Tags » IARPA

To Realize the QDDR's Early-Warning Goal, Invest in Data-Making

The U.S. Department of State dropped its second Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review, or QDDR, last week (here). Modeled on the Defense Department’s Quadrennial Defense Review, the QDDR lays out the department’s big-picture concerns and objectives so that—in theory—they can guide planning and shape day-to-day decision-making. 1,022 more words

Forecasting

US Social Surveillance Abuse Puts Civil Liberties in Jeopardy

By Vladimir Platov | New Eastern Outlook | January 3, 2015

According to various publications in the American and foreign media, the United States has created a global system of cyber espionage that allows the interception and processing of personal data around the globe in violation of fundamental human rights.

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United States

SciCast - Crowdsourcing future development in science and technology

Today’s guest blog post is written by Alan I. Leshner, CEO, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).

If crowdsourcing can raise money for research worldwide, why can’t it raise questions and predict probabilities of future developments in science and technology? 152 more words

Anthro In The Media

The Hedgehog and the Fox Redux

Many fund managers will be aware of Philip Tetlock’s book “Expert Political Judgment” published in 2005. In the book, Tetlock analyzes forecasts collected from 284 experts over twenty years. 534 more words

Gaming For Clarity Recognizes Intelligence Biases

A recent press report quoted unnamed US intelligence sources saying Russia had no intention of invading the Ukraine. The appraisal became the subject of considerable debate when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his nation’s military into Ukraine’s Crimea region. 155 more words

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