Me refiero a que si os parece bien dar dinero a una ONG o simplemente a un mendigo en la calle.

Este es un tema dificil. Solemos decir: Son unos vagos, viven mejor que nosotros con lo que se sacan, cuanto dinero realmente llega al destino, etc. Es posible que todas estas dudas esten fundadas pero ¿entonces que hacemos? Pues como hay gente desalmada que se queda con el dinero que donamos a las ONGs, entonces ¿ya nos olvidamos de que hay gente que se muere de hambre en el mundo?

A mi me suena a excusa. Es la forma que tenemos de justificarnos a nosotros mismos. Es mejor que decir: “podria haberle dado este euro a ese desgraciado que pide en la calle pero prefiero tomarme una caña”. Como siempre, los humanos somos egoistas. Por eso quiero homenajear al Sr. Warren Buffet y al Sr. Bill Gates que es verdad que son los mas ricos del mundo pero tambien son muy generosos por haber donado inmensas fortunas a su Fundacion para obras de caridad.

Från boken “How Buffett Does It: 24 Simple Investing Strategies from the World´s Greatest Value Investor” av James Pardoe kan vi läsa följande rubriker:

1 Choose Simplicity over Complexity
2 Make Your Own Investment Decisions
3 Maintain Proper Temperament
4 Be Patient
5 Buy Businesses, Not Stocks
6 Look for a Company That Is a Franchise
7 Buy Low-Tech, Not High-Tech
8 Concentrate Your Stock Investments
9 Practice Inactivity, Not Hyperactivity
10 Don´t Look at the Ticker
11 View Market Downturns as Buying Opportunities
12 Don´t Swing at Every Pitch
13 Ignore the Macro, Focus on the Micro
14 Take a Close Look at Management
15 Remember, The Emperor
16 Practice Independent Thinking
17 Stay within Your Circle of Competence
18 Ignore Stock Market Forecasts
19 Understand “Mr. Market” and the “Margin of Safety”
20 Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful
21 Read, Read Some More, and Then Think
22 Use All Your Horsepower
23 Avoid the Costly Mistakes of Others
24 Become a Sound Investor

Jag har ännu inte köpt denna bok, (det blir nästa investerarbok att inhandla!), men bara av rubrikerna känner man visdomen från denna världens bäste investerare. T.ex. var tålmodig och praktisera “inaktivitet” istället för “hyperaktivitet” är något som jag vill bli bättre på. Vidare att göra egna beslut och inte lyssna för mycket på experterna är intressant. Någon som läst boken? Är den bra?

“In looking for someone to hire, you look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence, and energy. But the most important is integrity, because if they don’t have that, the other two qualities, intelligence and energy, are going to kill you.”

(citat fra bogen The Tao of Warren Buffet) http://lawsofsimplicity.com/

A McLane do Brasil, um dos melhores integradores de soluções logísticas do País, está investindo na construção ecoeficiente de seus centros de distribuição. A iniciativa sustentável começou com a obra de expansão do centro de distribuição localizado em Canoas (RS), concluída em fevereiro de 2009, e teve continuidade com a atual ampliação do CD de Resende (RJ) e a construção de um novo CD, em Jundiaí (SP). No total, foram investidos cerca de R$ 80 milhões.

Entre as ações que fazem parte deste projeto estão a otimização da luz solar para iluminação interna da companhia com domus acrílicos e o reaproveitamento da água da chuva, que prevê a coleta, filtragem e estocagem da água para sua reutilização em vasos sanitários, irrigação de jardins e lavagem de veículos. Por fim, a empresa se preocupou em realizar a recompostagem do lixo produzido. Recursos estes que devem alcançar ganhos significativos para a McLane na economia de água e energia.

Além de preservar o meio ambiente e economizar em muitos aspectos, o objetivo da companhia ao assumir este compromisso com a sustentabilidade é poder refletir os retornos positivos para seus clientes. Empresas como a Natura, já desfrutam dessa infra-estrutura sustentável e compartilham dos benefícios de um projeto consciente.

Sobre a McLane do Brasil

A McLane do Brasil é um dos melhores integradores de soluções logísticas no País. A empresa é subsidiária da americana McLane, do grupo Berkshire Hathaway que pertence ao investidor Warren Buffet. A companhia iniciou suas atividades no Brasil em 1997 e oferece serviços inteligentes como Supply Chain Strategy (estratégia de toda a cadeia de abastecimento), Supply Chain Design (desenho da cadeia de abastecimento), armazenagem, soluções customizadas, transporte, gestão integrada da malha logística, logística internacional e operação de Centros de Distribuição.

É responsável pela movimentação anual de milhões de toneladas de produtos de empresas como Samsung, Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Natura, Cadburry, Hershey’s, Panasonic, Pioneer, Avon, M.Officer, Hasbro, Carrier, Harley Davidson, entre outras.

Nos Estados Unidos, a companhia foi fundada em 1894 e opera com 37 centros de distribuição servindo o mercado de consumo.

Para mais informações acesse www.mclaneco.com.br.

PLANIN Worldcom – Assessoria de Imprensa e Comunicação da McLane do Brasil

Disclaimer: This is a general guideline for earning in a stock market for long-term. Intraday is a risk which I rarely take. And the opinion in the post is my personal opinion, and not a hard and fast rule for achievement in market.

I started investing in the stock market a few years back. And with the results, I am quite happy.

People say that no one has ever earned anything in the stock market. I beg to differ. Fools have surely not managed it, but wise guys have. I do not wish to implicate that I am wise in this matter, but there are people, like Warren Buffet, Rakesh Jhunjunwalla, who have always shown wisdom.

My idea about it is, if the value of the stock is increasing, then surely someone is making profit out of it, else the prices would keep on going down. So why not that person be you or me?

A little wise decisions, and we all could make decent money in stock.

Some rules :

1. Carry out day trading for around 3 months, and find out the average at the end. You will find that you have lost overall. Or gained some amount which was not worth the risks taken. So  my advice is, do not go in for day trading. Believe me, only your broker is earning, not you!!

2. Again the caution, do not go for day trading.

3. But if you still insist here are the some guidelines :

a. Never, never ever, do short selling(selling if you do not have holding). You ‘might’ earn something but in majority of the times you end up losing a huge amount. The risk in short selling is that you have to finish your trade by buying at day end, else you may have to pay up huge penalties. So be ready with the amount which you want to book losses for. Short selling can be done if you have holding in a script and its making some good profit. That way you can sell at a price, and book profit if the price goes down, or you can always be in profit if you let go of the holding.

b. If you do normal buy for as sell later, you can always hold it if the value goes down. But be sure you want to hold that script.

c. Do not believe in tips by brokers. These tips are meant to increase the turnover at their terminals. Trust in your instincts.

4. So you decided not to go in intraday trading. First rule, read. Stay informed about happenings in the market and overall business conditions. It will give an indication of which company is healthy and in position to give good returns. In long-term point of view, it’s always good to invest in a company with good expansion/diversification plans.

5. Do not panic. If your script goes down, always say to yourself, ‘never mind, its long-term investment and it will come up’. In a down market, you can always pick up more stock of the same script to average out your investments. After all you have done some study on the company. Never sell a long-term investment for loss, if you really do not need the cash immediately.

6. Fix your target price. And get out of the stock when the target is achieved. Do not become greedy if the target is achieved. A sudden downfall, can make you wait for some more years to get to that level.

7. Never buy entire quantity of stock all at one time. I always buy half the quantity and stay satisfied. If the price comes down, I can buy more and average out.

8. Many of the stocks double their value in quite a short period. In such cases, take out the investments that you have made. You will be left with the quantity which has only the brokerage as the invested amount. Nearly free.

9. A company with good physical assets and long-term business, is much more lucrative than a fly by night operator whose profits have shot up in a very short span of time after entering market.

10. Look out for the promoters stake. Ideally for any promoter, to run his business, the stakes should be around 30 to 70 %. The promoter is thus confident of getting good returns himself if the business is good and its benefits are passed out to shareholders.

11. Never take loans to invest in stock. You will be looking for a return amount, somewhere more than your investment plus the loan interest. This situation might not materialise. Try to invest only the spare cash in hand as much as possible.

12. Don’t go by the promises made by a company. Look into the dedication of the company towards achiving those promises.

13. Spare a minimum amount to play an uncalculated game. Hold a large quantity of few penny stocks, as they come cheap, but might give good returns. Such case has happened in India when people had a holding of a particular script(the name I do not reveal, as I do not intend to advertise a particular script) for few years at its face value but it gave them returns by thousand times, yes thousand times!!

14. Diversify. Go into many a fields during investment. Stocks follow a cyclic trend wherein a certain industrial sector goes up at one time while some other industrial sector goes down. Thus your investments will be balanced against the possible dowfall of a particular sector.

There are lot more. But in the end if you start taking all of them in to consideration, you may not be able to markout good stocks for investments, as many guidlines will contradict each other. So use your brains, not mine, not the experts’.

And be always satisfied with your returns.

Oi amigos, tudo bem?

Um assunto muito importante para o investidor é o risco. É muito importante que o investidor entenda muito bem esse conceito para tomar as melhores decisões para investir e assim equilibrar a rentabilidade e o risco.

Tradicionalmente o conceito de risco é relacionado à possibilidade de perda de dinheiro nos investimentos. Considera-se que o investimento seguro é aquele que tem pouca possibilidade de perda de capital, como por exemplo caderneta de poupança ou fundos de renda fixa.

Investimentos arriscado são considerados aqueles em que há uma maior probabilidade de perdas do dinheiro investido. Por exemplo: ações, opções, fundos multimercado, moeda estrangeira, ouro, entre outros. Alguma pessoas consideram que investir em imóveis é uma alternativa bastante segura, pois os imóveis geralmente se valorizam ao longo do tempo além de poder gerar renda proveniente de aluguéis, mas eles podem causar grandes prejuízos também, por isso, classifico-os como arriscados.

Esse tipo de classificação é adequado para a maioria das pessoas já que elas tem pouca educação financeira. A maior parte das pessoas não conhece muito sobre investimentos e deveria evitar aplicar grande parte de seus recursos em ativos de risco.

Mas para aqueles que tem um maior conhecimento financeiro eu proponho um tipo diferente de classificação. Pra mim, o risco do investimento é inversamente proporcional ao seu grau de conhecimento sobre aquele tipo de investimento. Minha definição de investimento arriscado para o investidor com inteligencia financeira é a seguinte:

Investimento arriscado é aquele que você não conhece, é aplicar dinheiro naquilo que você não sabe investir. Por exemplo: Se você é um especialista em imóveis residenciais, devido ao seu conhecimento na área, os riscos de você ter alguma perda são menores, já que você sabe como escolher um bom imóvel. Então o investimento em imóveis passa a ser um investimento de baixo risco. Agora, se você tentar investir em outro tipo de ativo, ou mesmo em um tipo de imóvel que você não conhece, como por exemplo os imóveis comerciais, isso passa a ser uma operação mais arriscada, já que você não sabe bem o que está fazendo.

O mesmo vale para os outros tipos de investimentos: Se você é um perito em ações de alta liquidez, você pode achar investimentos com alto potencial de ganho e pequeno potencial de perdas, e assim lucrar em períodos de alta ou de baixa. Agora se esse mesmo especialista decidir investir em imóveis, ou mesmo em algum tipo de ação que não conhece, como as ações de menor liquidez, o risco aumenta devido à ignorância financeira.

Resumindo: IGNORÂNCIA = RISCO

Vou dar um exemplo muito simples. Você acha que dirigir é arriscado? A resposta é… depende do motorista. Se for uma pessoa que nunca dirigiu um carro, pode ser uma atividade extremamente perigosa e potencialmente fatal. Se o motorista for uma pessoa experiente e cuidadosa é uma atividade com riscos baixíssimos. Por esse motivo que é necessária uma carteira de habilitação que comprove que a pessoa tem condições de dirirgir um carro.

Em seu livro Investimentos: Os Segredos de George Soros e Warren Buffet o autor Mark Tier dizem que Mestres de investimentos como George Soros e Warren Buffet definem muito bem o seu campo de atuação no mercado financeiro e restringem seus investimentos à ativos que eles conhecem.

Warren Buffet diz que a coisa mais importante em termos do seu círculo do competência não é o tamanho da área em que você atua, mas com que precisão você define o seu perímetro.

Recentemente pudemos ver um exemplo claro de como investir sem conhecimento pode ser arriscado. Milhares de pessoas investiram no mercado de ações sem conhecer esse tipo de investimento e tiveram grandes perdas ao segurar suas ações e verem a cotação caindo cada vez mais.  O problema não é o mercado em baixa, o problema é você não saber o que fazer quando suas ações caírem. Ao mesmo tempo em que milhares de pessoas perdiam seu dinheiro com a queda acentuada nas bolsas, algumas outras ganhavam muito, pois sabiam como agir naquela situação.

Faça como os Mestres de investimentos e estude muito bem antes de investir seu dinheiro. Invista em ativos que você conhece, por mais atraentes que alguns outros ativos possam parecer.

Clique no livro para acessar o site da livraria.

Um grande abraço!!

Coach

“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently.

-Warren Buffet

As far as I know, Miley Cyrus and Taylor Swift do not hate each other. In fact, they appear to be on rather friendly terms in this YouTube video. At one point, Miley even referred to Taylor as her “best friend.”*

*Although, to be fair, she’s also applied that term to her dad, Nick Jonas, her YouTube talk-show co-host Mandy Jiroux, Liam Henson, the “Leslie” of “See You Again,” and, of course, God. Miley may have more “best friends” than any pop star in history.  

So there is no obvious enmity between the two of them, but I feel like there should be. It seems to me that there should be a Highlanderesque, there-can-only-be-one vibe to their relationship. There can be no peaceful coexistence between these two stars.

From where I sit, these two are completely interchangeable. They’re both young singers who sing bad country-infused pop songs about what kind of shoes they wear. They both sing primarily for a vast audience of girls between the ages of 11 and 19. They both dated a Jonas Brother. They’re both from small towns. They’re both (ostensibly) wholesome. They both play the “gosh-I’m-just-so-overwhelmed-by-all-this-attention-since-I’m-from-a-modest-small-town” card, even though they’ve each spent over 25% of their conscious lives as superfamous sensations.

This seems like it should create a natural rivalry. And yet, even with a music media that loves pitting artists against each other unnecessarily (Britney vs. Christina, *NSYNC vs. Backstreet Boys, The Beatles vs. The Rolling Stones, Kanye West vs. 50 Cent), not very much has been made of these two as potential rivals. In fact, most people don’t seem to consider them very similar at all.

It’s a hard claim to prove, but it seems obviously true to me that people generally like Swift more than Cyrus. The reason why this is a tricky point to make is that it seems almost irrelevant. For one, they are both very popular. Miley Cyrus’ Hannah Montana 2/Meet Miley Cyrus sold almost 2.5 million copies in 2007, and her first sans Hannah solo record, Breakout, debuted at #1 last year. Taylor Swift sold over four million albums last year alone. Trying to determine which of them is more popular is kind of like trying to figure out if Bill Gates is richer than Warren Buffet, or vice versa: They’re both doing very well.

Another complication to the claim is that, like comparing the fabulously wealthy, at such stratospheric levels of fame, the differences in “popularity” become hard to precisely quantify. Pretty much everyone is aware of both Miley Cyrus and Taylor Swift. Some are fans of one. Some of the other. Some of both. Some of neither. Some are indifferent. Some people kind of like “Party in the USA” and “See You Again,” but really like “You Belong with Me.” Some people don’t really like Miley, but haven’t heard enough of Taylor’s music to make a judgment. Etc. Suffice to say, comparing their popularity is complicated.

So I guess I’m not trying to make a quantitative claim about popularity; I’m more concerned with their cultural status.

A celebrity’s “cultural status” is the value they have to us—the common folk—as public entities. For example, if I say something like, “Man, I hate my boss. He’s dumber than Lindsay Lohan!” then you know to think, Oh, he thinks his boss is really stupid, because Lindsay Lohan is perceived to be a very dumb celebrity, despite the fact that I myself know little to nothing about Ms. Lohan, and certainly not enough to make a proper assessment of her intelligence. Similarly, if I say, “That guy’s girlfriend is trashier than Paris Hilton,” then you’ll (accurately) conclude that Wow, his girlfriend is VERY trashy. I’m not saying these perceptions are inaccurate, just that their accuracy is secondary to the signals they’re supposed to send.

Somehow, despite all of their similarities, Miley Cyrus and Taylor Swift send totally different signals. Taylor Swift is generally perceived to be innocent, sincere, sweet, kind, naïve and down-to-Earth. Miley Cyrus, however, is perceived to be a vapid, slutty, shallow, ignorant, oblivious product of the Disney machine, who doesn’t deserve her fame. So, despite the fact that they both have their songs played on the radio at a similar rate, and they both regularly perform on TV, Swift is better-liked than Cyrus; people view her much more favorably. In fact, one website voted Miley the worst celebrity role model of 2009. The worst! She finished ahead of Kanye West, for fuck’s sake!  

I’m not saying that there aren’t reasons for this. If you Google “Miley Cyrus controversy,” you will get results about Miley stripping, pole-dancing, making fun of Asians, making fun of gays, taking inappropriate photographs for magazines, and not dressing her sister appropriately for Halloween (as if that is somehow her responsibility). If you Google “Taylor Swift controversy,” you will pretty much only get stories about Kanye—a controversy in which Swift was the most innocent of victims.

The problem with this logic, however, is that all of Miley’s “controversies” are pretty mild in actual fact. Her “stripping” photos didn’t reveal anything that wouldn’t be revealed in a bathing suit (not that I’ve ever seen them or anything). Contrastively, Vanessa Hudgens had multiple photos leaked of her naked, and her reputation is more or less intact, despite appealing to the same crowd (although she did do “Sneakernight,” for which I would forgive War Crimes). Her “pole-dancing” really stretches the definition of “pole-dancing”—it’s more like “dancing in the vicinity of a pole.” Compare her “pole dance” with this one, for example. The worst thing she did was take some stupid pictures making fun of “Asian eyes,” but it’s not like Taylor Swift hasn’t taken some stupid racially insensitive pictures of her own. They’re young girls; they do stupid things—we can let these things go.

It’s not really true, then, that Miley’s behavior has been so deplorable. People are just more keen, for some reason, to latch onto her peccadilloes than they latch onto Swift’s. This is really an effect of our different perceptions of the two figures, not its cause.

To get at the root of the issue, I decided to turn to the only die-hard Taylor Swift fan I know: my sister. My sister has been right on occasion, and I figured she was closer to the situation, so I asked her why people like Swift more than Cyrus. She said a lot of things, including “Miley’s obvs a skank,” and “I hate her,” but she said at least one thing that seemed relevant: “Taylor just seems very genuine and honest. I just think it’s a quality that she has, where you just want to protect her.”

This seems pretty clearly true: It’s hard to come up with a public figure who is seen as more wholesome and innocent than Taylor Swift. Why? Part of this perception comes from her lyrics. The fact that she writes her own songs—and is often very forthcoming about what (and who) inspired a song—seems to point to a heart-on-her-sleeve vulnerability.

Of course, Miley Cyrus writes most of her own songs as well.* That qualifier of “most,” though, is very important. A few weeks ago, Cyrus gave an interview in which she was asked which Jay-Z song she had in mind in “Party in the USA” (for those unfamiliar with the song, one of the lyrics simply goes: “And a Jay-Z song was on, and a Jay-Z song was on…”). Her response: “I don’t know. I didn’t write the song.” She also went on to say that she had “never heard a Jay-Z song” and that she “doesn’t listen to pop music.”**

*Although I suspect most people don’t buy that her input in the creative process is all that substantive.

**The fact she used “pop music” to describe Jay-Z upset some people, but to me it just signals that she was using “pop” broadly, in a way that would comprise most “popular” acts. But the fact that she was using the broad definition and STILL claimed not to listen to pop music is very intriguing. I like to think that when Miley’s in private, she listens exclusively to experimental jazz and math rock, but she probably just means country music.

Now, a lot of people didn’t like this answer. Some even called it “self-destructive.” At first, even I was unsettled. But really, why? It’s not a secret that she didn’t write the song. For some, this is somehow a sign of dishonesty. But that’s fucking ridiculous. “Party in the USA” is literally a song about partying in the USA. There is no other way to interpret it. That sentiment is so broad and inclusive that no one writer can have domain over it. Accusing someone of being dishonest for singing it without writing it is like accusing someone of dishonesty because they didn’t write the Happy Birthday song. It’s not a song about Miley’s personal taste; Jay-Z and Britney are picked because they are popular acts (who happened to have tours and albums coming up when the song was released) who are likely to be played at parties in the USA.

What I suspect upset people the most is how honest she is in her answer. She doesn’t stammer or stutter or feel trapped by the question; she just tells the truth, because she doesn’t find it embarrassing. People are disturbed by this frank admission of something pop stars aren’t supposed to admit: that their songs are not personal expressions, but embodiments of clichés.

One of the more interesting, if unknown (for good reason, it’s a bad song), Miley Cyrus songs is “East Northumberland High.” The song is basically about a high school sweetheart she has outgrown. The refrain goes, “Just because I liked you back then/Doesn’t mean I like you now.” When this song came out, she was 14. In other words, she was singing a song about someone she had grown apart from after high school before she would have completed her first year of high school. The fact that the song is so obviously not true for the singer matters less than the fact that it expresses some simple sentiment that an audience can relate to.

Even the songs she writes are like this. She was writing songs about guys who fail to notice her and hanging out with her girlfriends while she was a star of one of the most popular shows on TV. This would be like me writing an album of songs about what it’s like to grow up in the African wilderness.

The fact that Cyrus is so obvious about this disconnect—that she doesn’t even try to hide it—must bother some people. It makes them feel like she is disingenuous, or even manipulative. At the very least, it makes them feel like she is a pawn of the Disney company or Hollywood Records, who could easily be replaced by some other pre-teen with a mediocre voice and a fetish for Jesus.

On the other hand, Swift’s songs strike people as much more personal because they seem to actually describe her life. But it’s a little silly to claim that her songs are any less generic than Miley’s. Cyrus has a song about partying in the USA; Swift has one about a boy she likes. Cyrus has a song about a girls’ night out; Swift has one about a really bad breakup. The fact that some of the stories Swift writes about are based on her actual experiences only obscures this fact—just because you were once in love doesn’t make the line “you’ll be the prince and I’ll be the princess” any less bland. 

It’s also just as absurd for Swift’s fans to get the impression from her songs that her life is like theirs. It’s true that some of her songs were written prior to her fame, but in the last four years, her life has changed radically. She’s dated a Jonas Brother and someone from “Twilight.” For many of her fans, that probably seems like a perfect fantasy world.

I’m not trying to say that Cyrus and Swift are trying to deceive their fans or pretend that they are something they’re not. They’re only doing what all artists do: trying to make personal expression relatable and compelling to others. They’re just doing it in a very simple and superficial way, as is pop music’s tendency (here pop music being defined narrowly). This generally leads to clichés.

People like Taylor Swift because she seems to live the cliché. She is innocent and wholesome and completely unaware that the sentiment of “You Belong with Me” was trite when it was the plotline of the first season of Dawson’s Creek. Miley Cyrus, though, seems not only aware of this, but okay with it. And people find this manipulative and dishonest, and assume that Miley is a pawn or an act.

I, for one, think it’s more honest. It’s very hard—though not impossible—for me to believe that Taylor Swift is as naïve and enthusiastic as she seems. It’s much easier for me to accept that Miley Cyrus doesn’t like Jay-Z, but is willing to sing about him because other people like him. And what’s wrong with a singer who wants to appeal to our tastes?

Consumer prices were up 0.3% for October despite the fact that hundreds of thousands of jobs are lost each week under Obama’s economic policies.  Is this the start of the inflation that many including Warren Buffet have predicted will come as the result of the massive spending, debt and debasement of the US$ that are the cornerstones of Obama’s economic policies?  Does Obama friend and campaign supporter, anti-American and socialist George Sorros know something?

Housing building permits fell 4% and construction dropped more than 10% in October.

What great indicators that the socialist policies of Barack Obama are working so well for individual Americans.

That’s right. Don’t believe me? Check this out. Then, by all means, do more research to see if it’s accurate. I was alerted to this by a documentary I just watched called I.O.U.S.A. It features Warren Buffet, Alan Greenspan, Robert Bixby, Ron Paul, David Walker and several presidents and other politicians. I would really love to see an updated version, now that our national debt has taken off even more than I believe they anticipated. You can watch the video on Netflix or in parts on youtube. Also there is a micro-version on youtube, which is probably good.

In short the film talks about how big our national debt is, how it got that way, how it’s going to get worse if we do nothing and finally how to do something about it. I got a pro Ron Paul vibe from the documentary, but it gave me such a pro Ron Paul vibe that I didn’t mind it at all.

So seriously. Check it out.

Or: On Outperforming Warren Buffet

Warren Buffet is hailed as the best investor in the world. His net worth as an investor is generally regarded as proof.  I started 100% DIY investing in March 2006 when we transferred our remaining holdings from our full-service investment adviser to our discount brokerage. We are currently standing at 31% over book value. In the same period, BRK-A, Buffet’s holding company has gone from trading at US $90,625 to yesterday’s close at $103,000. That is a 14% gain. Does that make me twice as good an investor as Warren Buffet?

An article in Canada’s Globe and Mail recommends that individuals invest like Buffet. There are many articles of this kind floating around; Buffet is considered a prophet of investing, the Oracle of Omaha. I’ve also shared here some of my tips of investing and there is some overlap between the way the Buffet invests and my style.  Yet in the commentary section of the Globe and Mail article I wrote:

I cannot invest like Warren Buffet. He breathes and the market reacts. It is harder for him to buy shares on the open market too, since if he were to let it be known that he wanted a billion dollars of shares of something, the price would go up uncontrollably. That’s why he often buys preferred shares which aren’t available to guys like me. He can’t invest like me either. Unlike Buffet, whenever I buy something the price seems to go down immediately. I buy very small stakes in companies that I think have promise or which have good yield. But it’s too small for anyone to pay much attention. I like it that way.

So perhaps comparing myself to Warren Buffet is a bit of bravado on my part, a testosterone-filled pissing match. It’s not comparable at all because Buffet is investing billions and I’m like an ant crawling around the big toe of an elephant. And to be fair, there have been times when Buffet’s done much better. I’ve been lucky during this recession, I’ll admit it.

But there is a fundamental difference between Buffet style and mine. He is buying America whereas I’m shorting the US dollar and buying Canada–a strategy may back fire according to Roubini; but I don’t think it will because all the trends in the US government until the 2010 election are inflationary. Ken Boessenkool in the Globe and Mail writes about Canada’s dollar, the loonie:

… perceptions of future investment returns on a country-to-country basis are often affected by large shifts in fiscal policy. Bad fiscal policy – in the form of unsustainable deficits and debts – will cause investors to expect increases in future taxes and lower rates of return. In that case, the relative attractiveness of that country as a place to work and invest will fall, driving down economic growth. In response to poor fiscal policy, a falling currency can provide the automatic stabilizer to lower growth rates resulting from rising deficits and unsustainable debts.

And this is exactly the picture we are seeing south of the border. Barack Obama has put the United States on a debt and deficit path that is far worse than Canada experienced in the early 1990s, when The Wall Street Journal called Canada an “honorary member of the Third World” and our dollar was flirting with historic lows.

Moveover, our world-view is informed by biblical conservatism. The Bible is a good guide to investing; it affirms risk taking, generosity, unselfishness and not allowing money take hold of you (I am of the opinion that selfish people make bad investors).  It also warns about indebtedness. In my view, the US government’s profligate debt-based spending is a path towards poverty that is immoral and self-destructive. This kind of behavior is not affirmed in the Bible at all.

Warren Buffet knows it is bad in the US. But perhaps he is in denial about the single worst investment decision that he ever made:  his ill-informed endorsement of Barack Obama for President. Ill-informed because had he paid attention to Obama, he would have known that he was a radical leftist–perhaps it is not too far to say that BHO is a Marxist given his background. He would have known also that BHO knows nothing about economics and has never been an executive of a company or any other entity which would have qualified him for becoming the CEO of the United States. The man who is famous for researching companies before risking billions failed to do his research into BHO and it is literally costing Berkshire Hathaway billions in market capitalization.

Warren Buffet and I…we’ve both got rail!

I, quiet possibly, may be the last person who has yet to finish reading The Snowball by Alice Schroeder, otherwise summarized as Warren Buffet and the Business of Life. The book’s publication in 2008 was well-timed, and with the economy collapsing all around us, who wouldn’t want to scrape a few golden nuggets of wisdom from the “sage of Omaha” as Warren Buffet came to be known. Unsurprisingly, The Snowball shot up The New York Times Bestseller list to #1 as fast as the banking system came crashing down in that domino-effect metaphor so often used in the media. That’s the success formula of a bestseller: celebrity + timeliness, with one often outweighing the other.

While I am only a few hundred pages in (the book is close to 1,000 pages long!), a paragraph in its very beginning caught my eye. It goes something like this:

“Most of the press people liked Buffet, who went out of his way not to be disliked by anyone. He also intrigued them. His public image was that of a simple man, and he seemed genuine. Yet he lived a complicated life. He owned five homes but occupied only two of them. Somehow he wound up having, in effect, two wives. He spoke in homely aphorisms with a kindly twinkle in his eye and had a notably loyal group of friends, yet along the way he had earned a reputation as a tough, even icy dealmaker. He seemed to shun publicity yet managed to attract more of it than almost any other businessman on earth. He jetted around the country in a G-IV, often attended celebrity events, and had many famous friends, yet said that he preferred Omaha, hamburgers, and thrift. He spoke of his success as being based on a few simple investing ideas and tap-dancing to work with enthusiasm every day, but if that was so, why had nobody else been able to replicate it?”

So why has no one been able to replicate it? A question I would ask you, but also something I keep thinking about as I read the book.

One of the answers that I keep mulling over can be summed up in one word: Patience. Warren Buffet is patient in waiting for cheap to become really cheap, in going through financial statements line by line, in hoarding cash until “really cheap” becomes even cheaper. As our world spins faster and faster, it feels like our attention spans become shorter and shorter. We tweet in 140 words, incessantly check Facebook updates, jump from blog to blog, all of which test our patience to sit for a few hours and read a 1,000 page book or sit patiently on the sidelines as the rest of the world invests in mortgages backed by layers of nothing.

If you had the patience to read to the end of this blog entry, thank you. I hope to do the same for you.

I saw a article that Buffet and Gates came to Columbia and made a speech – actually, it was close to an interview – about the present and future of America.

I adore the two great men in many ways.

They are the richest men in the world.

Though they never settle on the present, always seeking for better future.

They really love humans and want to make the world a better place.

They aren’t afraid of anything. They believe ‘the secret’.

There was an interesting question raised by a student in Columbia Business School, and their answer really inspired me. So I wanted to share with you.

QUESTION:  What industry do you think is going to produce the next Bill Gates?

Gates: Medicine, you know.  We haven’t solved Parkinson’s or Alzheimer’s or about 20 diseases of these poor countries, and yet we can be sure that we’re on track to do that.

- I am proud of majoring in medicine, and surely believe that fundamental happiness comes from health, not wealth. I am really happy that Bill Gates sees the future of medicine so bright. Although there are lots of problems in medicine industry, I hope to be one of  the members in medicine that makes the world a better place.

Buffet: I will guarantee, you will do well at whatever turns you on.  There’s no question about that.  Don’t let anybody else tell you what to do.  You figure out what you are doing.

- I really agree with Buffet’s words. There are lots of things to do in our lives. There are things we love, things we are good at, things that are attractive simply because of the money it provides.

I believe we should do the things we fall in love with. The things that ‘turns you on’. The things that makes the time flies while doing it. Pursuing the dream may be frustrating, doubtful, and fearful sometimes. But as far as you love it, you will gain success and happiness at the same time.

See the whole text

SÃO PAULO – O megainvestidor Warren Buffett afirmou na última quinta-feira (12) que o pânico financeiro já passou, ainda que os esforços para conter os problemas da crise persistam.

Em encontro na Universidade de Columbia, nos Estados Unidos, Buffet comentou que há mais espaço para investimentos dentro dos EUA do que fora, uma vez que o país ainda continua como uma grande economia perante as outras.

Para ele, o governo dos EUA não deveria “mimar” as companhias que precisam de ajuda para sobreviver ou para manter seu nível de capital.

Elogios aos líderes
Ele elogiou também a performance do presidente do Fed (Federal Rerserve), Ben Bernanke, e do secretário do Tesouro, Timothy Geithner, mediante o gerenciamento da crise financeira, atribuindo a eles “notas altas”.

Justamente por acreditar ser este um bom momento para investir, Buffet anunciou na semana passada a compra de 77% da companhia ferroviária Burlington Northern Santa Fé, por US$ 26,4 bilhões, sua maior aquisição. A operação está sendo feita por meio de sua empresa, Berkshire Hathaway.

Being a financial advisor, I get asked to forecast the market all the time. I notice most other financial advisors would regurgitate the morning financial news and look really smart and up-to-date. I felt like I am the only one in my profession who doesn’t know what is the market going to do in the near future. So what a relief Warren Buffet threw me a life line like this one:

We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good. Even now, (Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman) Charlie (Munger) and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.

I am gonna print this quote on note cards and hand it to anyone who ask me to forecast the market again.

Oi amigos

Hoje vou falar um pouco sobre um livro excelente escrito por Mark Tier – Investimentos: Os Segredos de George Soros e Warren Buffet.

Nesse livro o autor estudou os maiores investidores dos últimos tempos, homens que saíram do zero e se tornaram bilionários graças ao talento como investidores.  Os métodos de investimentos desses investidores são completamente diferente: George Soros é famoso por investir quantias grandes  com alavancagem em operações de curto prazo. Warren Buffet é famoso por comprar empresas por um preço abaixo de seu verdadeiro e valor e mantê-las por um longo período.

O autor tentou buscar as semelhanças que existem entre esses Mestres em nvestimentos, o seu modo de pensar, os princípios que norteiam os seus investimentos. Segundo ele, esses princípios podem ser usados para investir em qualquer tipo de ativo com resultados excelentes. Ele chama esses princípios de: Os 23 hábitos investidores nos investimentos.

Vou falar um pouco sobre o hábito número 1, com certeza um dos mais importantes:

A preservação do capital é prioridade máxima ao mestre de investimentos.

Buffet tem uma frase muito famosa: Regra número 1 dos investimentos: nunca perder dinheiro. Regra número 2:  Nunca se esqueça da regra número 1

Eles sabem que mais importante do que ganhar mais dinheiro é preservar o que você já tem. É fundamental evitar que grandes perdas destruam o patrimônio que você construiu com tanto esforço. E eles se baseiam nesse princípio em cada decisão que tomam ao realizar seus investimentos. Buscando investimentos com alta probabilidade de retorno e pequena probabilidade de perda.

Pudemos ver nesse ano passado como uma crise financeira de grandes proporções acabou trazendo grandes perdas para investidores que não ignoraram esse princípio fundamental e não souberam proteger adequadamente seu patrimônio. Investidores com grande inteligência financeira, que tem como princípio a preservação de capital acabram saindo da crise com pequenas perdas ou até com grandes ganhos.

Muito mais sobre esse tópico e muitos outro no livro. Recomendo muito a leitura, vale muito a pena esse investimento.

Clique na figura para acessar o site da Livraria Cultura

Abs

Coach

Condenast going Chinese ! No jokes ! We might have a chance to see Wintour on tour in the chinese province Shanxi so to explain the crucials differences between “Goergous”, “Beautiful” , “so 2008″  and few tips on the perfect outfit for a Dragon boat racing, a popular traditional Chinese sport.

“In emerging markets like China… the magazine business and magazine development continue to go very strong,” even as the publishing industry suffers in America amid the rise of Web-based content, said Jonathan Newhouse, Chairman of Conde Nast International Ltd” said Jonathan Newhouse, Chairman of Conde Nast International Ltd

Health care reform passed in the House of Representatives last night ! Thanks God ! We thought one way or another we’re all going to die.Now let’s hope Lieberman doesn’t eff things up in the Senate.

Warren Buffet rules when it comes to make bucks, amidst a severe recession, round up layoffs around the country, his investement company just announced that profits have almost tripled in the third quarter.

Erikah Badu thinks her first appearance on a music video get way too little credit.Do you remember the soul music video ” How does it feel” featuring an outreageous almost naked body wich send straight crazy all the girls around ? Well, its in “My Lady ” music video sang by soul crooner D’angelo where she first appeared but at that time the focus wasnt naked flesh but “those lips” and again, women still went crazy !

]]> http://promiseofavalon.wordpress.com/2009/11/07/gordons-bank-tax-is-idiotic/ Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:51:03 +0000 Arthur http://promiseofavalon.wordpress.com/2009/11/07/gordons-bank-tax-is-idiotic/

Until today, Gordon Brown was just a fool, but now it appears that he is a real malevolent force that must be stopped.  Like a tornado he thunders around the international stage bringing devastation to all things economic.

His proposal, at the G20 summit, to introduce an international financial transactions tax is probably one of his poorest ideas, and there is stiff competition.  It is just as well that other G20 countries appear lukewarm. The United States and Canada took it a step further, declaring their outright opposition. Let us hope that they continue to treat his ideas with the contempt we should have shown early on during his period as Chancellor.

The purpose of this fund, to be administered by the International Monetary Fund, is to cover any future bank bailout. This sounds attractive – who would argue against banks funding future bailouts instead of taxpayers? – but it is idiotic; and illustrative of Brownian economic lunacy.

First, it is incredible to build a system that forces responsible banks to put money aside to bailout irresponsible banks. This is not a normal insurance system; it was quite possible for good banks to avoid exposing themselves to the risks.

Second, mechanisms already exists to give the banks a buffer to cover exceptional demand on their funds: reserves and capital ratios. Had the risk exposure of the banks been properly regulated, there would have been no need for the massive taxpayer-funded bailouts.

But third and most significantly, Gordon Brown’s appeal for an international transactions tax reveals his complete failure to recognise the true cause of the financial crisis.  Gordon Brown still seems to believe that anything except his own action is to blame; in fact, he is pathologically incapable of recognising fault in anything he does. This is what he said:

But the objective of making sure that people who cause so much difficulty actually contribute and pay towards solving those problems – that must be right.

Yes Gordon, and you are one of those people. You stoked inflation by allowing interest rates to be held too low; you adopted an inflationary measure, the CPI, that ignored the build up in the property market; you introduced a regulatory system that failed completely to anticipate and mitigate the inflationary bubble and the banks’ failure to identify risk; and you believed that inflation can be controlled without controlling the money supply.

No-one exonerates the banks for what happened but they operated in a system constructed and regulated by ministers like Gordon Brown; ministers that are responsible for sound money and safe banking. Warren Buffet, back in 2003, denounced derivatives as ‘financial weapons of mass destruction,’ but apparently the politicians ignored him, thinking they knew best. And Gordon Brown still believes he knows best.

Gordon Brown is a menace and he must be stopped. The general election cannot come soon enough when we can eject this wretched man and his fantasy outlook on economic management from office.

Akhirnya dominasi Bill Gates memudar juga. Setelah 13 tahun berturut-turut bercokol sebagai orang terkaya di dunia versi majalah Forbes, pendiri raksasa peranti lunak Microsoft itu tergeser juga dari tahtanya. Tahun ini, orang terkaya sejagad adalah Warren Buffett, seorang pebisnis dan investor yang ketajaman pikirannya amat luar biasa sehingga ia diibaratkan sebagai perpaduan antara fisikawan Einstein, seniman Picasso dan raja kaya raya pencipta koin emas Croesus, dalam satu tubuh.

Berikut ini adalah wawancara yang pernah ia lakukan dengan CNBC.
Dalam wawancara tersebut ditemukan beberapa aspek yang menarik dari hidupnya :

1. Ia membeli saham pertamanya pada umur 11 tahun dan ia sekarang menyesal karena tidak memulainya dari masih muda.
Pesan : Anjurkan anak anda untuk berinvestasi [Encourage your children to invest]

2. Ia membeli sebuah kebun yang kecil pada umur 14 tahun dengan uang tabungan yang didapatinya dari hasil mengirimkan surat kabar.
Pesan : Dorong Anak Anda untuk mulai belajar berbisnis [ Encourage your children to start some kind of business ]

3. Ia masih hidup di sebuah rumah dengan 3 kamar berukuran kecil di pusat kota Ohama, yang ia beli setelah ia menikah 50 tahun yang lalu.

4. Ia berkata bahwa ia mempunyai segala yang ia butuhkan dalam rumah itu.
Meskipun rumah itu tidak ada pagarnya.
Pesan : Jangan membeli apa yang tidak dibutuhkan, dan dorong Anak Anda berbuat yang sama. [ Don’t buy more than what you “really need” and encourage your children to do and think the same ]

5. Ia selalu mengemudikan mobilnya seorang diri jika hendak bepergian dan ia tidak mempunyai seorang supir ataupun keamanan pribadi.
Pesan : Jadilah apa adanya. [ You are what you are ]

6. Ia tidak pernah bepergian dengan pesawat jet pribadi, walaupun ia memiliki perusahaan pembuat pesawat jet terbesar di dunia.
Pesan : Berhematlah [ Always think how you can accomplish things economically ]
Berkshire Hathaway, perusahaan miliknya, memiliki 63 anak perusahaan.

7. Ia hanya menuliskan satu pucuk surat setiap tahunnya kepada para CEO dalam perusahaannya, menyampaikan target yang harus diraih untuk tahun itu.

8. Ia tidak pernah mengadakan rapat atau menelpon mereka secara reguler.
Pesan : Tugaskan pekerjaan kepada orang yang tepat [ Assign the right people to the right jobs ]

9. Ia hanya memberikan 2 peraturan kepada para CEOnya.
Peraturan nomor satu adalah : Jangan pernah sekalipun menghabiskan uang para pemilik saham.
Peraturan nomor dua : Jangan melupakan peraturan nomor satu.
Pesan : Buat Tujuan yang jelas dan yakinkan mereke untuk fokus ke tujuan. [ Set goals and make sure people focus on them ]

10. Ia tidak bersosialisasi dengan masyarakat kalangan kelas atas.
Waktu luangnya di rumah ia habiskan dengan menonton televisi sambil makan pop corn.
Pesan : Jangan Pamer, Jadilah diri sendiri & nikmati apa yang kamu lakukan [ Don’t try to show off, just be your self and do what you enjoy doing ]

Bill Gates, orang terkaya di dunia bertemu dengannya untuk pertama kalinya 5 tahun yang lalu. Bill Gates pikir ia tidak memiliki keperluan yang sangat penting dengan Warren Buffet, maka ia mengatur pertemuan itu hanya selama 30 menit.

Tetapi ketika ia bertemu dengannya, pertemuan itu berlangsung selama 10 jam dan Bill Gates tertarik untuk belajar banyak dari Warren Buffet. Warren Buffet tidak pernah membawa handphone dan di meja kerjanya tidak ada komputer.

Berikut ini adalah nasihatnya untuk orang-orang yang masih muda:

Hindarilah kartu kredit dan berinvestasilah untuk diri Anda sendiri dan ingat Uang tidak menciptakan orang tetapi oranglah yang menciptakan uang.

Hiduplah secara sederhana.

Jangan lakukan apa yang orang lain katakan, dengarkanlah mereka, namun lakukan apa yang menurut Anda baik.

Jangan memaksakan diri untuk memiliki barang-barang bermerk, pakailah apa yang sekiranya nyaman bagi Anda.

Jangan memboroskan uang Anda untuk hal-hal yang tidak diperlukan;
gunakanlah uang untuk membantu mereka yang kekurangan.

Biar bagaimana pun orang lain tetap tidak dapat mengatur hidup Anda sendiri.
Andalah yang mengendalikan hidup Anda sepenuhnya.

Semoga Bermanfaat..

Reference: http://count27bless.wordpress.com/20…warren-buffet/

I just saw this post on Victor Cheng’s Blog and wanted to pass it on. He points us to a great article in Fortune Magazine. It describes the story of an entrepreneur who started a business in 1995.

This entrepreneur decided to get into the auto business in 2003 (just 6 years ago) and is as we speak selling a plugin electric car that gets more range per charge than the Chevy Volt (and Prius plugin edition) and sells for half the price.

He did this all in just the past 6 years starting with no auto industry experience.

Turns out this caught the eye of Warren Buffet who recently bought 10% of the company.

The following story from Fortune Magazine is a must read: Warren Buffet Takes Charge

Prior to the January 2007 announcement of the impending iPhone, I was already a minor shareholder of Apple for their fine set of products.  Ironically, I had not yet owned an Apple product beside a mere iPod nano obtained through a holiday party raffle.  I invested a small amount simply on the news they had decided on switching over to Intel CPU’s for their entire product line.

The reason was not simply because Intel carries more weight in the industry or because Apple computers are to benefit from the higher processing power of the de facto leader in semi’s, but simply because an Apple computer has now become “doubly” valuable when compared to mere PC.  With an Apple computer, I can not only run Apple’s OS and all their slick consumer geared applications, but I can also quickly boot over to a full native Windows OS with a simple key press when turning it on.  Initially Apple lacked direct support for such a boot feature and most of the press focused on the ability to virtualize Windows within Mac OS.  Parallels and VMWare Fusion, the two main competing mac virtualization softwares, effortlessly ran to the spotlight as the way to run Windows within a Mac.  Ultimately Apple caught headwind of this frenzy and no more than few months, Mac had native dual boot feature for anyone wanting to run Windows and Mac as a choice with a single button click at boot time.

In short, a Mac, all of a sudden, presented a very valuable proposition for any serious Windows user in the market for a new computer.

A year or so later, the iPhone is announced.  My gosh, is this thing for real I remember asking myself.  The stock price that day was roughly in the 80’s if I recall correctly and had jumped about 8% following the announcement.  While I’m not an investor on day to day news, I am however a long term investor and any news having a definitive impact on longterm will always surely fork me to action.  I was sold from the moment jobs scrolled the music list with his finger in public for the first time — and I wasn’t the only one.

Video Jobs Demoing iPhone for first time in public:

So I decided to up the ante a bit for the longterm, Apple had an Ace card.

As the woo’s and wow’s resonated in blogospheres and hallways of corporate and consumer america in a relentless fashion never seen before, I was certain my ante was safe for the long term.  The impact was clearly evident in multiple sectors, music, phone, entertainment — even to the distaste of some non-believing computer sector titans.

Balmer laughs as first comment to iPhone:

Launch day, June 29, 2007.  Having performed my share of voluntarily marketing for the weeks and months leading up to release, my coworkers knew I would be one of those unfortuanate souls waiting in line for their purchasing opportunity.

The last time I saw lines forming with this voracity was Microsoft’s release of Windows 95.  At that time, I was too young to understand and apply Peter Lynch’s investment style — invest in what you know and are certain of, however had I, I would have reaped the benefits as Microsoft dominated the desktop and business software category the following 5 to 10 — year over year.  That missed opportunity only served as a reminder and a lesson learned for any future opportunity — and this may be it.

This frenzy served only to convince me I am not alone, and this is a domestic occurrence for product already planed and destined for international release.  The ante must be increased — the long term odds are too good to be true.

For the weeks and months that followed, I decided to stalk the Apple stores around south Florida.  Initially I was simply a member of the of the frenzied group interested in all things Apple.  I was going at my leisure when time permitted, however in short order I realized the frenzy, post iPhone launch, simply continued.  You couldn’t walk through an Apple store without saying “excuse me” at least a half a dozen times if not more just to navigate the main corridors.  I immediately questioned, is this frenzy having a halo effect on Apple and it’s entire product line?

Coincidentally the iPhone launch was on the last two days of Apple’s fiscal quarter so the full effect, particularly the halo effect, should be recognized and felt on their next quarterly announcement.

Touring the Apple stores became an interesting game of quasi-interrogation with various Apple staff and geniuses from store to store.  Questions were phrased with basic customer interest as an allegory to a relentless statistical business analyst.  Throughout the fiscal quarter, I visited each south Florida store at least twice — shaving the last bit of doubt for an all-in wager as I was witnessing the perfect hand forming.

Interestingly enough, while working at Inktel Direct, the President, Ricky Arriola, happend to give a presentation on leadership as a kick of to a series of successful internal training seminares termed “Idea” (Inktel Direct Excellence Academy) a few days prior to Apple’s quarterly announcement.  Already motivated by the various topics presented, a topic which resonated was making a decision — leaders don’t teeter on a topic longer than necessary and more often than not make a decision and take direction.  This inspiration from the presentation and the highlight of that one particular topic combined with Apple quarterly announcement imminent and the bag full of statistical measures all pointing to a  royal flush, the “all in” call was a no brainer at 3:50PM before markets closed prior to Apple’s after market quarterly announcement.  Chip gathering followed at 9:40AM shortly after markets open the following day.  Ironically, I must emphasize I truly don’t condone or recommend any type of short term trading of this fashion as the only sure fire way to win in markets is Buffet & Lynch’s style with long term solid positions.

Apple was on the rise.  All throughout 2008 reaching a peak of about $200/share at end of 2007 prior to the general collapse of the markets.  As the markets collapsed, Apple, as much any company in any sector, suffered as the exodus of investors seeking a safe haven in treasuries, bonds, and other low risk fixed income investments.

Are the fundamentals of Apple really affected though?

TIME magazine named iPhone invention of the year
http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1677329_1678542_1677891,00.html

The rumor mill for a new iPhone becomes rampant, an iPhone which connects to the faster 3G network.  The blogosphere lights up again, this time with spy fotos from China factories confirming the imminent release.  For a recession, Apple seems to be capturing all the spare attention and dollars at the expense of all other non-essential items.

iPhone 3G launch day, lines abound even further. Here is a video I recorded while arriving at Aventura mall in Florida.  In a recession, lines like these convinced me to play more long term rounds in the Apple game.

iPhone 3G launch in Aventura Mall, July 7 2008

Store congestion not only continues, but actually increases as it’s difficult to even walk through a store during the 2008 holiday season.  Can this long term game ever have any signs of ending?  During this time, the financial crisis is in full swing.  Henry Paulson and Bernanke are feverishly trying to get emergency liquidity approved and injected into the economy through the treasury as Bernanke had virtually exhausted all his options from a federal reserve perspective. It was literally chaos in D.C. and economically as a whole.  Ironically, while financial armageddon was occurring domestically with trickling effects internationally, Apple stores were flush full with holiday shoppers.  I’m I seeing an oxymoran here or what?

Despite Apple shares suffering along side all companies, I decided to apply Lynch’s & Buffet’s philosophy along with the typical dollar cost averaging during the continued down turn.  The company long term is solid, it’s fundamentals are solid, it’s sitting on tons of cash with no debt and customers abound.  Lets start the wagers.  I don’t have the full house assured in my hand, however I’m certain the turn or the river will complete my flush long term. With each down turn of $10 in share price, the ante was matched.  It was painstakingly difficult to continue this pace from $190/share through to $80/share — but images of Buffet preaching fundamentals soothed my anxiety and gave me confidence with each submission.

By the time $80/share came around I was too heavy in Apple.  Apple far outweighed my portfolio 10:1 if not 20:1 — I needed to diversify, and no better time to do so than on the down low.  A weekend long research, steadfastly applying Buffet’s value approach and some stats filtering tools putting me neck deep into P/E, debt, revenue qtr to qtr, stochastics and bollingers for hours on end,  I arrived at a solid list of fundamental stocks by Sunday evening.  Ricky’s presentation echoed in my mind again — a decision needs to be made — should I throw new capital at the fire or simply reduce some Apple at a loss.  Buffet kept me from selling at a loss just for capital reasons — fundamentally, Apple is too good and I barely gave it the time necessary to fulfill it’s long term destiny.  Done.  Timing on late February 2009, the theoretical bottom of this recession, was purely coincidental and the long term bandwagon officially commenced.

Quarter after Quarter, the sound of Apple increasing it’s market share in the computer space resonated and brought a subtle smirk.  iPhone exceeding sale expectations, 3GS with video launches in mid summer brining demand so high problems with fulfilment and inventory plague Apple for weeks.  World wide launches continue in other countries where even my cousin in Uruguay is now aware of a company called Apple and their infamous iPhone.  Apple erecting stores world wide at a pace faster than people fill their gas tanks.   Wall street journal classifies Apple’s brand within spitting distance of titans like Coca-Cola, Google, & Microsoft and first in regional ares such as Asia.

WSJ 9/11/2009 – Apple ranked as region’s most admired multinational company
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125259938989400063.html

The explosive growth is so horrendous, for lack of a better word, Microsoft had to rethink their strategy from a full business perspective.  Ads now target Apple directly, something lacking from Microsoft now for over a two decades.  Their mobile phone strategy had to take a full about face and consider touch screens and hardware innovations as key priorities.  To get closer to the consumer, Microsoft saw the need to open resembling retail outlets — the first opening less than a month ago on Oct 23.

Microsoft opens first retail store:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,569264,00.html

To bring finality on this growth segment, while Apple has a steadily increasing market share for computers sales currently at 8-9%, setting aside all the low end laptops and desktops sold and only considering computers in the $1k range and up, apple commands a 91% market share, up roughly 40% from their 66% the year earlier.

In overall conclusion, although Apple is currently a large cap with slow stymied growth, the numbers are extremely good and investor appreciation, be it stock or dividends, are sure to materialize more long term.  It’s additionally rumored, Apple will be changing the accounting rules on iPhone sales.  Instead of spreading the sale over two years, as a subsidized product by AT&T, Apple may soon start accounting for the full value upfront.  If this occurs, Apple earnings report would have a redbull injection to boot.

P.S. Oh, I forgot to mention Apple is now the #1 music distributor, leapfrogging Amazon, Best Buy, Wal-Mart in roughly two to three years of massive iPod expansion and sheer dominance in portable music devices.

http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2008/04/apple-passes-wal-mart-now-1-music-retailer-in-us.ars