I’m in Barcelona now for NIPS’2016 — or should I say, for NIPS’ Symposia and Workshops, since the main conference this year… *sold out*. That’s at once exciting and frightening: is machine learning the next dot.com? 380 more words

## Tags » Bayesian

#### In Barcelona for NIPS'2016

#### Bayesian Methods for Hackers

Main Author: Cam Davidson-Pilon

Link: https://github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers

Description:

The most hands-on and practical coverage of Bayesian Inference I have been exposed to. It is both a GitHub collection of iPython notebooks and a real living, breathing book.

#### Reflection on 538, Trump, and Bayes

Was the run-up to the recent election an example of failed statistics? Pundits have been saying how bad the polling was. Sure, there might have been some things pollsters could have done better, but consider: FiveThirtyEight, … 373 more words

#### How do people think about probability?

Nov 27, JDN 2457690

*(This topic was chosen by vote of my Patreons.)*

In neoclassical theory, it is assumed (explicitly or implicitly) that human beings judge probability in something like the optimal Bayesian way: We assign prior probabilities to events, and then when confronted with evidence we infer using the observed data to update our prior probabilities to posterior probabilities. 2,047 more words

#### Bayesian Inference VII - Bayesian Updating Continuous Priors and Data

We finally got to the part of Bayesian Updating when both data and prior are continuous. It is, like always, not very different from Bayesian Updating with discrete data and priors except of that we use the PDFs and not the PMFs. 336 more words

#### Bayesian Inference VI - Beta Distribution

We’ve seen last time how Bayesian Updating with continuous priors works. As mentioned back then, it isn’t always easy to calculate the total probability of X (p(x)). 112 more words

#### Uncertainty quantification for ion channel screening and risk prediction

This post accompanies our new paper in Wellcome Open Research.

Regular readers of this blog will know that I worry about uncertainty in the numbers we are using to model drug action on electrophysiology quite a lot – see our… 2,130 more words