza, Palacios de la Valduerma, Cuevas.

_mapa5_ de Astorga a Peruscallo. (aquí comienzan los de Aguitura)

(1) Astorga, Murias de Rechivaldo, Santa Catalina de Somoza, El Ganso, Rabanal del Camino, Foncebadón, Cruz de Ferro, Manjarín, El Acebo, Riego de Ambrós, Molinaseca, Campo, Ponferrada, Columbianos, Fuentes Nuevas, Camponaraya, Cacabelos, Pierós, Villafranca del Bierzo, Pereje, Trabadelo, La Portela de Valcarce, Ambasmestas, Vega de Valcarce, Ruitelán, Herrerías, Hospital de los Ingleses, La Faba, Laguna de Castilla, El Cebrero, Liñares, Hospital de la Condesa, San Juan de Padornelo, Fonfría, Biduedo, Filloval, Las Pasantes, Ramil, Triacastela, Balsa, San Gil, Montán, Furela, Pitín, Calbor, Aguiada, San Mamed del Camino, San Pedro del Camino, Sarria, Viley, Barbadelo, rente, Mercado da Serra, Xisto del Camino, Domiz, Pena, Peruscallo.

_mapa6_ de Sarriá a Santiago de Compostela. (aquí comenzamos nosotros)

(1) Sarria, Viley, Barbadelo, Rente, Mercado da Serra, Xisto del Camino, Domiz, Pena, Peruscallo, Lavandeira, Brea, Mirallos, Couto, Rozas, Parrocha, Mercadillo, Vilacha, Portomarín, Tojibó, Gonzar, Castromayor, Hospital, Ventas del Narón, Prebisa, Lameiros, Ligonde, Portos, Lestedo, Brea, Lamelas, Palas de Rei, San Julián del Camino, Pontecampana, Casanova, Porto de Bois, Campanilla, Leboreiro, Furelos, Mellid, Raído, Peroja, Boente, Castañeda, Ribadiso, Arzúa, Las Barrosas, Raído, Cortobe, Calzada, Boavista, Salceda, Brea, Cerceda, Santa Irene, Burgo, Á Rúa, San Antón, Amenal, San Payo, Lavacolla, Villamayor, San Marcos, Capilla de San Marcos, Santiago de Compostela.

¿A que está todo super claro? Ya pueden, aquellos que andaban perdidos, hacerse una idea. Espero que os haya servido de ayuda. Estos mapas se encuentran en la web oficial del Camino de Santiago. ¡Un abrazo!.

Quand l’économie se tend, l’approche low-cost de l’agence TVLowCost Grand Est, c’est la “BONNE réponse au BON moment sur le BON média !”

Le premier fleuriste low cost

Happy, les fleurs à petits prix
Le réseau de franchise Monceau Fleurs a lancé un nouveau concept de magasins de proximité de moins de 80 m² appelé Happy. Ces boutiques vendent des fleurs à l’unité de 0,20 à 1 € la pièce, des bouquets préparés avec de nouveaux packagings (15 € le bouquet avec le vase en plexiglas, contre 30 € en moyenne chez d’autres fleuristes). Le cadre se veut tendance et épuré. Le premier magasin a ouvert ses portes en novembre à Paris.

En savoir plus : www.happy.fr

La location de véhicule à bas prix

UCAR : la location longue et courte durée de véhicule
UCAR est né de la conviction que la location est la façon de consommer l’automobile la plus avantageuse pour l’automobiliste moderne, à condition d’en faire baisser les prix. La société gère aujourd’hui un parc de 10 000 véhicules, dont 2 000 en location longue durée et 8 000 en location courte et moyenne durée. Les tarifs pratiqués rendent la location très compétitive par rapport à la propriété, à condition de ne pas se servir de sa voiture tous les jours. La réservation en ligne est possible.
En savoir plus : www.ucar.fr

Le coiffeur des petits budgets

Tchip : un coiffeur très bon marché mais efficace
Avec un forfait shampooing, coupe, brushing à 27 €, cette chaîne de salons de coiffure gagne du terrain. Ses 224 espaces dans toute la France, la place en tête sur ce marché. Un salon Tchip ouvre ses portes tous les 5 jours. Implanté en centres-villes, ses coiffeurs sont entraînés pour couper les cheveux vite et de façon économique, c’est à dire sans toute la fioriture proposée habituellement chez un salon traditionnel. La marque, née en 1986, appartient au groupe vOg.

En savoir plus : www.tchip.fr

Prem’s : le train pas cher

Prem’s : le billet premier prix de la SNCF
Le billet Prem’s s’achète directement avec un paiement en ligne, jusqu’à 14 jours avant le départ et permet de bénéficier d’une réduction de 30 % à 40 % sur le plein tarif. Attention, la vente est ouverte deux mois avant la date de départ et les stocks sont limités. De plus, il est non échangeable et non remboursable. Les opérations s’effectuent uniquement par Internet.

En savoir plus : www.voyages-sncf.com

La voiture à petit prix

La Logan de Dacia, une vraie voiture pour 7 500 €
Son lancement français en juin 2004 fait grand bruit. En 1999, Renault rachète le constructeur roumain Dacia et part à la conquète de l’est. Le but : proposer une voiture fiable et fonctionnelle aux clients qui n’ont pas les moyens d’acheter du neuf. Le groupe ambitionne la vente de 700 000 véhicules à l’horizon 2010. Un concept car Logan a même été présenté au dernier salon de l’automobile de Genève.

En savoir plus : Dossier Logan

La banque en ligne

Boursorama Banque, la banque low cost
Boursorama Banque, la fililale de la Société Générale, offre la possibilité d’ouvrir un compte courant par Internet. La procédure : on remplit un dossier, on le poste, et quelques jours plus tard, après la réception de codes d’accès, le compte est ouvert. Gratuit, ce service s’adresse aux particuliers. Toute la gestion est réalisée par Internet. Sans frais de maintenance d’agence, ni de paie pour les commerciaux, ses services bancaires sont meilleur marché. A titre d’exemple, la cotisation pour une carte Visa internationale à débit différé est à 35 € chez Boursorama. A la Société Générale, il faudra compter 42 €.

En savoir plus : www.boursorma.com

Le “low cost” aérien

Easy Jet, le pionnier des vols à prix cassés
Easy Jet a été l’une des premières compagnies aériennes à saisir l’opportunité d’Internet, en vendant ses billets pour la première fois en ligne en avril 1998. Aujourd’hui, ce sont près de 95 % de ses sièges à bord qui sont vendus sur le Net. La compagnie a réduit les coûts de distribution et d’émission grâce au billet électronique, ne propose pas de collation gratuite en vol, et a adopté une gestion de bureau “sans papier”, c’est à dire uniquement en informatique. EasyJet s’est étendue aux croisières, hôtels, cafés, location de voiture…

En savoir plus : www.easyjet.com

 « Les pauvres sont dégueulasses » déclare Ucar ! C’est l’accroche mise en avant, en mai 2008, dans la nouvelle campagne de publicité. Tel Coluche, le loueur de voiture a voulu choquer pour interpeller le public et le sensibiliser ainsi aux problèmes de pollution engendrés par les voitures anciennes. Bonne ou mauvaise intention (cela reste une pub, donc pour faire du profit), Martin Hirsch, le Haut Commissaire aux solidarités, a déclaré : « c’est de la vulgarité méprisable ».