Últimamente creo que estoy muy sensible o no se que lo que me pasa por que ante cualquier acto rápidamente me siento mal, no entiendo mi comportamiento del todo, aunque no lo demuestro esto es lo que siento, hace poco escuche una canción de Juan Gabriel mientras iba en el Taxi y lo primero que me vino a la mente eras tu obviamente pero no se a veces siento mucha tristeza cada vez que te lo hago saber pasa algo que me desanima un poco lo tengo que confesar pero aun así sigo enamorado de ti. Y como dice la canción “yo me estaría toda la vida siempre a tu lado, por que mi vida estoy de ti enamorado…” y en verdad lo siento, no se si llegues a leer esta lineas imagino que lo hago por que se que no lo leerás es raro que visites estos lugares.

Cierro los ojos y te veo siempre frente a mi y  te dijo siempre las cosas hermosas que te puedo decir, a veces no es necesario con un beso se puede decir mas de mil palabras una mirada es mas que suficiente tocar tus manos seria como estar en el paraíso y una sonrisa es ir directo al cielo.

“Tan solo besame y sabrás que como un loco estoy de ti… Enamorado”

“De que gustas es verdad, de que te quiero es verdad mas si me quieres aceptar no necesitas decir si, tan solo besame y sabrás que como un loco estoy de ti… Enamorado”

]]> http://waldo56.wordpress.com/2009/11/25/time-to-adjust/ Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:37:52 +0000 waldo56 http://waldo56.wordpress.com/2009/11/25/time-to-adjust/

With the unfortunate loss of Al Harris and Aaron Kampman for the season following the win over San Francisco, changes are going to have to be made moving forward to continue playing at the level we were at. Right now, more than ever, is when experienced coordinators with good football minds earn their paycheck. What sort of changes might we see out of Dom Capers?

Replacing Aaron Kampman:

Replacing Aaron might be easier than fans realize. This is one place where the 3-4 scheme really shines. The fluidity of the scheme allows for very different player types to be successful in the outside linebacker role, bringing different skill sets to the table. Many of the players that play OLB have to be hidden by scheme to some degree, and Kampman was no different. Clay is one of the rare 3-4 OLB’s that seems equally at home in virtually any role.

It was obvious that one of the places that Kampman was schematically hidden was in pass coverage. He dropped on occasion, but generally that was limited to little zone drops. He was not left in trail technique coverage on fast TE’s splitting the seam, and did not move over to press and bracket cover a WR. This is in very sharp contrast to Clay Matthews, who is trusted to do all of these tasks.

Kampman was also helped rushing the passer both by occasionally playing a 3-3-5 defense that put his hand in the dirt, and by overall maintaining a consistent launch point without an excess of twisting and stunting. In other words, things that he has been comfortable with. It has helped, though it has limited some of the overall defensive options.

Replacing Kampman most likely will be rookie Brad Jones, though Brady Poppinga and Jeremy Thompson could see time as well. Brad couldn’t be more different than Kampman, which could work to Dom’s advantage in a very big way. Hopefully this is where Dom Capers separates himself from former DC Bob Sanders. Brad is not the kind of player that can or should be plugged in to do the tasks that Kampman did the same way he did them. But on the flipside, he does open up a lot of things that were not previously possible.

Brad Jones is extremely fast and agile, and is especially noted for his ability to drop into coverage. Like Clay he can drop extremely deep from the 3-4 OLB position, and has the ability to stay with WR’s and TE’s, at least when he has some help. Dom almost surely will be much more comfortable with him in coverage, and won’t be consistently making an effort to have him rush the passer, limiting his coverage to the bare minimum as he was with Kampman. Of course the effect of this will be to enable more blitzing/zone blitzing. Clay will likely get to rush more, but I think that the biggest beneficiaries will be the ILB’s, I suspect that we will see them rush a good bit more.

Having been a 3-4 OLB, Brad likewise was not married to a small little plot of land on the line most of his career. I suspect that his launch point will not be as rigid as Kampman’s was, and be more like Clay, who moves around in the formation a great deal. This is greatly aided by the defensive line; they are playing at a level where the OLB’s don’t have to be extra DE’s on run plays, freeing the OLB’s up to shut down any attempts to bounce run plays outside, or pursue the tackle quickly. Every one of our top 4 defensive lineman can hold his ground in the face of a double team. Brad’s quickness will allow Dom to move him around a bit to probe for pass rushing weaknesses, and to allow for more stunting and combo rushing, where instead of an every man for himself, the LDE (typically Jolly) attempts to open a lane for the OLB moreso than plow through himself. The faster the OLB, the more effective that is.

While changes will be necessary, changes can be made to insert Brad Jones into the lineup without a big downgrade in defensive quality. Brad has a different skill set and will have to be used a different way, but the overall effect should hopefully be minimized. however it may change the way things “look”.

Replacing Al Harris:

This should almost be rephrased “replacing Tramon Williams”. Replacing Al should be the easy part, plug in Tramon, but replacing Tramon will be a task.

Dom can go two completely different directions with this. He can do exactly what Bob Sanders did, and literally replace Al with Tramon, placing him at the RCB spot over the split end on the sideline, or he can take the approach to keep Tramon doing what he has been doing, at least in nickle+ defense, only moving him over to Al’s spot on base defense. Either option should be equally viable, the route chosen will largely depend on how Dom adjusts to cope with the changes.

Al’s position at RCB is unique in that the route tree used by most teams is somewhat more limited. Few QB’s roll to their left. The timing of read progressions and pass patterns cuts out a good amount of intermediate routes, and if the QB turns to watch his split end, he is also watching his best pass protector, turning his back on some of his worst.

Though our defense plays all sorts of different coverages, if you had to group them into classifications, Al would be more of a man guy, Tramon more of a zone guy, and Woodson more of a rover. Al played the least amount of underneath zone of the 3. When rolling a S into the box or forward out wide, and using a CB as a S in a cover-2, 3, or 4, (forms of sky and cloud coverage), Al was typically a bail corner covering a deep zone, with LB’s or S’s covering underneath. Tramon bails much less, instead if one corner is used in the short zones more than others, Tramon is that guy. Whereas Woodson does a little of everything, generally in an effort to have him where the offense most wants to go.

When Tramon did fill in for Al last season, he did an excellent job basically doing Al’s job. In fact there seemed to be some differences where we might actually have had better pass defense, as we did run a little more zone during that time, not necessarily becasue Tramon is better in zone, but because he seems at home doing either, whereas Al definitely (at least in Sanders’ defense) was more at home in man.

One thing that we will likely see, with the hopeful return of Chillar soon, and Jones at OLB, is return to sparse dime defense. Prior to Chillar’s injury Green Bay rarely ran dime defense, even agaisnt 4-5 WR sets. The 4th CB did not see the field a whole lot.

If we do put Tramon in Al’s spot and replace Tramon, likely an increased amount of LB/S bracketing will be required. Which could mean less play in the box by Bigby and more zone drops by the LOLB. If we replace Al’s spot and keep Tramon in his, we are probably looking at 2 different players dedicated to the sideline, either CB shallow S deep, or CB deep S/LB shallow in distinct zones.

Whichever direction Dom goes, replacing Al wil surely stress our secondary.

The Potential Positives:

While the negatives of these injuries are obvious, some positives may be taken away.

Tramon will be a free agent again next year. This year he played for just over the tender amount. This is his time to grab hold of the starting job for good (even if Al returns, I don’t think that he will return as a starter). This gives Ted and his staff 6 games to determine just how much Tramon is worth, and if he is a viable starter. I’d like to think, if he makes the most of this situation that Ted will not tag him again, instead giving him a full starting CB contract while his value is still on the low end of starting CB’s.

It also gives Ted a chance to evaluate Bush as a defensive back. I doubt that he gets another chance. He’s been developing too long, this is a seize the moment or go away couple of games for him. If he can hold his own as the 3rd CB, he’ll likely stick. If someone else is given a shot after he is, because he didn’t seize the job, I suspect that this will be his last year. He have replacements at ST gunner now; his hold on a roster spot is much more tenuous than it has been.

With free agency on the horizon for Kampman, few Packer fans seriously thought that he would return to the team. The prevailing though being that he would be franchise tagged and traded (similar to Corey Williams) to a team that runs a 4-3 defense. With this injury he now has very little trade value and almost surely will not be franchised, chances are he simply leaves as a free agent.

This means that Kampman will need to be replaced long term this offseason. That task is much easier if Brad Jones (or Jeremy Thompson/Brady Poppinga) shows that they belong on the field this season, and that they are the long term solution. If not I suspect that free agency and/or higher draft picks will be used to fill this spot.

Young guys stepping up to fill an injury void and impressing is one of the primary ways that players become full time starters in this league. Lets keep our fingers crossed that we have the good fortune of that occurring at both spots for us. The players behind our lost starters are certainly physically talented enough to do so, it remains to be seen thather they put it all together.

Calculated Power Rankings, Unit Strength, Strength of Schedule, and Estimated Final Record following week 10 of the NFL season. I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.

 Everything is based on correcting the scoring offense and defense of each team for opponents, by calculating the expected scoring against an average opponent, instead of averaging the points scored against the actual opponents played. This allows all teams are evaluated on a level plane. Power is defined as scoring offense minus scoring defense, the list sorted by the net difference.

I run a full season calculation, and a most recent 4 weeks calculation and blend them (4:1) to acknowledge change and teams that are hot/cold.

Power Rank:

New England retains its hold on the top spot, meaning a NE upset prediction is coming for next week in a battle of 1 vs. 2. New Orleans rises past Indy, getting back to #2, slightly behind the Pats. A NO win this week likely will propel them back to #1, a position they held much of the season. Minnesota is finally playing like a top 5 team on the scoreboard, and finally rises up to #4.

Two huge changes this week. Pit takes a big fall out of the top 10. There are two comfortable data points for them, one in the middle of the top 10, one around 16. They have waivered between both all season, almost as if they are two different teams. Incidentally it strongly corresponds to Troy and his health status. San Diego makes a strong upward jump following their blowout of the Broncos. It likely will correct down a bit, but they have been on the move upward for several weeks, similar to last season.

Overall the field is compressing, most of the positive change (via the change indicator) is near the bottom, most of the negative change is near the top. Seems that the top and bottom are correcting, the top isn’t as great as they seemed, and the bottom isn’t as horrible as they seemed. A lot of the leagues bad teams seem to be on the verge of making some real improvement. Tennessee however remains absolutely on fire.

Net = Projected net scoring agaisnt an average opponent (PPG)
Off = Projected offensive scoring against an average defense (PPG)
O Rk = Rank of offense
Def = Projected scoring by an average offense against the defense (PPG)
D Rk = Rank of defense
Chg = Difference between data run of most recent 4 weeks and full season (hot/cold) (PPG)
C Rk = Rank of change.

Strength of Schedule:

Instead of using points, or quality opponents, etc, the method that I chose to rank the strength of schedule is the average power rank of opponent played. The current power rank is used and each week the full season recalculated.

Seas = Average power rank of all opponents all season
Prev = Average power rank of teams played thus far
P Rk = Ranked difficulty of past schedule
Fut = Average power rank of teams yet to be played
F Rk = Ranked difficulty of future schedule.

Estimated Final Record:

I use the power rank, current record, and future opponents to estimate the final record for the team. The net scoring against an average opponent for one team is subtracted from another to determine who is favored and by how many points.

If a team is favored by 14+ points, I assumed that they win 100% of the time.
If a team is favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 80% of the time.
If a teams is favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 60% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 40% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 20% of the time.

Overall the division leaders remain stable. In the NFC however, Philly has moved into a tie with Dallas in the NFCE. In the NFC wildcard race, the Packers are currently projected to take one WC, and the one that loses the NFCE tiebreaker gets the other. The Giants and Falcons are in WC catchup one game back, SF and Chicago are virtually eliminated. In the AFC the Ravens, Steelers, and Dolphins are the current WC favorites, with the Broncos, Texans, and Jaguars a game back in the chase. The Jets are on the edge of elimination.

Power Ranking Performance:

Week 1 record – 14-2
Week 2 record – 11-5
Week 3 record – 12-4
Week 4 record – 11-3
Week 5 record – 7-7
Week 6 record – 9-5
Week 7 record – 9-4
Week 8 record – 7-6
Week 9 record – 8-5
Week 10 record – 8-7
Week 11 record – 12-4
Total – 108-52
Missed Last Week – KC-Pit, Atl-NYG, Cin-Oak, Ten-Hou

Overall a pretty good week. Missed on the two big upsets. Predicted 2 underdog wins, got one correct (Mia-Car).

Enjoy

¿A que ha quedado genial?

Podeis comprarla aqui

Fun little surprise we saw while checking out the Richard Avedon exhibit at the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art. It was my first time there and since Katrina’s parents are members, we used the membership to get in for free. Boo yeah. The museum is amazing, especially those exhibits that had Elaine and I looking at each other and saying “WHAT THE $%^&*”.

Calculated Power Rankings, Unit Strength, Strength of Schedule, and Estimated Final Record following week 10 of the NFL season. I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.

Everything is based on correcting the scoring offense and defense of each team for opponents, by calculating the expected scoring against an average opponent, instead of averaging the points scored against the actual opponents played. This allows all teams are evaluated on a level plane. Power is defined as scoring offense minus scoring defense, the list sorted by the net difference.

I run a full season calculation and a most recent 4 weeks calculation and blend them (4:1) to acknowledge change and teams that are hot/cold.

Power Rank:

Despite the loss, New England maintains its spot as top dog. However Indy’s win and New Orleans’ weak showing against the Rams causes the Colts to move ahead of the Saints. Quietly the Saints defense has been in decline as of late, relative to earlier in the season.

The two pretenders that I pointed out last week took a bit hit to their rank as the system corrected itself. The Jets and Dolphins unusually high ranks have come down to earth, overall the top 10 looks very solid. It is expected, by this time of year, 6-7 of the final 10 are in the top 10.

Early on the change indicator was a bit of an oddity that didn’t show much. As of late it has become a much stronger indicator of who’s hot and who’s not, with Tennessee as the league’s hottest team currently, showing the most dramatic improvement in recent weeks, and the Broncos are the league’s coldest team. San Diego and Houston have been sustaining positive change for several weeks, most teams will oscillate around zero, sustained positive change is a sign of a team showing sustainable improvement.

In the battle for the basement, Oakland takes over for St. Louis as the worst team in the league. St Louis’ strong showing against New Orleans helped a great deal.

The early season trend of no below average teams, just a slightly below average team or two, then a huge drop to several awful teams is dissipating, with Tennessee and Carolina rising up out of the doldrums, Chicago and Seattle falling back from average. But the trend that showed up strongly last year that hasn’t been as notable yet this season is beginning to form again. At the top is a concentration of the best defensive teams. The best offenses are much more spread out than the best defenses. This trend showed strongly last year as well.

Net = Projected net scoring agaisnt an average opponent (PPG)
Off = Projected offensive scoring against an average defense (PPG)
O Rk = Rank of offense
Def = Projected scoring by an average offense against the defense (PPG)
D Rk = Rank of defense
Chg = Difference between data run of most recent 4 weeks and full season (hot/cold) (PPG)
C Rk = Rank of change.

Strength of Schedule:

Instead of using points, or quality opponents, etc, the method that I chose to rank the strength of schedule is the average power rank of opponent played. The current power rank is used and each week the full season recalculated.

Seas = Average power rank of all opponents all season
Prev = Average power rank of teams played thus far
P Rk = Ranked difficulty of past schedule
Fut = Average power rank of teams yet to be played
F Rk = Ranked difficulty of future schedule.

Estimated Final Record:

I use the power rank, current record, and future opponents to estimate the final record for the team. The net scoring against an average opponent for one team is subtracted from another to determine who is favored and by how many points.

If a team is favored by 14+ points, I assumed that they win 100% of the time.
If a team is favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 80% of the time.
If a teams is favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 60% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 40% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 20% of the time.

It is looking like the NFC wildcard race is going to be a good one, with 5 teams currently projected to tie for the two spots. The AFCN is currently projected to supply both AFC wild cards. Baltimore’s win over Denver a few weeks ago could prove to be problematic for Denver if they can’t recover to take the division from San Diego.

Power Ranking Performance:

Week 1 record – 14-2
Week 2 record – 11-5
Week 3 record – 12-4
Week 4 record – 11-3
Week 5 record – 7-7
Week 6 record – 9-5
Week 7 record – 9-4
Week 8 record – 7-6
Week 9 record – 8-5
Week 10 record – 8-7
Total – 96-48
Missed Last Week – Tn-Buf, NYJ-Jax, Den-Was, Atl-Car, Dal-GB, SD-Phi, NE-Ind

Bad week. 2 of 5 on predicting underdogs (Cin, KC correct). Power ranks have definite limitations picking games. Looking forward to a hopefully more accurate pick generator next season that I hope can correct many of the power ranking limitations.

Enjoy

Bueno en esta entrada no habra fotos por que no tengo ninguna digna de compartir, pero quisiera compartir con mis amigos, lo que eh estado haciendo en los ultimos dias, el viernes pasado modifique por completo mis decks, queria un cambio completo un deck nuevo algo mas interesante salir de lo monotono por asi decirlo y  sin mas tengo que aceptar con la ayuda de mario me anime aunque el no me ayudo a modificar mi deck me animo  ah realizarlo.

Primero busque una combinacion padre de colores  dejandolos a todos en estandar con el fin de participar en algun torneo futuro o algo asi por el estilo sin embargo  aun asi me quede con  un deck extendido  armado y otro a medio armar, hice un deck semi control de 3 colores y el unico que permanecio sin  ningun cambio de momento es el jund, de ahi los decks que me quedaron el monoblanco quedo a medias, el pentacolor en proceso de  rearmado de nuevo aun no decido si sera extendido o estandar.

Bueno esto lo hice por que ya pan con lo mismo me habia cansado y necesita un cambio radical, aun no termino mi proyecto de hacer un deck azul-verde pero casi termino de conseguir la mayoria de las cartas esperemos que todo salga bien

Solo queria expresar mis ideas saludos

Magic, Cel y Laptop  (falto la cena y todo seria perfecto…)

Asi es una entrada mas parece que ya podre tomar un poco el rumbo en lo que escriba ah en esta ocasion pues les traigo una foto de lo que nunca falta en las reuniones de los viernes sabado incluso en dias no programados todo sea por una compra una deuda o una subasta, jajaja como la que se ha de estar llevando acabo en este momento; una subasta de recuperacion  monetaria, espero que todo salga bien para ambas partes.

Como podremos ver no puede faltar un deck, cartas de cambio o incluso tus cartas para presumir lo que tienes y los demas no tienen aun (gino tengo Liliana Vess arte alterno y tu no… ), claro siempre acompañado de nuestro celular para chingar a los que no llegan para avisar que vengan  para encargar  ciertas carta no se para lo que se ofresca escuchar musica presumir tus fotos  que se yo, incluso un buen cel con camara para tomar fotos de cualquier tonteria que se haga y tenemos nuestra fiel acompañante Laptop, que nos sirve para los momentos de ocio un buen  video compartir informacion pero lo mas importante para visitar  las paginas para ver los precios de las cartas jajaja XD

Son las principales cosas que no pueden faltar en nuestras reuniones, aunque tenemos que agregar la cena y las chucherias, los cigarros y  algunas que otras cosillas por ahi pero  estas 3 son las mas importantes las cuales nunca deben de faltar

Bueno me despido en esta ocasion esperando verlos el viernes o sabado ya ni se pero por ahi nos vemos

]]> http://waldo56.wordpress.com/2009/11/15/the-3rd-quarter/ Sun, 15 Nov 2009 00:54:07 +0000 waldo56 http://waldo56.wordpress.com/2009/11/15/the-3rd-quarter/

With the 2nd quarter of the season in the rear view mirror, it is time to look ahead to the 3rd quarter of the season. Winning aside (while important, it is too overarching to evaluate at this level), what sort of goals should the team have in the next phase of the season?

Looking back to my 2nd Quarter Thoughts, some of the goals were achieved, some were not. The running game goals I feel were reached. The outside zone run to the right has become fairly reliable at getting a couple yards, and a second running threat was added, though not who I expected (I thought that Jackson returning from injury would be the man, nice to see Ahman Green though, I always liked him). Adapting the offense to the challenges that they’ve met, and the offensive line goals I feel were not met. The 3rd down defense goals, of weaning the defense off the turnover, I feel was met (we’re currently ranked 4th in the NFL at 34%, 3rd down % is just as good of an indicator of unit quality as scoring, and better than yards surrendered in my opinion). And finally, the rookie class took a big step forward in the 2nd quarter. Clay Matthews took over full time at OLB and has played great, BJ Raji’s playing time and impact has been rapidly increasing, TJ Lang has been a regular on the line and looks like he belongs, and is starting this week, and Quinn Johnson made some nice blocks when he’s been in the game. Brad Jones is about to show what he can do on defense. Jarius Wynn, out with an injury, was the only rookie who is still awaiting that next step.

Settle on An Offensive Line: I know that injuries have played a large role, but they’ve got to settle into a starting lineup to use the rest of the year. TJ Lang seems to be the all purpose fill in. If he is not going to be that any longer (if he gets the starting RT gig for good), somebody should be readied to be an all purpose backup. No shifting in case of injury. Continuity is often just as important as ability when it comes to offensive line play, our lineup is constantly in flux it seems.

Step Through the Door Aaron: I feel that Aaron Rodgers is currently standing in a doorway, the doorway to eliteness. He can see through it, and has done what people in that room are doing at times, but he has not joined that group. Many QB’s get to the point where Aaron is now and go no further. Only a select few QB’s have ever stepped through that door.

Every QB has weaknesses. There is always some natural hitch in their games that they possess. There is no perfect QB. It seems they all follow a similar path too. At first heavy coaching hides their biggest weakness. As they get more comfortable on the field and the rest of their game progresses, that weakness shows up again. The QB will fight that weakness the rest of their career. Some QB’s are able to mentally self coach that tendency of theirs out of them, to keep it at bay.

Brett Favre early on had very bad tunnel vision. His making something out of broken plays was a direct offshoot of that tunnel vision. He continued to fight that tunnel vision throughout his career, and found ways around it. To this day I still believe that Brett makes up his mind on who he is going to throw to prior to the snap, he just changes the guys up and can hide who it is until the toss.

Aaron has the exact opposite problem. He cannot make up his mind at times. He needs to find a workaround for this that works for him. If he can consistently find a way to force himself to make a decision, earlier than he is totally comfortable with, he will step through the door. His all around game is very complete, aside from this one item. QB’s can sit at this stage for a very long time, or forever. Rarely is this a quickly fixed problem. To see Aaron making progress on this particular item, with consistency, will be huge. Much more important I feel than the outcome of the remaining games. But if he does take that step, winning should come much more frequently and easier.

Get Out of the Slump McCarthy: Something is off with Mike. Any creative endeavor, play calling and coaching included, is subject to slumps. It goes with the territory. Offensively Mike is clearly in a slump right now. It is something that creative people always have to fight, they have to find a way out of their creative doldrums that happen from time to time. For Mike, I have no path, only a final goal.

It is hard to put a finger on why he may be in this slump. Part of me says he has partially mentally checked out of the full offense, partially because of the other squads (defense/special teams), and partially because of Aaron, who like I said is at a point where he can step into the group of elites, but isn’t there yet. McCarthy could be doing what he can to prod that step. If it means losing some games, so be it, as long as Aaron takes that step. I get the sense that McCarthy is both calling plays that prod Aaron to make quick decisions (though he hasn’t been), and is calling plays that and giving Aaron a lot of options to become somewhat of his own playcaller on the field. Aaron is struggling with both at the moment, but that isn’t a reason to back it off.

Hopefully though this quarter McCarthy gets back to what he did best. He could run our offense on smoke and mirrors with the best of them. Right now we need some of that magic.

Find a Pass Rush: The defense is doing a lot of things right, they have made a lot of progress since early in the season, but they simply cannot rush the passer. The right side of the line, Clay and Cullen, has largely been doing an acceptable job, but the left side, typically Kampman and Jolly, has been completely ineffective. Kampman is not the rusher he once was, even if we were in a different scheme, and Jolly isn’t much of a rusher. Sadly, the only place where a rush on the left side might come from, is from rookies. As BJ Raji gets more comfortable on the field, he should be able to bring pressure from the DE spot, if not Jarius Wynn did an excellent job during preseason. I would like to see his playing time increase. Brad Jones is going to get a start this week. Hopefully he shows what he did in preseason, that he has a very good speed rush. Dom could possibly add a 3rd and long situational play that sees Brad replace the LDE on the field, either over the G with Kampman over the T or vice versa. As of right now, we are going to continue to struggle with blitzing until a front 4 rusher shows himself to be worthy of a double team.

Stop the Penalties on Special Teams: Overall our team gets a high number of penalties, but neither the offense or defense compare to the special teams group when it comes to flags. It seems that almost every return is accompanied by a yellow hankie. Our special teams units have other problems, namely the lack of a punt returner, a poor punter, and coverage breakdowns, but right now none is more correctable than the flags. The special teams flags have got to stop. A lot of yards are being left on the field because of special teams flags.

Progress in all of these areas in the 3rd quarter will go a long way toward the ultimate sign of progress, the W-L record.

When I look at the coach of the Packers today, I see a guy that I almost don’t recognize anymore. Early on in McCarthy’s tenure it was easy to see that he was one of the more creative offensive minds in the game. Some of the concepts that you see in use elsewhere around the league, McCarthy was on the forefront of the innovation in the NFL, here in Green Bay too. Since 2007, each year it seems that the innovation has declined, to the point where this year, the offense is dead and lifeless with almost no creativity.

Trick Plays: McCarthy early on used to run a good number of trick plays. Fake kicks, punts, unexpected onsides, end arounds, flea flickers, single wing option (AKA “the Wildcat”). Has he called a single trick play this season? It used to be fun, it seemed at least once a game we’d get something early in his tenure. It seems that nobody even remembers McCarthy running the single wing option in ‘07 with Brett and Don. It was ignored in the press at the time (“McCarty being creative”); Sporano in Miami is widely given credit as the innovator of using the formation in the NFL. Remember how often we used to run end arounds with Don? Enough so that we also faked the end around fairly often.

Not that trick plays always work. They don’t work more than they work. But the keep the opposition guessing. When the opposition sees it on tape, they’ve got to talk about it, come up with a way to counter it. Time not spent coming up with ways to shut down Grant and Jennings. On the field the players have to look for it, even if for only a split second. Which slows their reaction, if only slightly. Every now and then though you get an explosive gain out of it. Almost midway through ‘07 when our best looking and seemingly longest running play was a fake punt by Jon Ryan.

Innovative Formations: Sure 5 wides spread, 4+1 WR bunch, 2 FB inverted wishbone, H-Back/dual H-back are not themselves totally new in the NFL, but people were not doing these things, in the form that McCarthy was doing it, in the NFL. Every year we’ve seen something new from McCarthy, aside from this year.

In 2006 the H-Back thing grew out of necessity to protect Brett, being more of a protection scheme than release point. It worked quite well, other teams used their RB’s to do what we were doing with our TE’s, the TE’s did a better job being the QB’s protector. This allowed the RB/FB to release into various routes. The largest man available helped out the kids. Many fans (and the papers) used these “max protect” concepts as a spear to throw at Thompson for his lack of getting free agent guards, but the fact is they worked, and worked quite well. When you see other teams max protect, and us today, you don’t nearly see the effectiveness that we had doing it in 2006.

In 2007 5 wides came into vogue with us. McCarthy actually used the formation in 2006 as a short yardage play, calling it A LOT on the goal line. Robert Ferguson’s last TD as a Packer came from a 5 wide set less than 3 yards from the end zone. New England did something similar to Minnesota in a game in 2006, using a TE and RB on occasion as the split guys, with eye popping effectiveness. Of course the concept is huge in college football right now. In 2007 though, McCarthy morphed the formation with us into something that could be used on any down. And preyed on the fact that our 4th-5th WR was a mismatch in the fast passing game agaisnt their #4/#5 cover guys. Simply put, to stop it every CB has to be able to press. Young players and S’s, especially on primarily zone coverage teams, were simply not that good at playing press coverage. Later on in the season McCarty started running bunch formations with the same personnel. Today we still run this formation on occasion, but it doesn’t seem that it is used for the same thing. It was a play that was deadly effective at gaining a yard or two, and fairly good for 3 to 5. Rarely was anything more picked up, but the occasional broken tackle led to bigger gains. But it led to 3rd down situations that were easily converted with the same play.

In 2007 we also saw the first appearance of the inverted wishbone formation. It was used for running only in 2007. In 2008 we got our first taste of passing out of the formation. Later in 2008 McCarthy did the fairly innovative concept of creating the formation out of motion, with a true FB as one of the spots, and a TE or WR (Jordy) as the other. I actually saw that coming with Jordy on draft day, the guy is perfectly built for the job. We still run it a lot, but really no further innovation has taken place. Sean Payton has borrowed the concept in New Orleans and they run it quite a bit this season, but he’s gone outside the box with the formation moreso than McCarthy. I’ve seen other teams running it as well in spot duty. Credit McCarthy with resurrecting the formation in the NFL, one that had been dead for seemingly decades, but he hasn’t let his creative juices flow with the formation like other coaches have. It has been a good goal line formation for us, but rarely has its potential to be a mismatch nightmare that creates explosive plays been explored. Its like Mike brought it to a point, then stopped tinkering.

Innovative Concepts: Mike has run two concepts that while not unique, the way he ran them seemed to be genius. Namely the slant game and the high tempo offense. The way he did it in GB caused defensive reactions that you don’t often see.

The slant game simply grew out of it being Brett’s best route, and three WR’s that excelled at it. But we ran it so much, over and over and over, that it caused a unique defensive reaction that really opened up the whole offense. Opponents began to fear our slant game so much, that OLB’s would peek on the receivers, safeties would sneak into the outer box / slant zone, OLB’s would regularly drop into slant zones. Even when run blocking, we threw slants. Keying on the line was not an option. The consequence of this of course, this fear of the slant, is that the inner box opened up immensely, LB’s were a step slow; Ryan Grant had great running lanes. The safety coming short, even without a big fear of the run game, put WR’s in single coverage on the outside with no safety help. Of all the run to pass or pass to run concepts, this is almost totally unique. Generally pass to run is to get the S’s to move deeper, to give the CB’s more help. Or in the case of spread type WCO attacks, move wider to help the CB’s, Moving the safety into the box (the outer portion) with the pass is odd to say the least. The effect on the LB’s was really special though. With them so afraid of the slants, they couldn’t blitz, and they opened up the run. After that run in ‘07, this part of our offense really died. Aaron can run it just fine, but goes elsewhere much more. It’s almost like McCarthy didn’t realize what our slant game did, how it opened up everything else. The run game and long pass in ‘07 owed a lot of its effectiveness to the fearsome slant game we got going early in the season. Looking back after the ‘07 season, it seemed absolutely genius. But has simply slipped away now into the past. Opponents still fear our slants, but not to the point of opening up other things like it did.

The high tempo offense is another item that while seen elsewhere, McCarthy’s use was a little odd. The no huddle offense is an NFL staple. But a fast huddle, to the line fast offense, with every play substitutions that caused defensive substitutions, and presnap motion, led to lots of defensive mistakes. Substitution errors, coverage errors, call errors, time outs, penalties, and big plays. The high water point of this concept in my mind was the first half of 2008. We did this with Brett, but it really came alive early on with Aaron. It seemingly left the opponents head spinning on the field. It only came in spurts, a drive here and there. But when it came, it was lethal. But its use has declined to the point of non-use seemingly. We run a standard huddle offense, and a standard no huddle, only in standard no-huddle situations. Presnap motion is still frequently used, but it seems that what I thought was coming, long stretches sustaining this up tempo high substitution offense, something unique (almost Indy offense like in uniqueness), has simply been forgotten and discarded.

One could say that our offenses in years past were built on smoke and mirrors, and in a way that is true, but almost every great NFL offense has some smoke and mirrors going. This season it seems that Mike has given up on that, and is just running a standard conventional offense. And the results have been, disappointing. At one time I viewed Mike as clearly the most innovative and creative offensive mind in the NFL. Just a year ago at this time I wholeheartedly believed it. It seems though somewhere late last season, that died, and it hasn’t come back. Mike’s offense today is simply standard NFL fare, with a little spice from his earlier years. Nothing cutting edge. I used to think that his playcalling was genius. He’d be working to set stuff up all game, and have lots of various things going. On a first watch it was hard to notice, but after 2-3 times watching the game, you could really see his strategy come out. This year there is almost no overriding strategy that I can detect. I just don’t see what he is trying to do anymore.

What happened to Mike McCarthy? It is like part of him died halfway through 2008. The creative offensive mind has been seemingly reduced to a robot.

Today, on an old bookshelf, behind some boxes and things, I found my ancient Where’s Waldo books. All the childhood memories flooded back: flipping through the pages and getting sucked right into the Waldo search, eyes darting back and forth, made me feel exactly like I did back then. It wasn’t just the pure fun of the game (I think this is one of the most well-conceived children’s books) but the comfort in that familiarity, feeling at home in a book; the idea, I guess, that the way our minds work doesn’t change all that much — just the specific thoughts, the circumstances, the problems we have to unravel.

I got to the last page, the Land of Waldos, where everyone is a Waldo except the real one is missing a shoe. This was the one I don’t remember ever solving as a kid, spending what seemed like endless frustrating hours, but who knows what it was in actual time. And today I found him, stripey sock and all. I won’t say it’s instantly easy as an adult, as with most of the Waldos, it’s hard until suddenly you see him and it’s as if he’s been staring you in the face all along. And, well, he has.

There might well be a metaphor somewhere in there, finding ourselves, finding our way, who knows, write your own, I’m not that far yet. All I know is that this made my day.

Y de los diseños anteriores, pronto estaran a la venta:

La muerte de Noé en www.lafraise.com

Caperucita Roja en www.scribtee.com

Sigue buscando (wally) en www.pampling.com

Un saludo!

Calculated Power Rankings, Unit Strength, Strength of Schedule, and Estimated Final Record following week 9 of the NFL season. I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.

Everything is based on correcting the scoring offense and defense of each team for opponents, by calculating the expected scoring against an average opponent, instead of averaging the points scored against the actual opponents played. This allows all teams are evaluated on a level plane. Power is defined as scoring offense minus scoring defense, the list sorted by the net difference.

I run a full season calculation and a most recent 4 weeks calculation and blend them (4:1) to acknowledge change and teams that are hot/cold.

Power Rank:

This week we see a change at the top, with New England taking it from the Saints. New England’s defense has been strong as of late, and the Saints hasn’t been as good. The Broncos take a hit after the loss to the Steelers, their defense has not been the same in the last few games.

Sorry, I can’t explain the Jets. If they don’t belong it’ll fix itself shortly. Miami is still strong. Dallas has been slowly creeping upward throughout the season, and has now solidified it’s place in the top 10.

The Texans are another team not to sleep on. Strong showings as of late on the defensive side of the ball. They are very strong in the change indicator.

Carolina has made some huge strides and dug itself out of the pit. They are above the horrible ledge that was developing, though that ledge is beginning to disintegrate.

Green Bay, Chicago, and Detroit are all free falling, which is dragging Minnesota with them.

Net = Projected net scoring agaisnt an average opponent (PPG)
Off = Projected offensive scoring against an average defense (PPG)
O Rk = Rank of offense
Def = Projected scoring by an average offense against the defense (PPG)
D Rk = Rank of defense
Chg = Difference between data run of most recent 4 weeks and full season (hot/cold) (PPG)
C Rk = Rank of change.

Strength of Schedule:

Instead of using points, or quality opponents, etc, the method that I chose to rank the strength of schedule is the average power rank of opponent played. The current power rank is used and each week the full season recalculated.

Seas = Average power rank of all opponents all season
Prev = Average power rank of teams played thus far
P Rk = Ranked difficulty of past schedule
Fut = Average power rank of teams yet to be played
F Rk = Ranked difficulty of future schedule.

Estimated Final Record:

I use the power rank, current record, and future opponents to estimate the final record for the team. The net scoring against an average opponent for one team is subtracted from another to determine who is favored and by how many points.

If a team is favored by 14+ points, I assumed that they win 100% of the time.
If a team is favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 80% of the time.
If a teams is favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 60% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 40% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 20% of the time.

Power Ranking Performance:

Straight up with no home field advantage.

Week 1 record – 14-2
Week 2 record – 11-5
Week 3 record – 12-4
Week 4 record – 11-3
Week 5 record – 7-7
Week 6 record – 9-5
Week 7 record – 9-4
Week 8 record – 7-6
Week 9 record – 8-5
Total – 88-41
Missed Last Week – Balt-Cin, GB-Tam, KC-Jax, SF-Tn, Den-Pit

COPFACE: Waldo, FL: S/T: CD

So I went up to my local record store on a mission to find some new Florida bands to pummel and belittle on my website.(jk, kind of.) While scourging through the dregs in the new shit bin. The smell of fresh spray paint caught my nostril. Below me stood a perfectly crafted self made CD EP. It had a excellent Xeroxed punk paper cover. Which was slyly wrapped around a sloppily spray painted CD. I wouldn’t have thought twice about it until I noticed this bands address. They are from Waldo, FL.  HOLY FUCK!

If you have ever driven from Jax to Gainesville or vice versa,  you become very familiar with Waldo. Its either the first or the last shitty little town you got to slow down and watch for pigs in.  So the thought of a punk band calling Waldo home was extremely exotic and enticing  to me. Shit these fucks probably have a lot of experience getting harassed and throwing bitching “barn” parties.  Anyways, the band is called COPFACE and they play an Ultra heavy drudge- sludge doom core style of music. They describe themselves as posi-violence. Whatever that is. I would say its like a more slowed down metal DISCHARGE with a gruff/tough guy  hardcore muffled style of singing.  They have moments that I really like and jammed too and I would love to read the lyrics to the last song, “Burritos Are Just Domesticated Tacos.”  I bet these guys are fucking heavy live. I would be totally on their sack but I just don’t like the singing too much but it didnt ruin the experience.  Hell, some punks like the strained yelling that people make when their constipated.  So get your ass of the pot and open your ears, cause Waldos making some death crust noise ! 4 songs RECOMMENDED. (Scottanimo Bay)

WEBSITE: http://www.last.fm/music/Copface

AVAILABLE AT:

COPFACE/Never Give Up
P O Box 436
WALDO, FL
32694

So this year I decided to dress up as “Maverick” from Top Gun.  It was a costume my bro put together last year, using a lot of money and his sick attention for detail.  I’m pretty sure I could have walked on set back in ‘86 and played Cruise’s stunt double since this costume was so spot on.  Mad props Charles.  So the festivities began with a party at my good friend’s (Anthony of “Maine Trip” fame) girlfriends, friend’s, boyfriends house [still with me?] Anyway, it was a night filled with jungle juice, Girl Talk, jump suits and breathalyzers.  Good times for a Goosie Night / Pre-Halloween party.  The next night was spent down in Hoboken.  I made the trip with my sister and a few of her friends who all proved to be rather entertaining throughout the night.  We hung out at Whisky bar on Washington Street, which was a very good choice.  If your ever in Hoboken (which you should be since i’m assuming the majority of my readers are from Jersey), defiantly visit this place.  It’s a nice sized bar with overly attractive bartenders (both of which were “dressed” for the occasion Halloween night [who knew bumblebees could be presented using only a yellow/black bikini top/bottom and little dangley antenna?]  As the night went on, more and more entertaining people entered the establishment, wearing some very interesting costumes.  Some of my favorites included Bruno, Billy Mayes (with Oxyclean), Double Dare Contestants, Grapes, Taylor Swift, Alvin Simon & Theodore, Abraham Lincoln, Waldo,Teen Wolf, and the ever so awesome Carmen Sandiego.  The night was fun, we were graced with the “lame in its awesomeness” music from the cover band Jet-Set Zero.  Cover bands are such a guilty pleasure.  Anyway, about half way through the night, some girl calls me over and asks if I can take a picture with her friend because we “look good together”.  Then she preceded to tell us that we need to get to know each other and peaced, leaving me with this random girl (who actually was kinda cute).  So we chatted and such however, I don’t know if it was the loud atmosphere or her friends thick accent, but I have no recollection of this girls name.  Rita? Ria? Rhianna?  I don’t know.  It’s ok though because, using sick math skills, Tear and I later deducted that she most likely is between the ages of 27-29… figures girl’s to old to remember Nickelodeon’s ”Snick” line up would find me attractive (seriously though, these two kids had Snick based costumes and she had no idea what they were!)  O’ Whisky Bar Girl, you’ve missed out on such amazing programing, like Are You Afraid of the Dark and All That!.  After that the night was pretty straight forward, we got extremely hot pizza at around 1 a.m., saw a fight between Bruno, A Matador, and Billy Mayes, and finally had to fight off disgruntled drunks for the cab we called.  I <3 NJ nights.

Once Again, I’m Clearly the Classy One In the Family

Marry Me Grape Girl! Please?

Stop Following me V

Not Lisetening To Becuase It Sucks: Owl City

With the season at the halfway point, I tallied up all of the stats for all defensive lineman (including 3-4 OLB’s) from the 2009 draft class. This will give an idea of the impact of the class as a whole, and individual positions. For those like me that are draft junkies, it is nice to see a side by side stat comparison of all the prospects that you were looking at.

Defensive Ends / 3-4 Outside Linebacker Body Types:

Sorted by sacks.  Not all of these guys are scheme interchangable.  Brian Orakpo is a 4-3 SOLB that plays rush DE on passing downs.  Clay is clearly the most impactful player of this bunch.

Defensive Tackle / 3-4 Defensive End / Nose Tackle Body Types:

Sorted by tackles.  Not all guys are scheme interchangeable.  Raji isn’t the most impactful rookie of this type, but he is near the top.  He has been the most impactful 3-4 lineman however, though Jacksonville has used some 3-4 sets, and Terrence Knighton has played well in those.  Knighton surely is the biggest “gem” of the draft on the defensive line, thus far.

Some notes on abbreviations:
TTK = Total Tackles
TK = Solo Tackles
Assit = Assisted Tackles
SK = Sacks
STF = Stuffs, tackles for negative yards
TYDL = Total Yards Lost, sum of negative yards on sack plays and stuffs
FF = Fumbles Forced
Int  = Interceptions
Yds = Interception Return Yards
PD = Passes Defended
TD’s = Touchdowns Scored

The annual ritual that around 24 of 32 teams’ fans discuss is upon us. Who gets fired and who earned another year. With the Vikings strongly in command of the NFC North, that time is upon us as Packer fans. What will become of Ted and Mike?

Ted Thompson – Ted has his good points and his bad points. Is his seat warm?

The Favre fiasco was handled poorly, but one has to remember, Ted was in constant communication with the board and higher-ups throughout it. They were well aware of what was going on and certainly had to approve some things. For being a black mark, I’m not so sure that it is as black as many fans make it out to be.

His strong point surely is self scouting. Ted has rarely made a mistake with regards to who to extend and who to let walk. Along with that, his financial management has been top-notch. He has been fair but generous to his players. He rarely signs players to contracts that the teams can’t easily walk away from (aside from rookies, where he sticks to the system).

His drafting has been so so. His high round picks haven’t been stellar, save for a few, but he has made up for it with some strong showings elsewhere. Ted is surely one of the top guys when it comes to undrafted free agents and extracting value from the bottom of the roster. His scouting department is one of the best. Green Bay is typically noted as one team that is always there for every workout, no matter how small.

If Ted has a huge Achilles heel, it is free agency. I understand why he does it that way, how a roster is financially constructed. I actually think that I understand his system. I think Ted and co scout the league, find the team fits, set a $$ point to their tape and projected performance, and offer a visit when the market is giving close to that $$ point. The reason for only offering a visit, which causes many “top” players to look elsewhere, the guys that really want to be there and want to be Packers will come. The others won’t. Weeds out the ones that don’t really want to be there from the get go.

Ted does have a darn good free agency track record, he has hit pretty big, and has few misses of any $$ consequence. But he uses it so sparingly. Which can be viewed as detrimental to the roster construction from a skill perspective and experience perspective.

This is a results business though and his record isn’t stellar yet. Is it bad enough, is he not performing well enough to keep his job?

I say no, Ted stays. It would be hard to move on from Ted unless a top guy such as Parcells becomes available. Ted found a QB, rebuilt the roster and cap, and has an overall pretty talented roster. I don’t think that the board and Murphy would be willing to buy him out and put somebody else in place, unless they had a guy in mind and that guy was out there. I don’t think that Ted gets fired for somebody else in general. This year. He’s coming off of a pretty strong draft.

Mike McCarthy – Many Packer fans however are willing to concede that Mike’s seat is warming up, if not already hot, following the start to this season. Where does he stand?

Mike was hired as a first time head coach, after a single failed year coordinating the worst offense in the league. He did though have a pretty strong run as offensive coordinator in New Orleans prior to that. And he was a noted QB developer. He was a shocking hire at the time. After a 13-3 season his 2nd year, his contract was extended and his future seemed bright.

Since the team moved on from Brett Favre it has seemed stuck in the mud and lost in general at times, despite many strong performances by Aaron. Some not so positive trends have emerged, and what was once seen as a McCarthy strong point, game planning and play calling, is now under fire.

McCarthy’s teams tend to play very sloppy and undisciplined. They are heavily penalized and rarely sustain stretches of consistent play, being very mistake prone. McCarthy is a players coach that rarely will confront a player about issues.

His defenses have been nearly autonomous. Aside from mundane day to day procedural stuff for the whole team, McCarthy seems to interact very little with the defense. His first attempt at a defensive coordinator was a failure, and he is now on his second.

McCarthy is a QB coach and spends the bulk of his effort there. He did a good job turning around Brett Favre’s career, and did a good job developing Aaron Rodgers and Matt Flynn. That is definitely his strong point as a coach.

For a while Mike seemed to be a pretty creative playcaller, and quickly came up with solutions to problems that came up. As of late it seems that much of that has been sapped, he almost seems to ignore problems. His game plans as well have begun to wane in effectiveness over the last few years. His first 15 plays, a WCO staple, rarely work. Despite years of paying lips service to running the ball, he rarely calls runs, when he does, they aren’t very effective.

How he has handled the offensive line however has been very, very concerning. To a point, Ted can only do so much. He has provided a pretty steady supply of offensive lineman for Mike, an average of 2 per year, and all but a couple could play guard or tackle. Mike’s choices have made the line of today. The tackle problems don’t need to exist. He has been supplied adequate talent. Their coaching has been subpar IMO and they took a long time to settle on spots.

One dynamic that isn’t considered much, is how much McCarthy asks for free agents. What parameters for players McCarthy gives Ted. And what McCarthy communicates as his needs to Ted. None of us knows this, we can only speculate, but this is a very important dynamic in the NFL.

Some of McCarthy’s roster decisions have led to good/useful players leaving in lieu of other project players that didn’t play and didn’t prove worth it. It is hard to fault Ted for drafting guys like Clowney, Tollefson, Haynos, Culver, Meredith, and Harris, when they are today contributing in the NFL, and would contribute to our team, when McCarthy decided to let them go at the end of camp (I would think that Ted cedes almost full decision-making at this time to Mike).

Another thing about Mike is that he is a players coach that treats his players like grown men. He is not a rah rah guy that gives fiery speechs, and he relies on his team leaders to do the leading among the team. Mike is not the team leader.

Is Mike’s seat getting warm? I say yes. One problem for him that I see, if Ted is the strategist that I think he is, and wants to keep his job, McCarthy could be in trouble. If Ted’s job is safe, but he has discretion to change head coaches, especially if we fail to make the playoffs this year, changing head coaches is in his best interest. One more bad year and a change is likely to both Ted and Mike. If he gets rid of Mike, he most likely gets a few years with a new coach to try to make it work, though he surely is gone with the coach (if fired). With the number of coaches on the market, Ted could sell his superior on an upgrade to one of the guys on the market, and in doing so attach his fate to a proven head coach. Having a big bank account and a good young QB, Ted has a very attractive opening should he make it happen.

Another hint that could be pointing this way, the roster has a huge amount of leeway currently. The number of guys not under contract next season is staggering. If a new CBA is reached prior to the tag date (drop dead date I believe), something that appears more and more likely by the day, there will be a lot of good free agents on the market, and Green Bay will have deep pockets. Either way, if a new coach is hired, there is a lot of leeway in the roster with guys to keep or get rid of, and the team has a ton of cap space (or useable money if uncapped) to work with.

Lastly, I think that Mike’s job is complete. More than anything at first, Ted needed the finest QB developer to get Aaron ready to replace Brett. While Aaron still has a little to learn, the job of turning a raw prospect into a starting NFL quarterback is complete.

Summary – In summary, I think that Ted’s chance of getting fired is very low, and he could take steps to securing his spot. By firing McCarthy. McCarthy has a very, very hot seat in my opinion, the chances that he is gone if he fails to make the playoffs is very good from my point of view. If Mike makes the playoffs on the other hand, it would be hard for Ted to fire him, and really he would have no reason to.

Calculated Power Rankings, Unit Strength, Strength of Schedule, and Estimated Final Record following week 8 of the NFL season. I use an engineering method of iteratively solving for best fit to the data (scores) to create the ranks and related applications that corrects for opponents played.

Everything is based on correcting the scoring offense and defense of each team for opponents, by calculating the expected scoring against an average opponent, instead of averaging the points scored against the actual opponents played. This allows all teams are evaluated on a level plane. Power is defined as scoring offense minus scoring defense, the list sorted by the net difference.

I run a full season calculation and a most recent 4 weeks calculation and blend them (4:1) to acknowledge change and teams that are hot/cold.

Power Rank:

Atlanta strongly moves up this week rebounding from last week. Previously they were high ranked, often a single bad week will cause an overreaction spike that is quickly corrected. Miami has settled back into at least a somewhat more reasonable position. The delineation between the bad teams and average teams continues, there is a huge drop between team #22 (Seattle) and #24 (KC). This is very odd.

Last year showed a strong trend of defensive powerhouses at the top. This season balanced teams are dominating the top of the poll.

Net = Projected net scoring agaisnt an average opponent (PPG)
Off = Projected offensive scoring against an average defense (PPG)
O Rk = Rank of offense
Def = Projected scoring by an average offense against the defense (PPG)
D Rk = Rank of defense
Chg = Difference between data run of most recent 4 weeks and full season (hot/cold) (PPG)
C Rk = Rank of change.

Strength of Schedule:

Instead of using points, or quality opponents, etc, the method that I chose to rank the strength of schedule is the average power rank of opponent played. The current power rank is used and each week the full season recalculated.

Seas = Average power rank of all opponents all season
Prev = Average power rank of teams played thus far
P Rk = Ranked difficulty of past schedule
Fut = Average power rank of teams yet to be played
F Rk = Ranked difficulty of future schedule.

Estimated Final Record:

I use the power rank, current record, and future opponents to estimate the final record for the team. The net scoring against an average opponent for one team is subtracted from another to determine who is favored and by how many points.

If a team is favored by 14+ points, I assumed that they win 100% of the time.
If a team is favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 80% of the time.
If a teams is favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 60% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 0 and 7 points, I assumed that they win 40% of the time.
If a team is not favored between 7 and 14 points, I assumed that they win 20% of the time.

Power Ranking Performance:

Week 1 record – 14-2
Week 2 record – 11-5
Week 3 record – 12-4
Week 4 record – 11-3
Week 5 record – 7-7
Week 6 record – 9-5
Week 7 record – 9-4
Week 8 record – 7-6
Total – 80-36
Missed Last Week – Det-StL, Phi-NYG, Balt-Den, Tn-Jax, GB-Mn, Ari-Car

Where’s Waldo:…

in cooperation wit…

By Mikey Hunau & Anna…

Book Preview

This may have been my best con ever. Waldo and I took the Promenade on 3rd Street! But some damn photographer kept catching up with me, hot on my tail! No sooner had I looted an unsuspecting shop or vendor, when I’d see, out the corner of my eye, a pointed finger and a flashing bulb.

But there’s no catching Carmen Sandiego. I would have made off with considerable more loot had it not been for Waldo. He didn’t turn out to be such a hot escort…. He kept disappearing! Wandering off, like the spacey tourist he is. I’d make a run for it, and when I was in the clear…I’d see him looking every which way, clearly lost and utterly clueless. Well, what can you do.

We did escape the clutches of our pursuers sure enough, but it was a close call! But wouldn’t you know, in lieu of catching the culprit, the stinkin’ paparazzi are trying to make a profit off their pirated photos! So, I guess the upside is: you can follow the mad chase yourself if you like….just check it out at Blurb.com.

Well, Happy Halloween.

–C

SO IT’S FINALLY HALLOWEEN. HALLOW WEENIE. ALL HALLOW’S EVE. Tonight, it is socially acceptable for a grown male to entice children to his doorstep and give them candy. I’m going as Waldo, and, just like I did in school yesterday, I am expecting to get many “I FOUND YOU!” comments. Oh well, it’s the price I will pay for having a totally awesome costume. Enjoy your night everyone!

In the last few months, I’ve seen occasional chatter related to this subject, most notably appearing as “insiders – rumblings” type things where a writer cites an unnamed source such as a scout that Raji is being used wrong by the Packers. Is this true? Thus far we’ve seen Raji used as both backup LDE, backup NT, and the extra big man in short yardage/goal line defense. His time at backup LDE has been the full responsibilities of the backup LDE, including play in sub package (pass) defense where the NT comes off the field. Most of his work has been confined to the LDE role and nickel work that goes with it.

What is Raji?

I think that the incorrect evaluation of Raji goes back to at least the senior bowl by a majority of armchair scouts and talking heads. The fact is that Raji was not a NT. He had the ht-wt combo that people latched onto that said NT, but that was not his use in college (Ron Brace had that role), and really was not the way he played. He has all the physical measurements that you would look for out of an elite NT in the NFL, but he is a project there that is a few years away from full time point play.

Raji had lots of highlight reel plays in college, and was unblockable in 1 on 1’s at the senior bowl. Almost every eye popping thing he did was related to the pass. Being a good run stuffer doesn’t get a guy drafted in the top 10. Being a good pass rusher does. And Raji can rush the passer, while being a true A gap tackle, like no other. Most DT’s that can rush the passer are under tackles; 1 on 1 tackles that line up over the guard and shoot the B gap or counter through an A gap. They are not built to control 2 gaps while a run double is applied, often they struggle to control 2 gaps even in a 1 on 1 situation.

What Kind of Defense Does Green Bay Play?

If you have watched the team closely this year you would know that formation has been a very fluid thing. This is not like a rigid 4-3 where the same 4 guys line up on the line all game with a little interior rotation. The Packers have played a 1-5-5, 2-5-4, 2-4-5, 3-3-5, 3-4-4, 3-5-3, 4-4-3, 5-2-3 at various points thus far this season, but the overall bulk of plays have fallen into a 2-4-5 and related variants (1-5-5, 3-3-5, 2-5-4) and a 3-4-4 and its variants (3-5-3). The 4-4-3 and 5-2-3 have been used on the goal line and for short yardage.

There has been a fairly even split in use between the 2-4-5 and its variants (base pass defense) and the 3-4-4 and its variants (base run defense) thus far. One of the truths of football is that the better your offense, the better your pass defense has to be (a reason that the Colts have been bottom dwellers in run defense for a long time, yet win a lot of games, their pass defense is typically quite good), as opponents will have to pass to beat you, running cannot score fast enough. On 3rd down, the down when the defense gets off the field, a form of pass defense is almost always used.

Where Does Raji Fit In?

At first when the switch was announced, many fans were panic stricken that Pickett couldn’t handle all the snaps at the nose, or even handle it period. Last year one of the “problems” with the defense that people seemed to agree on, was that the defensive tackles had a subpar rotation and they “wore down”, especially Pickett. Very few fans, and no reporters, realized just how much pass defense the team would use, and how it differed from the base 3-4 defense. The rotation issue has solved itself, Pickett has seen between a 33% and 50% reduction in the number of snaps that he is playing, and he is playing virtually every 3-4 down. There is absolutely no need to rotate him.

Another problem was that Pickett really didn’t have a backup on the roster. Cole had the body, but had never shown to be much of a player in the A gaps. His place was as a pretty stout tackle when lined up over a G in a 3 tech position. But he was no match for a double team. On the practice squad was Anthony Toribio, a guy lacking the body but having the style to be effective in the A gaps. Miami was developing him as a NT, Ted stole him during a roster maneuver (a counter action by an angry Parcells led to Lansanah being elevated and White released). Toribio was a pleasant surprise for me this summer and I was utterly shocked that he was not claimed after cuts, he reminds me of a poor mans Ratliff.

The fact that some thought that Pickett couldn’t handle it, that others thought that 2 NT’s in rotation were needed, the other thoughts that Pickett would be OK and nothing special, and the predraft assessment that Raji was a NT (and day 1 ready there) made Raji a no brainer pick for Green Bay. This is such a broken logic train, but yes, follow that logic train and Raji is out of position and GB is using him wrong. Numerous people are probably scratching their head, why isn’t Raji replacing Pickett? Why is he an end? He isn’t built like an end, who are typically 6′5″ with very long arms, around 300 lbs with a fairly lean build. Raji is 6′2″, 340 lb, with short arms and fat squatty build, what you look for in a NT.

Ted and the coaches really don’t discuss why they make certain picks and what they see as their future. Let me go back to an earlier statement that I made though. Run stuffers are not top 10 picks. If you notice the ratios, at least 66%+ of the snaps against our 3-4 and variants are runs, 66%+ of the snaps against our 2-4 and variants are passes. Raji from day 1 was a much better pass rusher than run stuffer, he excelled rushing the passer in college.

One of the realities of the 53 man roster is the cross training that must be done to back every position up.

Coming off an injury, and still learning his way, Raji’s snap count is surely down relative to what it will eventually be. Thus far he has been rotating mostly at LDE and that is it. But he has seen a couple of NT snaps. You couldn’t as for a better backup NT and he is a solid backup DE. But….

The 3-4 set is not Raji’s place, at least for many years. Raji is a pass rusher. Once he slows down a little and loses some of his explosion, a step down to 3-4 NT is definitely in the cards, possibly even a little before that if needed. But a man with interior pass rushing ability like his should not be exiled to mostly run downs.

You could not ask for a better 2-4 interior lineman than Raji. In 2-4 sets the 5 tech DE alignment is rarely, if ever, used. You do see a variance of alignments, but the two interior guys tend to align anywhere between 3 tech and 0 tech. One of them will almost always be a little wide at 3 tech, looking for a good 1 on 1 angle to the QB. Sometimes both are this way, sometimes the second lineman with be inside more in an A gap or over the C in an effort to control interior rushing. The second lineman is typically one of two types; not much of a pass rusher, but a run stout guy, however more mobile and a better rusher than the NT, or a good pass rusher that makes the 2-4 set vulnerable to the run. In a 2-4 (or variance) set, there is no man more valuable than a guy that is run stout, that can play the A gaps and eat doubles, while still excelling at rushing the passer. And when your offense is good, really your 3rd down/pass defense should be looked at as your base defense, not your run defense. It will be used as much or more as your run defense, and it is more important to winning games.

So Are We Using Raji Wrong?

No, the problem is that few recognize what right is. Right is not at NT 3-4 (run) sets, which is viewed currently as “starting” and more prestigious, where he is a good backup (and would be a good starter), but his talents would be relatively wasted. Right is at DT in 2-4 set (pass) set, where he can control the middle and still terrorize QB’s. Thus far he has not fully come into that role, being a rotational guy with Jolly, but he has been splitting that job with Jolly.

This will naturally sort itself out as well. He will likely sub in for Jolly more and more on pass downs, and less and less on run downs. Jolly is built to be a better 3-4 DE, and thus far, has been. Raji is built to be a better 2-4 DT, and over time, as he steals snaps from Jolly, he will rotate less and less with Jolly at DE. I suspect by the end of the season we will see very little of Jolly on passing downs, both he and Pickett will come off as the nickel DB goes in, and Raji goes in as well. In the NFL, that is where Raji’s talents will blossom first. Jolly simply isn’t built to excel in a 2-4 set like Raji is.

With time Raji’s head will swim less as it relates to what OL’s are doing to him, then he will really start to take off. Right now he is a little hobbled, and in the midst of rookie defensive lineman syndrome. One thing I’ve noticed over the years, the skill position players tend to hit a wall later their rookie year, the lineman, especially defensive, play their best at the end of the year. There reaches a point where it just clicks for them, and they get much better seemingly overnight.

For Halloween, Sister has decided to dress up like Waldo from Where’s Waldo. It’s a rather simple and economical costume to pull off. She has taken certain items from her own wardrobe and then found any missing pieces to complete the look, except for the hat. So, Sister asked me to crochet her a similar Waldo hat and this is what I came up with…

I think it came out pretty well for a handmade creation done rather quickly, if I do say so myself. The red brim can be adjusted to be as wide or narrow as one needs or rolled to better mimic Waldo’s hat. I also have it sitting rather far down on my head but that can be adjusted as well. What do you think… it works for Waldo? And, it will keep Sister warm!

I finally finished my Dreadnaught! Below are reversed steps of how i built it.

Finished product:

The tread tracks, both completed and not

The first arm

The first arm, while still drying.

The main body. This is a bad angle, but on the top I used Memory’s technique for the bolts on top.

The main body, before painting.

Also, I was painting a boy, when, while painting a red stripe on a boy, when I got an idea. I call him: Wazgo

Can you find him?:

here is a closer look:

Here he is: