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"Do You See What Happens?!" One Bank Explains The "Implications" Of Failure Friday

If you’ve been following along over the past several days, you already know how things are likely to go this week.

And if you needed some kind of confirmation for what you already knew, all you have to do – as we noted earlier this morning – is look at the dollar. 428 more words

10Y

It's Falling Apart: Reflation Trade Shrivels Up And Dies As Markets Sour On Risk

Well, the dollar is under pressure on Monday, just as we said it would be on Sunday evening.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as traders digested the failure of the GOP health care bill on Friday. 712 more words

10Y

Mind The Cross-Atlantic "Gaps": Your Week Ahead Preview

Earlier, we talked a bit about Donald Trump’s waning political capital and the extent to which rising policy uncertainty in the US and declining political risk in Europe may ultimately lead to a narrowing of rate differentials, painting a bearish picture for the dollar. 1,367 more words

Trump

So You Want An Excuse To Prefer Stocks Over Bonds? Fine, Here's One

Listen, it’s all about “relative” attractiveness these days when it comes to assessing opportunities at the asset class level.

It’s kind of like being at the bar for last call and all the… 561 more words

10Y

One Bank Warns: The "Dark Side" Has Reappeared Just As "The Force" Looks Weak

There are a lot of different ways to assess the week that was both in markets and on Capitol Hill.

But if you’re a trader, there’s pretty much only one conclusion you can come to in terms of the reflation meme: it took a hit this week. 673 more words

Trump

10Y Treasury Shorts "Aggressively" Cut After Fed Hike, But...

Allow us to ruin the suspense. “But…” there’s still a “bigly” short.

As we noted earlier this afternoon, although specs have trimmed 10Y Treasury shorts over the last two weeks (they cut around $7.4m/DV01 in the week ended Tuesday, the second straight week of pared bearish bets), eurodollar shorts are still sitting at a record and as a percentage of open interest, the net spec short position in Treasury futs (TY eq.) is still a 3-sigma- 335 more words

10Y

"Hope": Health Bill Failure Isn't Death Knell For Trump Trade, One Bank Says

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: one-way bets and crowded trades are inherently susceptible to getting caught horribly offsides when sh*t goes wrong. 554 more words

Trump