Tags » 10Y

Is The Record Treasury Short A Contrarian Indicator? This Scatter Plot Has The Answer

I’ve spilled 46 gallons (exactly) of digital ink talking about the multi-sigma short in Treasurys.

In fact, I’ve written so much about it that I’m inclined to think that if I were you, I’d be sick of hearing about it. 184 more words


Stocks Bore Me, But People Sure Do Love A Good Bullish Thesis

So the first part of this post is an unedited version of a piece that should be published elsewhere later today.

I wrote two versions, one designed for a more general audience and one that… well… one that was just me playing around and being cynical about stocks and the relative deficiency of Americans’ analytical skills. 729 more words


10 Black Swans

I’ve seen this posted elsewhere, but I think it’s worth highlighting here for those who might not have seen it yet.

For around a quarter century, Credit Suisse has dared to imagine what could happen to derail their consensus views on markets. 415 more words


Trump: 3 Scenarios For Markets

Wondering how markets will perform under Trump?

Of course you are.

Since no one is sure exactly what the ubiquitous “first 100 days” will bring, it’s probably best to explore a range of possible outcomes. 207 more words


Daily Kickstart (The Day The Earth Stood Still)

The Ringling Bros. may have pulled up the stakes for good, but the circus is in town today in Washington, complete with all of the usual attractions including an orange elephant, who at 12 noon will “trump”et to an awestruck crowd. 821 more words


Daily Kickstart (ECB Preview; Why Did Tarzan And Suicide Squad Suck So Bad?)

It feels quiet out there on Thursday morning.

On Wednesday, a fairly potent one-two punch from CPI data and Janet Yellen (she’ll speak again on Thursday evening) pushed Treasury yields higher across the curve and I for one, will be watching to see the market’s reaction to comments from Trump Treasury pick Steven Mnuchin who faces a Senate Finance Committee confirmation hearing on Thursday. 1,124 more words


Chart Check (Spot The Odd One Out)

At this point, you should be well versed in what we mean when we talk about the “reflation trade” or the “Trump trade” as it were. 252 more words