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RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.  I AM EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING WEATHER WHERE I LIVE IN NORTHEAST CITRUS COUNTY.  PLEASE GO TO THE FOLLOWING SITE FOR MORE DETAILS:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tbw/pdf/TopNews/RecordColdFeb21.pdf

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THE HYDROLOGIC CYCLE, A CLASSICAL TOPIC

IN NATURAL SCIENCE COURSES

I’ve taught the hydrologic cycle many times in geology, meteorology, physical oceanography and environmental science classes.  It’s always been a pleasure but I’ve never had enough time.  All of these were college courses and in almost every case the text book covered the subject adequately.  However, the manner in which water moves and changes in our natural environment is so very interesting that a few pages in a text with a traditional drawing and an hour lecture from me simply does not do the subject justice.  Water is such a remarkable compound – I can’t find the words to explain how very interesting it is and how mysterious it can be at times considering the amount of scientific attention it has received through the years.  There is still so much to learn.

So, it is with excitement that I look forward to a 6-hour course that I am scheduled to teach in May to the Senior Institute enrollees at Central Florida Community College.  In 37 years of full-time college teaching (and 4 years part-time) I never had the opportunity to devote so much time to the subject.  The method I intend to use is my own “idea” but surely it has been done before – that is, to follow water step-by-step as it goes from one phase or one environment to the next.  My presentation won’t be a journey without side trips and backtracking.  There are multiple manners in which water can transform and/or move with interesting little anomalies along the way.  With 6 hours to utilize I will be able to discuss aspects that were only fleetingly mentioned in my previous hour-long presentations e.g.: Capillary action, deposition, glacial calving, influent groundwater movement, juvenile water, super-cooled droplets, and much more.

SUPERCOOLED CLOUD DROPLETS AND ICING

I feel fairly certain that some people who read this have had the experience of having rain freeze upon impact with their vehicle’s windshield.  Some would assume that the freezing occurs because the windshield is so very cold.  That is usually not the case.  Instead, the liquid droplets were probably at a temperature well below “freezing” and the impact with the windshield itself triggered the instant freezing.  Hopefully, the “defrosting” vents can keep the windshield warm enough so that the ice can be quickly cleared.  Now, imagine what it must be like if the surfaces being iced are the windshield and wings of your aircraft in flight – as well as other aircraft surfaces (e.g. propellers, fuselage, horizontal stabilizers)!

Today, February 15, 2009, the mere thought of super-cooled droplets hauntingly reminds me that in addition to the marvelous beauty of water’s multifaceted journeys and transitions through our natural environment, there are some insidious elements that can become deadly in this modern world.  Of course, I’m thinking specifically of the recent terrible aircraft accident responsible for 50 fatalities near Buffalo, New York.

PURE SPECULATION

For a short while since the accident it appeared that icing might have been the culprit or perhaps a contributing factor in causing the aircraft to make its sudden rapid descent (apparently almost immediately after the application of flaps).  At the time other aircraft in the vicinity were reporting icing.  HOWEVER, AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, NEWS RELEASES HAVE INDICATED THAT THE NATIONAL TRANSPORTATION SAFETY BOARD CLAIMS THAT ICING APPEARS NOT TO HAVE BEEN A FACTOR. The changing of the airfoil’s shape upon flap engagement might have triggered the rapid descent – an apparent stall leading to a flat spin.  That would indicate either insufficient air speed at the time of flap deployment or some type of catastrophic failure.   SINCE MANY AVIATION ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY ICING – AND IT WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM FOR AIRCRAFT FOR A LONG TIME TO COME, I SHALL CONTINUE.

When icing was being blamed, I suspected that some critical errors might have been made in the cockpit.  At best, my notions were intuitive – or, on the other end of the spectrum, unfair during such an early stage in the investigation.  Nevertheless, a surprising amount of information has been made available during this embryonic phase – partly due to the fact that the flight recorders are advanced models and they were in very good shape.  There is no need for me to dwell on factors that can cause a plane to become unstable when icing occurs – suffice it to say that airfoils lose “lift efficiency” quickly when ice buildup changes their shape and of course the weight of the ice accumulation can also be a huge factor.  I do not know what kind of air speed indicators are installed on that type of aircraft but I do know that icing can cause false readings on some types.  Icing can also cause problems at air intakes and oil cooler intakes of some aircraft.

BUT WHY DOES THE PHENOMENON OCCUR

IN THE FIRST PLACE?

The cause of the icing is a surprise to most people.  Though icing can occur on a plane’s very cold surface when it descends into “warm” clouds whose temperatures are above freezing, the vast amount of problematic icing occurs when the liquid droplets themselves are below what we traditionally consider freezing temperature.  These droplets consist of what is called supercooled liquid water (SLW).  Water in cloud droplets can get as cold as about negative 40 degrees Celsius (which is the same as negative 40 Fahrenheit) without freezing.

When liquid water freezes (box 3 to 4 in the illustration above) the water molecules align in a crystalline fashion.  But in order to do so they need one of two things:  1) either a freezing nuclei whose surface acts as a template to initially “show” the molecules how (or trigger the molecules to) line up, or 2) some molecules themselves must be jolted (or jiggled) such that for at least an instant they are arranged so they can act as a template or model for the rest to follow.  The likelihood of such alignment occurring in undisturbed droplets is slim.  This would not be true of most fresh water at the surface, such as in lakes because there are microscopically-sized particles available in the water to act as templates.  On the other hand, water that has condensed and remains in the air is very “clean” by comparison.

An aircraft flying though supercooled cloud droplets causes considerable rapid stirring to set the stages for freezing upon impact with that aircraft – just as supercooled raindrops freeze upon impact with trees and suspended wires in those notorious, damaging ice storms.

VIDEO DEMONSTRATIONS

The first three links below show convincing demonstrations of liquid water freezing as a result of hexagonal ice crystal seeding.  The ice crystals provide the template which “shows” the liquid water what to do in order to become solid.  In the third example when the water freezes and builds up a small mound on the wooden post, I suspect that the split second ideal alignment of some water molecules (while pouring) provoked the freezing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe8vJrIvDQM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGpNhBPYNfs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4g1BDpU7ZQo

In this 4^th example you will see that a jolt causing a sloshing of the water in the small amount of air space at the top of the bottle allows for enough water movement so that for an instant a hexagonal orientation occurs among some molecules causing a very rapid “follow the leader” freezing all the way down to the bottom of the bottle.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpiUZI_3o8s

Just as condensation and deposition give off heat, freezing is also exothermic.  This is probably why some of the water remains in the liquid state.  If the SLW is not very much colder than “freezing” temperature, the heat given off during freezing will cause the remaining liquid to acquire enough heat to teeter over to the liquid side.

Use the search term “supercooled water” on YouTube.com and you will find many other video demonstrations.

WHEN WATER FREEZES IT EXPANDS, BECOMING LESS DENSE.  THIS EXPLAINS WHY SOLID WATER FLOATS UPON LIQUID WATER.

If you compare box 3 and 4 in the illustration in this post, you will see why water expands and becomes less dense upon freezing.  To establish the hexagonal grid necessary for ice, the molecules can’t be as close together as they were when they were in the cold liquid stage.

Information on supercooled liquid water would have eventually been posted here if the Continental Express Flight 3407 disaster had not occurred.  It is regrettable that the accident played a role in my posting this information at this time.  I offer my sympathy to all who have broken hearts over the loss of a loved one and all others adversely effected.

Finally, the information in this post about SLW and icing merely scratches the surface compared to that which is known.  But, that which is not understood is formidable.

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It’s expected to get down into the high teens in the morning in my part of Florida (halfway between Inverness and Dunnellon at 28.97 degrees North latitude) and down to a warm 45 degrees where I used to live in Florida (Homestead at 25.46 degrees North latitude).  But even though the temperature here is going to be less than half what it will be down there – the “atmosphere” here is 100 times as serene.  I’ll take serenity and cold over helter-skelter and “not as cold” any old day.

God bless my friends who are stuck down there in that foreign county – even the ones who don’t even realize they are stuck.  As for me – being back in the country of my birth and the county I served honorably while in the Air Force – the good old U.S of A. is a tremendous relief.  In spite of all of our problems today, this is still the greatest country in the world!

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This seems almost like an instant replay!  We Floridians are again playing host to a couple of surges of cold air.  Florida is once again cloudless and the cold air is relatively dry -  therefore the state can’t count on much of a greenhouse effect to slow the loss of heat from the surface.

My neighborhood in northeast Citrus County, Florida can expect freezing temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday morning – and perhaps Friday morning.  As is so often the case, the fickle microclimatology of a neighborhood can be manifested by a wider-than-expected range of low (and high) temperatures.  For example, during a luncheon today a neighbor reminded me that by virtue of his property being on about the highest ground in the neighborhood, his low temperatures end up being not quite as low as those in other parts of the neighborhood.  This is not always the case but it happens the majority of times because on those cold, marginal mornings when the synoptic pressure gradient is weak, the coldest (and therefore densest) air tends to spill downward into the lower vicinities.

My wife and I have given up on covering our ornamentals – deciding a while ago to allow “survival of the fittest” to kick in.  But – many of my neighbors have already covered some of their plants.

This is not a mean-spirited criticism but it is a huge paradox to me that so many will go out of their way to protect a plant that isn’t meant to grow here yet some think nothing of killing a native species of harmless snake that dares to stray on to their property.  I understand the fear – but not the lethal reaction.

If you are “up north” reading this, I imagine that you’d love to be enjoying our temperatures down here.  Everything is relative, is it not?  For example.  I took my daily 3-mile walk earlier today wearing a light-weight sweater over a T-shirt and at the half-way mark the sweater came off!  It has been a delightful day for early February – that’s for sure.

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LIKE MOST POSTING ON THIS WEBLOG, THIS IS TIME-SENSITIVE AND WAS ENTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON OF JANUARY 11, 2009.  EVEN ONE DAY CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE SO IF YOU ARE NOT READING THIS CLOSE TO THE POSTING TIME, PLEASE CONSULT YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OR ON-LINE RESOURCES FOR UPDATES.

Here in Citrus County, Florida an approaching cold front is expected to arrive tonight (Sunday, January 11, 2009).  Then the lowest temperatures will get progressively lower for a few days.  For Hernando a small town nearby which is 23 miles from the Gulf of Mexico, the current 10-day forecast is for the following LOWS shortly after 7:30 AM:

50˚F. Monday, January 12

42˚F. Tuesday, January 13

33˚F. Wednesday, January 14

31˚F. Thursday, January 15

30˚F. Friday, January 16

28˚F. Saturday, January 17

38˚F. Sunday, January 18

45˚F. Monday, January 19

41˚F. Tuesday, January 20

42˚F. Wednesday, January 21

Because of the diverse micro-climatology of this area, expect even colder temperatures in certain areas that cool off very quickly during the night.

Ocala, about 40 miles inland from the Gulf of Mexico, might expect temperatures 4 degrees lower than those listed above.

Interestingly, it is typical for the minimum temperatures of a day to occur 30 minutes or so AFTER sunrise.  This is because during that early portion of daylight the sun is so low on the horizon (thus the intensity of solar radiation is weak) that more heat escapes the surface than is received from the sun.  People who must protect their crops from freezing temperatures know this.

THE IMAGE ABOVE  shows a steam fog over a roof in Central Florida during a cold morning last month.  You are looking southward at the west side of my house.  You can see frost on the roof except in places where the lack of insulation kept it warmer underneath – including the parallel trusses.

“Steam fog” is actually a MISNOMER.  That is because what you see is not steam.  Steam, in the strict scientific sense, is invisible.  YOU HAVE NEVER SEEN STEAM.  What you see rising from a teapot of boiling water is not steam.  By scientific definition, steam is water vapor and water vapor is defined as water in the gaseous state.  There is some water vapor in the air where you are this very moment but you can’t see it.  What you are actually “seeing” and calling steam is liquid water in the form of tiny droplets, not unlike cloud droplets.  That liquid has formed by the condensation of water vapor (the steam which neither you nor anyone else can see) into tiny little spheres of liquid.

NOTE ABOUT STEAM:  You can search for definitions of steam and you will find some alternate ones which will use terms like “mist.” In the non-scientific world there are even alternate understandings of the meaning of vapor.  Please understand that I am talking about steam as defined by the modern physicist, chemist, meteorologist, physical oceanographer, etc.

WHAT WAS HAPPENING ON AND OVER MY ROOF WHEN THIS IMAGE WAS TAKEN was that frost on the south-facing side and on heated edges of the roof was melting, some of that resultant liquid evaporated into water vapor (steam) but the water vapor quickly condensed back into the liquid phase due to the cold air into which it ascended (water vapor generally rises easily in still air because the water molecules are so much lighter than the nitrogen and oxygen molecules making up most of the air).  NOTE:  The only other remote possibility is that the frost was sublimating into water vapor but the air was not nearly dry enough nor was the temperature cold enough for this to be happening; sublimation is the phase change whereby a solid becomes a gas totally bypassing the liquid phase – as does dry ice.  Vapor pressure plays a significant role in sublimation but I’m ignoring that now since that is not what was happening.

Because evaporation is an important component to the conditions leading up to the development of a steam fog, many meteorologist have chosen to refer to them as evaporation fogs.  To be more specific, a steam fog is a type of evaporation fog.

Steam fogs occur when the air is colder than the moist surface.  Perhaps you have seen steam fogs over liquid surfaces like a wet asphalt highway after a heavy, cooling rain, over a heated swimming pool, or over other bodies of water that are warmer than the air above.  In time, more images of steam fogs will be posted on this site.

SPECIAL NOTE ABOUT STEAM BURNS AND ANOTHER NOTE ABOUT CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS:  One reason why steam burns are so serious is because not only is the victim injured by the very hot steam (super-heated water vapor) but also by the extra heat given off when that steam condenses.  Condensation (the opposite to evaporation) gives off heat called the latent heat of condensation.  It is the same heat that was taken away from the environment where the water vapor was originally formed from the evaporation of liquid water.  So, evaporation is a cooling process (taking heat from the environment where it’s occurring) and condensation is a heating process (adding heat to the environment where it is occurring).

In home central air conditioning systems the place where the coolant is being condensed by compression will be outside because both compression and condensation raise the temperature.  If there was not a fan to circulate air out there, the compressor unit would “fry.”  The cooling half of the unit, that which is inside, is the evaporator.  A fan blows air through the cold evaporator coils in order to make that air cooler.

]]> http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/12/10/florida-weather-alert-for-certain-gulf-coastal-counties/ Thu, 11 Dec 2008 03:31:27 +0000 cloudman23 http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/12/10/florida-weather-alert-for-certain-gulf-coastal-counties/

LEFT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

Target Area = the following Florida counties:

Levy,  Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough

Event: Coastal Flood Statement Effective:18:38 CDT on 12-10-2008 Expires:09:00 CDT on 12-12-2008 Alert:

…INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES AND HIGH SURF ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT…

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND QUICKLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND EVENTUALLY UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE NORTH IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AND

TONIGHT THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL CAUSE TIDES TO RUN SOME 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER…WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES FROM HOMOSASSA NORTH THROUGH CEDAR KEY TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.

THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND OVER-WASH AS WELL AS MINOR BEACH EROSION AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND STRONG UNDERTOWS AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE.

RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

_______________________________________________

I personally recommend that residents of the counties mentioned above and also adjacent inland counties pay attention to the weather tomorrow (Thursday).  Cyclogenesis is predicted to occur along the front over the Gulf and that could cause it to swing around rapidly – generating a dangerous squall line ahead of it.  The radar image above shows a squall currently out ahead of the front itself and I have no reason to believe that it will dissipate any time soon.  So – expect squally weather tomorrow and plan accordingly.

Yours Truly,

Cloudman 23 (Tonie A. Toney)

Friday, 11-21-2008

Several years ago this bag of corn chips was purchased somewhere in Southern California.  Shortly afterwards one of my two former students hiking the Mt. Whitney trail with me pulled it out of his backpack when we were taking a break at the 11,395′ benchmark near Consultation Lake.  Adam and Carl were game hikers and a joy to be with.  I’ve lost track of Adam but Carl (Opper) is an earth science professor at St. Petersburg College.  He makes me proud.

I must admit that right now I have a problem with this image:

IT ACCURATELY DEPICTS

HOW MY ABDOMEN FEELS THIS EVENING!

That strange statement will be explained in a moment.

Of course the reason why the bag is near bursting is because the atmospheric pressure upon it is so much less than it was where it was packaged and sealed.  The image also illustrates that when air rises, it expands.  Interestingly, the “heat” within the air inside the bag is spread out over a greater volume due to the expansion.  Therefore, were it measured, one would find the temperature of the air at any point inside the bag to be colder than it was at the beginning of the hike.  But, the amount of heat inside the bag would be essentially the same as at the beginning of the hike, except for the small amount lost due to radiation cooling of the bag’s surface.

Did you catch that?  When air rises and expands the temperature changes but the amount of heat remains essentially the same.  I was reminded many times during my years of teaching that many people do not discriminate between the word, heat and the word, temperature.  The fact is, they do not mean the same thing.  For example, it takes a lot more heat to increase a gallon of room temperature water up to boiling than to increase a quart of room temperature water up to boiling – though the temperatures of each once the heating was accomplished would be the same at boiling.

When unsaturated air rises, its temperature drops at a rate of about 1degree C. per 100 meters of ascent!  When saturated air rises its temperature drops at a rate of about 0.6 degrees C. per 100 meters.  The reduction (retardation) is due to the fact that when saturated air is rising and being further cooled by expansion – condensation occurs which releases heat; the heat released slows down the rate of expansion cooling.

This is the crux of adiabatic cooling, a subject which will come up sooner or later at this site (as well as adiabatic heating).  NOW: Back to the strange comment about my abdomen.

Even before we returned to our Florida home from our month-long stay at our mountain cabin I knew that something inside my lower abdomen was not quite right.  After getting back to Florida I investigated on-line and correctly reached the conclusion that I had a hernia.  The surgeon found a second one when he examined me.  I had surgery that took a little over two hours early in the afternoon on Monday.  The surgeon found a third hernia while he was in there looking around with his magic wand, the laparoscope.

All went well.  The surgery was done on an out-patient basis.  That’s not a complaint.  Once my head hit the pillow at home I felt very tired but I was not sleepy!  I was so relieved that I jabbered off and on all night long.  My poor wife!  Perhaps the medication played a role in that.

The surgery is the main reason for my inactivity on line – that plus the fact that there is no tropical weather going on right now, being near the end of the official season.  I’ve read that it’s over but my feeling always at this time of year is, “It ain’t over ’til it’s over!” spoken first (I think) by the great living sage, Yogi Berra.  Out-of- season storms have occurred though such events are relatively rare.  Here are two examples:

1) Hurricane Alice formed at 1 A.M. EST December 30, 1954 and continued as a hurricane into January 6, 1955.  Here’s a plot.

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-alice-1954

2) A hurricane formed on March 6, 1908.  It is called both “The March, 1908 Hurricane” and “1908 Hurricane #1.”  Here’s a plot.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1908/1/track.gif

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Never in my wildest dreams during my 41 years of teaching college/university meteorology did I ever think that I would be able to sit in my recliner at home (or anywhere else for that matter) with a personal computer on my lap allowing me to gaze at color images of our beautiful earth from near space in nearly real time!  Nor did I ever imagine being able to electronically transfer that image to a web-log for hundreds of interested (and interesting) people who visit the site.

The only thing about all of this that disappoints me is my not having been able to do similar things in the classroom for the nearly 25,000 students who took my courses.  I feel very fortunate, however, to have a wonderful following of Senior Institute participants at Central Florida Community College in Ocala.  In the classroom where I meet with them I am able to project on-line images on a large screen.  That they seem to enjoy my use of the technology in the classroom is icing on the cake.  I know how lucky I am to be able to continue after retirement, teaching and learning more and more about subjects I love.

Please take a look at this beautiful image.  Enlarge it as much as you are able.  I suggest right-clicking on the image and saving it so that you can study it using an image viewer of your choice; do that, ONLY after getting the image as large as you are able following the instructions immediately below.

TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS SHOULD GIVE YOU

A VERY LARGE IMAGE WHICH WILL ALLOW YOU TO SEE

DETAIL MUCH BETTER SO LONG AS YOU SCROLL

UP AND DOWN, RIGHT AND LEFT.

PLEASE BE PATIENT.

DEPENDING UPON YOUR CONNECTION SPEED,

LOADING MAY TAKE A WHILE.

This image was completed at 3:45 PM EST, November 10, 2008; the time stamp is at the upper left corner but is easy to read only when you enlarge.  The satellite that did this, GOES 12, is in geosynchronous orbit.  This simply means that it completes one orbit (revolution) in the same period of time the earth makes one rotation; that period of time is one day.  Also, it orbits within the equatorial plane.  Therefore, as the satellite travels rapidly though space it stays over the same point above earth (about 22,300 miles from the earth’s surface).  The distance between the satellite and earth’s surface is almost three earth diameters – so “high” that full disk images of earth can be captured.

With adequate enlargement you can see the aqua-blue of the shallow Bahama Platform.  You can also see ice and snow in the Southern Andes, Greenland, the Arctic Ocean, and the Antarctic peninsula.  You can see the remnant of what was once hurricane Paloma centered slightly north of Cuba.  You can see the bright tops of high clouds and the grey tones of the lower clouds.  If you know weather circulation patterns as marked by clouds you will see cyclonic circulation in both hemispheres.  In the North Pacific there is a very large cyclonic system approaching B.C. Washington, and Oregon.  There is a huge front stretching across the South Pacific.  The Intertropical Convergence Zone is very well marked by clouds in the Pacific.  There is a large extratropical cyclone over the Middle United States. The list goes on and on.

Being able to see all of this, to my mind, is a miracle.

Yours Truly,

Tonie Ansel Toney

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Tropical Storm Paloma formed last night from Tropical Depression # 17.  Currently its maximum sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph.  It is beginning to form an eyewall.  There has been no exceptional changes in the forecast path since my last posting.

A hurricane hunter mission is in the air now and information should be available around 1:00 PM EST.

Above is a high-resolution image from the visible spectrum – completed 11:45 AM EST (about an hour ago if you are reading this at post time).

I enjoy these great images provided by the Naval Research Lab in Monterey, California.  For someone like myself, so very interested in clouds, they are so much more revealing than some of the fuzzy images we often see from other sources.

To view other postings in inverse order, simply click on the Blog button at the top of this page.

Photo Source = Getty Images LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE

Bodies of hurricane Ike victims continue to be recovered – mostly in debris fields.  Here is a recent story on that subject:

http://www.khou.com/ike/stories/khou081007_tj_ike_body_found_goat_island.efe8b898.html

The Red Cross has a webpage where those living in the regions effected by the hurricane and those who have evacuated/relocated can register.  I urge you to do so.  There is also a search feature for those of you who are looking for particular survivors.  Here is the link:

https://disastersafe.redcross.org/default.aspx

For those of you looking for a person or persons, it is my most sincere hope that you find all is well.  For those of you not looking, it is also my hope that all is well.

There is a wide range within the estimate of the number of people still missing.  Here are some examples:

http://www.khou.com/news/state/stories/khou080928_mp_missing_people.bfbce24e.html

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5glUtWAW1BlcQcj1enZzk-kmvVSvwD93JQV980

http://www.click2houston.com/news/17651522/detail.html

Left click on image to enlarge.

From late September on through the remainder of the official hurricane season, systems that can develop into named storms begin to pop up in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.  One such development may be occurring now.

An interesting area in the vicinity of the Yucatan is being watched by the National Hurricane Center.  I have marked the approximate center which is hard to pinpoint since there is no apparent closed surface circulation at this time.  I may have my blue dot positioned a bit too far to the east.  It’s easier to do when using loops rather than stills like this image.  If you want to try that, here is a good page to get some nice loops:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

I have looked at some of the models on this one and there are indications that it could eventually move toward Florida and provide significant rainfall.  It is my opinion that interests along the West Coast of Florida should pay attention to this.  Right now the wind shear over the storm is about 20 mph.  There is some chance that it could slowly strengthen as it moves toward the northeast later this week.  Probably around the middle of the week it will be influencing some part of Florida.

Tonie A. Toney

12:50 PM EDT 9-28-08

Two independent left clicks should enlarge this image.

The storm that is at the North Carolina-South Carolina border may look like a hurricane but it is not. The National Weather Service is calling it a non-tropical cyclone. A more common term for such cyclones is “extratropical cyclone.” “Extra” means “outside of.” This refers to their developing outside of the tropics. Hurricanes are tropical cyclones. Even though in the northern hemisphere they both rotate counterclockwise around a central region of low pressure, tropical cyclones have warm cores and are often referred to as “warm core lows.” Relatively cold air occupies part of most extratropical cyclones and this is most certainly the case with this one. The doublet image of the system that I have prepared which you see (above) shows a visible satellite view of the storm earlier today and compares it with a surface analysis.  The two do not represent exactly the same time but it’s close; 44 minutes separate them. So, it’s a near match.

For those of you who know your frontal symbols, notice that there are three different types of fronts, all three representing boundaries between relatively warm air and relatively cool air. An occluded front arcs out from the center of the storm and there is a warm front whose axis runs ENE-WSW, and a stationary front curving down to the south.

In spite of the fact that it is extratropical and therefore un-named, it has many of the characteristics of a tropical storm.  People located in the storm’s vicinity should be alert to the potential hazards. Also, there is a strong chance that it will interact with tropical storm Kyle in the interesting Fujiwhara effect.  If you are interested in that phenomenon, see the following link and also view the post that followed it (at the next higher post location on the page).  To do that you will need to scroll to the top of the page and click on the “blog” tab.  That will access you to all entries.

Tropical Wave AL 93 Might Dance Within a Few Days!

I posted an item on Sept. 21, 2008 about the elevated structure with cement block exterior walls at the upper level (pictured at the very end of this entry).  That original post is still contained in this web-log.  In this post that you are now reading, I am adding additional comments in “blue” to get you (and me) up to date.  This has gone back and forth and I hope the identity of the building and the stated design of the block walls is correct.  It worries me because anyone in there could have been seriously injured or worse from collapsing cement blocks.  This first photograph is of a cement block structure In the Naranja Lakes Condominium Development near Homestead, Florida.  In this particular structure there was a fatality due to poured concrete headers and blocks coming down upon a resident huddled inside – a real tragedy.  There were at least 3 such fatalities in that neighborhood; it’s amazing that there were not more. TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS SHOULD ENLARGE THIS IMAGE A GREAT DEAL.

This next paragraph reflects that I had already made a previous change in the original entry.

It is my understanding that the structure (pictured below) belongs to a yacht club. A reader wrote in after I originally posted this because I had misidentified it as the Houston Yacht Club.  However, he indicated that the Houston Yacht Club is “a three story coral colored structure and while some water entered the first floor it is essentially undamaged.”  You can check out his comment.

Since then, a couple of readers have identified the building as belonging to the Seabrook Sailing Club just north of the Clear Creek channel.  “Kent” adds, “The cinder-block wash-away walls collapsed as designed, leaving the shell structure intact. It was originally built after Hurricane Carla in the early 1960s. Hurricane Alicia did a similar number on the building in 1983. I think the club is trying to decide if they should rebuild on the current shell or scrap it.”  End quote.

Though this building is elevated and held fast on its foundation, the surge was too high and the waves too forceful for the cement block.  I don’t believe this damage can be attributed directly to wind force but rather, the surge with its waves on top.  For those of you who have felt the pounding of moderate surf against your body – imagine what this cement block must have endured before yielding.  I see wires and perhaps some straps but I see no evidence of corefill in the block nor do I see very much rebar reinforcement in the image.  At the time that I wrote this I had no idea that upper level walls were deliberately built to wash away.  If this is true, so much for the contents and/or anyone who might have been unable to get out because they waited too long.  On the other hand, maybe it was just used for storage.  I had heard of “break-away” lower level walls.  In fact I have a friend who built a pole house with that design. For quick information rebar and poured concrete reinforcement read the second paragraph in the following link and click on the photo on the bottom right.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinder_block

Please visit the rest of this web-log go to “blog” at the top of this page or click here.  http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.

Though if it does occur it won’t be as stark as this Pacific Ocean weather event, but it should still be quite interesting.  If you are interested please read the previous post.  If this is the only one you see, scroll to the top of the page and click “Blog” or go to http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/

Tonie A. Toney (Cloudman23)

A second left click should enlarge image further.

There is a possibility that the very interesting Fujiwhara effect might occur within the next few days.  In the image above I have placed a red dot upon the tropical disturbance that is tormenting Puerto Rico and Eastern Hispaniola and a light blue dot upon an extratropical low that is off the Eastern Seaboard and probably kicking up some big waves.  If the tropical system shoots north as the models are predicting, the two could interact in the Fujiwhara effect.  Here is a well-written link about that phenomenon.

http://weather.about.com/od/hurricaneformation/a/Fujiwhara.htm

The extratropical system might even back up a bit in response to a rotation around a common axis with the tropical system.  Go to this link now if you would like to see a rendition of what might happen:  (There are four helpful buttons – reverse, stop. forward, and single step).

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?eta_pcpn_slp_thkn+///6

SPECIAL NOTE:  THE LINK IMMEDIATELY ABOVE IS VERY TIME SENSITIVE.  IT MAY NOT SHOW WHAT I’VE DISCUSSED IN THIS BLOG UNLESS YOU VIEW IT ON THE DAY THIS WAS POSTED.   AFTERWARDS THE FORECAST MIGHT CHANGE.  IF THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT ACTUALLY COMES TO FRUITION WE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE IT VIA LOOPS THAT ACCELERATE TIME.

Of course, I did not come up with this notion on my own.  My tip came from the WeatherUnderground blog posted by Dr. Jeff Masters at 10:43 AM EDT today (September 23, 2008).  He also mentioned it yesterday.

Natural processes can be lethal and cause heartbreak but they can also be breathtakingly beautiful.  If the Fujiwhara effect happens to occur, perhaps we will have the opportunity to watch two spiraling systems dance together for a while, just as spiraling galaxies can do as they get close to each other.  Let’s hope the prediction is “right on” and that we can focus upon an event that is NOT creating havoc as did Ike.  Enjoy!

It is my understanding that this structure (below) belongs to a yacht club. A reader wrote in after I originally posted this because I had misidentified it as the Houston Yacht Club.  However, he indicated that the Houston Yacht Club is “a three story coral colored structure and while some water entered the first floor it is essentially undamaged.”  You can check out his comment.

Though this building is elevated and held fast on its foundation, the surge was too high and the waves too forceful for the cement block.  I don’t believe this damage can be attributed directly to wind force but rather, the surge with its waves on top.  For those of you who have felt the pounding of moderate surf against your body – imagine what this cement block must have endured before yielding.  I see wires and perhaps some straps but I see no evidence of corefill in the block nor do I see very much rebar reinforcement in the image.  For quick information on that type of reinforcement read the second paragraph in the following link and click on the photo on the bottom right.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinder_block

A footnote for my regular readers:  You can check for yourself but it looks according to the models as though the tropical disturbance addressed in the previous post is going to move northward.  Still, I fear for those in Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.  The rains are something they don’t need right now.

Please visit the rest of this web-log at http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.

TWO LEFT CLICKS WILL ENLARGE IMAGES A GREAT DEAL

According to the National Hurricane Center, the tropical wave in the Caribbean has a medium potential for tropical cyclone development.  For those of you who don’t understand that here is a brief explanation.

In order for a system to be cyclonic there must be a rotation of the wind around a low pressure center.  Presently there is no indication of a closed rotation in this otherwise impressive system.  A tropical wave (also called a tropical disturbance) becomes a tropical depression if rotation begins.  Ordinarily the rotation itself signals a maturing (growth) of the system.  Once rotation begins, the conservation of angular momentum kicks in such that as the wind spirals closer and closer to the center its velocity increases.  Tropical depressions can intensify into tropical storms (39-73 mph) and the latter can intensify into hurricanes (74 or more mph).  Here is the formal statement from the Hurricane Center:

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. A TROPICAL WAVE…ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES…AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.  THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION…AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE

FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY…IF NECESSARY.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY.

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On the infrared satellite image above from the U.S. Naval Research Lab, I have marked two islands that don’t need any more precipitation for a while due to recent tropical systems having dumped heavy (and deadly) loads upon them.  Flooding and mudslides are likely if this disturbance moves as expected, over the islands.  For the same reasons, Cuba also stands a risk of increased problems.

Please visit the rest of this web-log at http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.

If you would like to see a photo of the “Lone House” taken back in May click on the link below.  Some of the dialog is interesting too.

Thanks to “DewDrop” for letting me know about it.

http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-89312

Please visit the rest of this web-log at http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.

Thanks to images posted by Dr. Jeff Masters this morning on the WeatherUnderground.com site, aerial images before and after have confirmed the location of the lonely little house that seems to have survived the ravages of Ike.  I have reworked the scale of the images he posted and placed red arrows marking the house that has been being addressed in this web-log.  It confirms the suspicions of myself and others that the house was either rebuilt or replaced between the time that Google loaded it’s images and today.  After I post the before and after images I will paste in Dr. Masters’ specific comments about Gilchrist.  Remember, for an enlarged view – left click two times.

Why did Gilchrist get destroyed

and Will Gilchrist be rebuilt?

By Dr. Jeff Masters

WeatherUnderground.com http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

“It’s rare to see a town so completely destroyed by a hurricane, to the point where you can’t even see the wreckage. The neighboring towns of Crystal Beach, to the south, and High Island, to the north, were also mostly destroyed, but weren’t swept clean of nearly all structures and wreckage. This is because Gilchrist was built in an unusually vulnerable place. It’s bad enough to situate your town on a low-lying peninsula, as was the case for Crystal Beach. But in Gilchrist’s case, the town was located at the narrowest point of the Bolivar Peninsula, at a point where it was only a few hundred meters wide (Figure 2). Not only did Gilchrist suffer a head-on assault by Ike’s direct storm surge of 14+ feet, topped by 20′ high battering waves, the town also suffered a reverse surge once the hurricane had passed. As Ike moved to the north, the counter-clockwise flow of wind around the storm pushed Galveston Bay’s waters back across the town of Gilchrist from northwest to southeast. This second surge of water likely finished off anything the main storm surge had left.

I hope the government will see fit to buy up the land that was once the town of Gilchrist and make it into a park. Building a town in Gilchrist’s location makes as much sense as building a town on the sides of an active volcano. (Unfortunately, there are plenty of people who have done just that, such as on the slopes of Vesuvius in Italy). If past history is any guide, Gilchrist will be rebuilt, and it will take another mighty hurricane to permanently take down the town. That was the case for the town of Indianola, Texas, which lay in a vulnerable low-lying location on the shores of Matagorda Bay in the mid-1800’s. Indianola was the second largest port in the state of Texas, and home to 5,000 people. In 1875, a powerful Category 3 hurricane piled up a huge storm surge as it came ashore in Indianola. The surge destroyed 3/4 of the town’s 2,000 buildings, and killed 176 people. The city was rebuilt, but in 1886, a devastating Category 4 hurricane swept almost the entire town of Indianola into Matagorda Bay, killing another 250 townspeople. The people of Indianola finally gave up and moved elsewhere, and the ruins of their town now lie under fifteen feet of water in Matagorda Bay.”

Please visit the rest of this web-log at http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.

Please note north arrow. House is marked with a blue dot. Source = Google Earth

Many people interested in a web-log topic forget to check the comments.  A very kind person responded to my questions about the lone house shown in the photo I posted yesterday.  His is one of the comments which you can click upon if you go to the original posting. I have asked the contributor if he minds my posting his comments in the main body of the blog so fewer people will miss it.  I have not yet received a reply but remember, just go to comments and you can read his input.

In my opinion it was especially kind of him to respond in light of the fact that his structure, to the east a little further down the highway and on the other side was swept away.  Even though it apparently was not his permanent residence, it is still very painful to suffer such a loss, particularly, as in his case, when it was a place of many fond family memories.  So, my heart goes out to him.  In my opinion, it would be best for you to read his input before moving on with this.

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Apparently, the reason why I could not find the house in last night’s extensive search is because the aerial views available show the structure before it was vastly improved in what was probably a storm-related remodeling.

His cues for identifying the house were the two whitish areas to the east which are slabs of structures no longer there.  Julie’s Market marks the location of the pad on the same side of the highway as the house.  I have it marked in the image.  Notice the diagonal edge on the northwest corner of the slab and the match for the shape of Julie’s in the Google Earth image.  He points out that the patch of dark vegetation west of Julie’s can be seen in both the picture and on Google maps.

I think his zeroing in on Church Street and the house is accurate and his explanation for why the house looks different now is probably right on.  Remember, this man has spent a lot of time over several years in this area.  I expect that, just like my house in Homestead was rebuilt after Andrew and improved in the process, both structurally and architecturally, this house in Gilchrist probably underwent the same after it was damaged during Rita.  We went from a conventional gable end roof to a Boston hip so, just as this house does, our former house looks altogether different in the aerial image.  The remodeled version of the house which you see in the photograph from yesterday’s post (below) has dormers added.  They could very well be false dormers or dormer skylights.  That is what I was looking for last night during my search.

I also think he is correct about the wall.  When I zoomed down upon it very close with Google Earth, it appears to be wider than a conventional fence.  It might have been made of cement block.  Anyway, it’s gone now but perhaps it did provide protection at a critical time before being undercut.  I think he might have gotten a little mixed up in his reference to Rollover.  I found 4 versions of Rollover and those roadways are adjacent to each other and well east of the house site.  But everything else computes for me.  Of course I’ll leave it to you to decide.

Wouldn’t it be interesting to get input from the actual owner of the house?  I’d like to know what measures will be necessary in order to re-occupy the structure and whether or not he/she or they plan to do just that.

LATE BREAKING INPUT!  A READER FOUND THIS PHOTO IN A SEARCH AND HAS SUGGESTED THAT BEING ON SLIGHTLY HIGHER GROUND MIGHT HAVE BEEN A FACTOR IN SAVING THIS HOUSE!  INTERESTING!  SEE THE IMAGE BELOW:

Please visit the rest of this web-log at http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.

Why was this house in Gilchrist spared?

I’m hoping that someone can explain this to me.  I saw a photo of this house this morning in the St. Petersburg Times, print version.  It was not hard to find photos of it on several websites this evening.  I have many questions and no answers.  It was described in the paper and on television as being in Gilchrist, Texas.  I did a Google Earth survey of Gilchrist where I could get an oblique view as well as a vertical view close enough to the surface to easily be able to see the gross details of the structures.   I also did visible scans as close as I could get to the surface using Map Quest and Google Maps.  I was unable, using cues from the photograph, to find the house.  This leads me to believe that it is new.

Was it built under a different set of codes than the totally destroyed dwellings on that beachfront strip?

Was it built by a very smart contractor or owner well beyond the requirements of the existing codes?

Is it safely habitable now?  It appears to me that there is considerable erosion, even undercutting, at the margins of the structure.

If it is not safely habitable can the weaknesses be relatively easily repaired?

Someone on the Weather Channel said that the reason it survived is because it was elevated.  It doesn’t seem likely to me that it was the only elevated house in that lengthy flattened strip.  Why did others not survive?

Could there possibly be some sort of breakwater or wall out of range of the photo that could have protected this structure more than the others?

Wouldn’t it be interesting to know why this house was the lone survivor within the scope of this photo?

Does anyone know the story of this house?

Please visit the rest of this web-log at http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorial items scattered about and more will be added in time.  At the end of this page there is a cue to click to the previous page or the next page.

Image courtesy of NOAA

What follows is an excerpt from a 1998 publication titled AMERICA’S HURRICANE THREAT under the auspices of the South Carolina Sea Grant Consortium.  What I’m showing you is a small part of their sobering account of what can happen to houses in the strong winds of a hurricane.  The house on the left in the image above is mildly damaged compared to many in that neighborhood.  I have been reading the above-mentioned report tonight due to my special interest in Hurricane Andrew.  Those of you who have been following this web-log since its beginning 18 days ago might recall having read somewhere that our home was a total loss in that 1992 hurricane.  In time, I have written about the experience in a recent posting dealing with window protection.  Here is the excerpt from the report:

“Andrew totally destroyed 63,000 homes and partly damaged another 110,000, making 250,000 people homeless. With roofs damaged or blown off, rain following the hurricane poured inside structures, soaking and collapsing Sheetrock and destroying billions of dollars worth of furniture, carpeting, televisions, and other items. The insurance industry estimates that 25-40% of insured losses were due to slipshod construction practices.

Most homeowners do not give a second thought to their roofs-until they leak or disappear. Yet roofs are the Achilles heel of homes in hurricane-prone areas from Maine to Texas.

As strong winds strike a building, their flow is diverted, swirling over and around the structure. Think of a mountain stream roaring against a giant boulder, which deflects the current. The stream flow accelerates around the obstacle, resulting in rapids. In the same way, hurricane winds speed up around corners and edges, creating suction that pulls on building materials like a super-powerful vacuum hose. Fierce gusts and suction pressure make a dangerous combination, especially for roofs. They yank off tiles and shingles, first at the roof edge and then along its slope as you’d peel an orange. During Andrew, huge numbers of tiles were stripped from roofs this way, and carried off by high winds, they crashed through windows by tens of thousands.

If you lose a window or door during a hurricane, you’re in big trouble. Extreme winds push through an opening in a building, increasing air pressure inside like blowing up a balloon beyond its capacity. If you force enough air pressure inside a house, it can break at its weakest point, usually the roof.

As roofs are being pushed off from within, they are being pried loose from the outside. Peel away tiles or shingles and you’ll find a covering of roofing paper, under which is plywood attached to rafters. But a roof won’t stand much of a chance in hurricane-force winds if builders haphazardly tie down plywood to rafters-if they use too few nails or miss the rafters altogether with their nail ‘guns.’ After Andrew, engineers reported that many contractors had routinely missed their marks. ‘With the use of automatic nail guns, the workman lost his feel for the nailing process,’ said Saffir. ‘The result was that many nails went through the sheathing into thin air, not into the truss or rafter below. This was a common occurrence.’

If your plywood sheeting flies away in the wind, you’ve lost more than just a roof covering. You’ve also lost a portion of the house’s structural integrity. That is, plywood sheets are often the sole lateral bracing for the rafters, actually holding the roof together. So with the plywood gone, the rafters are loosely tethered in the wind.

To compound the problem, many contractors fail to tightly fasten wood gable ends-the flat ends of a pitched roof-to walls. So when a powerful gust hits an unbraced gable, the gable end can be pulled loose at the wall, allowing wind to enter the building. If the roof sheathing is pulled off at the gable end, the rafters can fall over.

During hurricane Andrew, tens of thousands of homes were damaged due to such failures in roofs.”

NOTE FROM CLOUDMAN23:  Many of you reading this could be living in dwellings without adequate roof truss tie-downs and/or with poor roof sheathing attachment.  Do you know what the codes were when your house was built?  Do you feel confident that your dwelling was built according to code?  Were the inspections thorough and particular or were they inadequate?  For some, those are hard questions to answer.  In any event, please evacuate if Ike is heading your way.  Heed the warnings.  Please.

Please visit the rest of this web-log at http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.  At the end of this page there is a cue to click to the previous page or the next page.

We had .80 of an inch of rain yesterday. The wash in the front yard finally began to flow to make the cottonwoods happy, although some underground water was already moving to them from prior rains.

From excavations I have created small ponds that remain after the surface runoff is over.

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Here are yesterdays sky photo’s. At the Weather Channel they are calling our monsoon season the “summer thunderstorm season”. Last year we had 12 inches in two months here, the year before, 16 inches. Mostly the benefit of the La Nina effects. This year has stared out fine as well with 3 inches in the first 11 days of July.

We have not been told our monsoon season has retired for the summer thunderstorm one. They appear to be letting us down easily by calling the monsoon season a fixed time from June 15 to September 30. Next year perhaps they will drop the monsoon title. I can only figure out two likely reasons to not call a monsoon season such; it does not actually compare to southeast Asia or India ones, or the business interest feel the title scares potential newcomers from coming to a place with a; Oh my God! A monsoon! The monsoons are coming! Run for your lives! You’re crazy to move there! But summer thunderstorms? How cozy.

I really liked the cirrus like clouds above the main cumulus ones

-and

and

and

and

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Yesterday had a familiar occurrence.  A storm formed overhead, then drifted west.  I had heavy rain for about 10 seconds.  Then the storm expanded rapidly as it left, causing heavy rain just a mile to the west.  It went on to become a large thunderstorm crossing over to another county and then country.

and then

then as the day ends, some declining storms approaching from the east fizzle out over our already worked over cool air.  While it was 100 something in Phoenix, it was 72 degrees here.

I still await a truly sever thunderstorm to film for you.