Former trader Richard Breslow is a skeptical fellow, which is probably why I like him so much and why our views on markets generally tend to coincide. 496 more words
Tags » S&P 500
When a tail event isn’t actually a tail event…
Via Morgan Stanley
40 more words
Large equity drawdowns are more common than you might think: Start at any date since 1950,and the likelihood of the S&P 500 being 15%+ lower after 12 months is 8%.
The market always needs a story – a reason to get out of bed in the morning, so to speak.
In the post-election environment, “reflation” is that story and the extent to which that narrative is waxing versus waning pretty much determines how we’re going to trade on any given day (USDJPY is perhaps the best real time referendum on whether the market is still buying the Trumpian fairy tale). 552 more words
I thoroughly enjoy exposing investors to “alternative facts.”
Just call me “Kellyanne Conway” (there’s something I never thought I’d say).
Equity markets provide plenty of opportunities when it comes to shedding light on inconvenient truths. 267 more words