I’m currently working on a problem where I need to sample from a very specific **custom pdf**. It has taken me a lot of time to get this pdf written down but now that I finally have it, I’m just missing one key ingredient… the… 1,426 more words

## Tags » Bayesian

#### Selection function in STAN

#### What Clever Hans can teach "Bayesians" about how science works and why data is not enough.

Anyone who’s ever taken an introductory psych course has probably heard the story of “Clever Hans,” the horse who, for a time, was credited with possessing intellectual gifts far above his pay grade. 2,710 more words

#### Decision Making: why you need to know about the Bayes Theorem

In this section of the blog we will take you into the process of decision making, and we will start with introducing you the Bayes Theorem and why it is so important in the decision making process. 1,035 more words

#### Approximate Bayesian Computation

Greetings, my blog readers!

This is my first post in 2018. In this post I will share with you a very simple way of performing inference using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) – not to be confused with Approximate Bootstrap Confidence interval, which is also “ABC”. 640 more words

#### perceptions of likelihood

That’s from this Github repository, maintained by *Zoni Nation*, having this description. The original data are from a study by Sherman Kent at the U.S. 57 more words

#### Confidence intervals and that IPCC: Why climate scientists need statistical help

At Andrew Gelman’s blog (*Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science*), Ben Goodrich makes the interesting observation in a length discussion about *confidence intervals…* 693 more words

#### Adjusting hyper-parameters: First step into Bayesian optimisation of DNNs

A few months ago I wrote about some work I was doing on improving the way a certain kind of particle is detected at CMS, by replacing the existing algorithm with a neural network. 1,194 more words