Tags » Bayesian

A Fabulous Paper on P Values, Confidence Limit, and, yes, Bayes

I thank my friend and colleague Alan Girling for drawing my attention to a recent issue of the statistical journal ‘Significance’.

This issue of the journal followed close on the heels of the UK general election and so, not surprisingly, the failure of polls to predict the outcome provided the topic for the feature article. 191 more words

Richard Lilford

MH370, the search continues

Why this is unlikely to affect the outcome of the MH370 search

If this really is a flaperon from MH370, and that remains to be confirmed, then it’s good news in a way because we could use wind and current data for the Indian ocean to determine where it might have gone into the water. 133 more words

Aerospace Safety

Mathematica Deep Dive Topics

This is just a (rather public) listing of the deep dive topics that I wish to write about with a thorough understanding (in no particular order).   234 more words

Data Scientist

What is the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow?

The sunrise problem is a problem first considered by Laplace that asks for the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow given a history of sunrises. 411 more words


The difference between Bayesian and frequentist

Today, I’ll talk about the “Big Ideological divide” in Statistics: the Bayesian method versus the frequentist method. I won’t tell you that one is better, I’ll just try to give a short overview of what the two terms mean. 1,267 more words


These statistics plots are very cute (p<0.05)

My god, this was a long day… so I was happy to see this plot in my feeds (hat tip to Dave Giles):

The author is the great  152 more words

Predicting Success (or Failure) of Interventions to Improve Care

CLAHRCs are concerned with improving care, but many initiatives fail. This article seeks a method to predict success or failure in advance. The CLAHRC WM Director recently came across a pair of papers that used Bayes theorem to predict successful organisational change interventions. 276 more words

Richard Lilford